This is a November that just keeps giving meteorologically. And a low with an unusual track is on the horizon.
Today is somewhat of a break. Some sun, some clouds, a few light showers. Good enough to rake some leaves, as I will do soon.
Tonight it will get much more interesting...and Jim Forman from KING TV should be gassing up his van for a trip back north! (By the way, I have been encouraging KING TV to create a DVD with a collection of his weather segments--it would be a hot seller!) A low goes north of us (AGAIN!) produces conditions that will increase winds AGAIN over NW Washington (check out the latest WRF model forecasts). Winds will also increase along the coast, with both regions seeing sustained 30-40 mph with gusts above 50 mph. And of course rain will return.
But that is not the unusual item. Take a look at the sea level pressure forecast for the same time (graphic above). A moderately intense and small-scale low is approaching the southern portion of Washington and will cross SW Washington south of Seattle. There is an intense pressure gradient behind the low, which could produce strong coastal winds (see graphic below), and as the low moves eastward there may be a good eastward surge of westerly flow into the Strait of Juan de Fuca (see graphic). The central Puget Sound area won't see any real wind from this.
And as the low moves through and cool, westerly flow becomes established there will be a LOT of snow in the Cascades tonight through Sunday--at least a foot will fall. Thanksgiving skiing is in the bag now. If our forecasts are wrong and the low goes north of Seattle, the weather would be very different.
It appears that there will be a major pattern shift next week and our intense weather will be over for a while. We will even have a large scale ridge of high pressure in our neighborhood.