Saturday, January 24, 2009

Modest Model Failure

The numerical models from this morning and earlier underplayed the precipitation over the region. The latest runs appear to have caught up with reality with light precipitation this evening. As a result we are seeing a wintry mix of rain, rain/snow mix, and some light snow over the lowlands, particularly north of Seattle. There is a dusting at some locations right now..particularly above 200-300 ft. The latest 24-h snowfall from the latest high resolution model is attached. Amounts up to around 1 inch are possible..but I suspect that such values will be on the high side. So no big snowstorm, but light snow is possible tonight. The precipitation should be over by 10 AM tomorrow.

22 comments:

Anonymous said...

11:10pm north Queen Anne (350ft) light snow/rain mix. Not sticking to pavement, but grass is turning white. Let's hope it's over soon!

cp said...

Snowing in Haller Lake area of Seattle (north). Everything but the road is covered. TG!!

Anonymous said...

In West Seattle it's snowing at a good rate with a snow/ice glazing over the roads, grass roves, and everything. Hopefully we'll see more in terms of accumulation in the morning.

Anonymous said...

Snow on my lawn in Lake Forest Park and 37 degrees. Wonder what it will look like in the morning?

andycottle said...

Light snow here with grass all white(though just 'white' trace)lol. Currently 32 with dp 30 here atop Hollywood hill, Woodinville elev 300ft.

stevemcn said...

Just a dusting down here in S. Renton/East Hill, at 400'. Enough to stick on the lawn and the leaves.

Anonymous said...

I was shocked last night before I went to bed to see the ground covered with snow in Bothell. I told everyone at work that Cliff said it wouldn't snow. oops!

mb in Port Angeles said...

Good morning, all. Surprise dusting of snow in Port Angeles. Roofs and ground and porch railing, but not stuck to the street.

Anonymous said...

Half an inch of snow near Stanwood at 300'. It is covering the roads. Still snowing. I lost my bet :(

Anonymous said...

It snewed some in the Portland area this morning but it's not sticking to the roads. the 'white stuff' where did weather people come up with that term?

Anonymous said...

Interesting that the models were right a few days ago, then wrong right before the snow.

Models certainly aren't rocket science.

So now the models say it will snow on Tuesday. Does that mean it WON'T snow on Tuesday? ;-).

We have an inch or so here in the Sammamish HIGHest highlands. Looks like any further precip will most certainly fall as snow.

Brian said...

Have about an inch on the grass, trees, and everything in between. Got about a half inch. or 3/4 inch. on the roads. Very, very pretty. :)

Union Hill, Redmond. About 550'-600' feet. No more snow falling.

Anonymous said...

Here in Rose Hill, Kirkland, (250') we have a dusting of snow on the lawn. It's snowing very lightly right now.

Anonymous said...

8:45AM Duvall
We've had baby snow flakes since last night. They are sticking to the roads, but some areas are still showing through. Our picnic table has about 1" of snow on it. We were very happy to see that the earlier models were incorrect - our family had been crossing our fingers all day yesterday hoping it would snow last night. Yay : ) Now, the question is, when is MORE snow coming?

richard hefley said...

I'm looking for historical weather data for disparate locations, particularly in east Jefferson county. Is there a site, or sites, which record daily temps, windspeed and direction (wind-roses are great), rainfall etc.?
As a consulting arborist, I must continually explain to clients the impact weather has on our trees, but I need the local data.
Thank you,
Richard

Ella said...

500', Shoreline/Lake Forest Park. We got about 1/2 an inch or so, and it's still lightly precipitating. There's snow on the road in front of my house, but there's a weird microclimate in front of my house; it's always a couple of degrees colder RIGHT THERE.

Julia said...

Shoreline Richmond Highlands - elevation ~350 ft

A light dusting - started some last night and is still falling very very lightly at 9am.

Nothing sticking to the roads - accumulation less than 1/4 inch on the deck.

Very pretty!

JayDee said...

Richard:

While not "official", Weather Underground has a network of personal weather stations that often log historical weather information. Enter your location at http://www.wunderground.com/
and click on the "Wundermap" feature. It takes awhile to load, but it shows weather stations near your area.

Climatological data is a little harder to get but some is available at:
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/data/

Anonymous said...

Didn't Alan Greenspan say he missed predicting the current economic mess because of a "modest model failure".
I love the fact that the models now are what fail and not the humans who put their faith in them.

andycottle said...

This could possibly be snow for most folks as the 1000ft temp for 10am Tue morning is 29, 30 degrees with northerly flow and NELY flow at the , 2k, 3k FT level with temp of 28, 29 degrees there. 925mb temps also look marginally cool enough and about -3c or so. However, 850mb temps look to be about -3 or -4c with due westerly flow. And with this westerly flow comes the snow and or rain shadow as shown below. We just might miss out on a marginal snow chance Tue morning, but lets hope the central sound folks get more snow for the time frame shown.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2009012512/images_d2/wa_pcp3.54.0000.gif

---------

Picked up roughly .03" worth of snow, but just enough to make things look preaty outside. Currently 31 with LIGHT snow and dp of 29 here in Woodinville, Hollywood hill at 300ft.

Josh-B said...

Models without looking up in the sky without real eyes!!

Anonymous said...

Olalla: Light dusting of snow on the lawns and cars, but not pavement. Overnight temp couldn't have been much below 32. We left Federal Way last night about 7, drove into increasing rain through Tacoma and home; it had nearly stopped when we got home.

"'white stuff' where did weather people come up with that term?" It's something you can say on a family show.

- Pete