Saturday, November 14, 2009

Potentially Serious Olympic Flooding


As noted earlier, a pineapple express event is now setting up, with clouds overhead right now a sign of the incoming warm front that will bring rain starting tonight.

The latest series of forecast model output shows extraordinary heavy rains on the SW side of the Olympics. Take a look at the attached 24-forecast rainfall predictions from the UW WRF (4-km). Just amazing. The first period (ending 4 AM on Monday ) shows 2-5 inches, while the second period (ending 4 AM on Tuesday) indicates area of 10-20 inches! This amount of precip will flood not only the flood-prone Skokomish watershed, but others as well. The North Cascades also gets heavy rain, and the rivers draining from it are vulnerable as well. Green River should be ok for this one....but more is coming.

Warm temperatures will flood our region starting tomorrow. Take a look at the 850 mb (around 5000ft) temperatures on Monday morning at 1 AM--a plume of very warm air with strong SW flow will be pushing straight in. All the nice new snow we got? Its toast---in meteorological speak...it is going to be "consolidated."

And did I mention the winds? Hold on to your hat...particularly on Monday. Winds will reach 50kt+ on the coast and over NW Washington over water...and 20-30 kts with higher gusts elsewhere.

. A serious and threatening event.

13 comments:

Josh said...

Looks like some goods winds will mix down here in BLI. Nice rainshadow to

Must read blogs said...

so does that high wind warning mean anything for us in the sw interior?

Joseph Ratliff said...

IMHO, it seems the "wind" part of this event has been downplayed on the media, focusing on the rain (because of flooding).

But as this gets closer, the predictions keep leaning toward a full-on windstorm for inland WA...the coast already is forecasted to get a nice punch of wind.

Scott K said...

It'd be nice to have a GOOD wind storm. These hit and miss ones kind of get old, like 'crying wolf'. :)

We are on the fence between heavy and moderate rain here in lake stevens according to those images, but we'll see. Clouds are rolling in now. At least I'll be home the next two days to really have fun watching this storm system move in.

I'll be keeping a close eye on this one! Keep us updated please, Cliff!

Scott K said...

Snow reported in south Everett (near everett Mall) about 15 minutes ago.

cprimm said...

Thanks for the heads up. Sorry to see all our new snow get "consolidated."

dayn_1 said...

Boy shes a wet one.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/loop-vis.html

Richard said...

"Pineapple" just doesn't convey the magnitude. Looks more like a juicy jumbo Watermelon Express. :) They're all over the place for the rain shadow in Port Angeles, be interesting to see what we actually get.

zmb said...

Cliff,

How will this windstorm compared to the one last week?

Corie said...

I liked windstorms better before I moved to a part of Olympia where my power goes out easily and we're on a well...no power, no water! sigh..ok...will go fill up the tub, get out the candles and flashlights!

From what I'm reading and hearing, it would be fun to be in a safe viewpoint on the coast tomorrow and Monday!

Scherer Family said...

So much for watching the Leonid meteor show on Tuesday morning! It is supposed to be quite spectacular this year too, bummer. Wonder if I can find any clear sky somewhere in Washington Tuesday morning from 2-4am?

Kenna Wickman said...

Usually with these storms (and depending upon where you are in respect to the lee of the Olympics) you still have a good chance to see the Leonids. These storms have sort of a way of shredding the clouds sometimes here - and you can get fleeting clear patches that are suitable for astronomical observations.

During the big Leonid shower early this decade (I forget which year) Kitsap was soaked in relentless fog. I found a clear patch west of the bridge near Shine Quarry and watched it from there (aware of possible cougars in my midst) and had perfect views of 3-6 meteors in the sky at any one moment for about 20 minutes. There were several people watching closer to the bridge.

For the really dedicated, you will want to go east of the Cascades. I did this for the solar eclipse in 1979. Portland was soaked in. Several went to Stonehenge in Maryhill and were fogged in. I think the observatory in Goldendale was acceptable. We were on some hummocky hills south of the Dalles, in the rain shadow of Mt. Hood and had perfect viewing conditions. We could see the edge of the shadow towards Bend, and saw the rarely seen phenomenon of Moire lines (interference bands) all over everything. The eclipse was dynamic and magnificent. After totality, several people started shouting "Encore! Encore!"

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