Monday, November 16, 2009
Lots happening. As the satellite image shows a band of moisture, associated with strong southerly and southwesterly winds and warm temperatures is streaming right into us. Complicating the picture have been a progression of low pressure centers that are riding northeastward on the cold side. One low pressure area moved by this morning, producing strong winds on the coast and the NW interior (50-60 mph gusts). Other areas gusted to 30-35 mph. A weak disturbance will move offshore tonight and a strong one will be here tomorrow morning. So expect the winds to increase later today and tomorrow am at least as high as this morning. But this is not a major windstorm like the one in Dec 2006.
Yesterday there were reasons to suspect that the major windstorm suggested by the American models was not in the cards...the UKMET and ECMWF models...as good as and better than ours--had a weaker solution with the low more to the north. The current solution is somewhere in between. The low center is also divided in two...always bad for a big storm.
Heavy precipitation is falling in the Olympics right now and more is expected today....both there, the Willapa Hills and the N. Cascades.
A few graphics of interest:
Here is the predicted sea level pressure at 7 AM tomorrow morning--strong low over Vancouver Island and intense pressure difference on the N. Washington coast and Strait of Georgia. Windy but not exceptional (30-40 mph gusts ) in Seattle, but NW WA and the coast could see 60-70 mph.
Here are the winds tonight as the first weak disturbance moves by. Very strong winds on the coast.
The 24-h rainfall ending 4 AM tomorrow morning--up to 5-10 inches (red colors) over the Olympics, Willapa Hills, and N Cascades. Seattle will get an inch or two before this is over. So rake up those leaves near drains!
High resolution view of precipitation
Posted by Cliff Mass at 11:15 AM