Monday, November 22, 2010

This AM

Some snow flurries and light snow are falling in much of the area south of Everett. This is associated with an upper short disturbance that moved in from the north and which will be moving out this morning (see image)The radar shows show scattered light precipitation (snow). (see graphic). Some locations south of Lynnwood have gotten around 1/4-1 inch of snow, others very little. It seems like the worst of it is in a narrow band over north Seattle.



To show you how uneven this snow is, here are a few DOT cams:





Clearly, this was not a great success for the models--clearly more is getting farther north than forecast this morning. And the bigger snow threat--the one discussed by the NWS -- was always this afternoon. But I have to give credit to the National Weather Service, which did go for more snow in the face of many of the models doing otherwise, based on their experience with the models underplaying this situation. It is good that all the DOT pretreated last night...I drove to the airport and SDOT and WSDOT were out in force. This stuff will freeze solid tonight if not melted or removed.

The question right now...is there anything more serious in store this afternoon? I am trying to get the new model runs....too many people are hitting our system and there are problems...working on it...

46 comments:

Lindsey said...

It sure looks from the radar that there is "some" kind of convergence going on with right over the area, though I'm not qualified to say it's an actual convergence zone, I guess . . .

mig said...

Lightly snowing in Tacoma this morning, with 1/2" so far (mostly from yesterday, but it's starting to accumulate again).

MyronsWorld said...

Cliff,

I've got nearly an inch on my porch near Aloha/19th Ave E.

Erik

Michael DeMarco said...

Heavy fall of large flakes and 27 degrees in Sequim at 0800 and calm. First accumulation here north of town.

Michael said...

Lindsey, I think Cliff will agree that you are right. All precip is some form of convergence. These bands of snow that are moving in are no different.

Teresa said...

As I've said before, it's much more responsible to over-play the event than to underplay it.

When you underplay, people don't prepare. And the people who don't prepare lead to disaster. I'm glad Metro and the Dots know this.

And I've lived here far to long to believe weather predictions over my own lyin' eyes and physical sensation of changes in moisture and temperature....migraineurs actually FEEL the weather......nothing personal. Theoretical models are a great tool, but they are far, far, far, from perfect. They were wrong both yesterday and today.

I only wish some of the weather forecasters lived east.... Predicting for Seattle just doesn't give the larger picture at all, especially since so many people live in the outlying areas.

Bob said...

Piling up on the hill above Port Angeles; roads a mess here; 21 and calm; looks like about an inch/hour rate; we must be in a snow pocket.

mikeybob said...

It's snowing like mad in Haller Lake.

mackro said...

Got over an inch in Greenwood/Crown Hill, Seattle.. and it's not even 9am yet. The flakes are really large and chunky, yet they're sticking nonetheless.

Zobmie said...

Lightly snowing in Ballard at the moment (8:40am) with about 1/4-1/2" on the ground.

Michael said...

heavy snow here in Bryant/Viewridge

Laura M.- Editor said...

I think we have about two inches here in Maple Leaf and I just saw a car having trouble getting up our hill/street.

we had tiny flakes- then HUGE flakes, and now back to the tiny stuff.

Kenna Wickman said...

Falling pretty steadily here in Kingston. Check out these views:
http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/ferries/cameras/index.cfm?terminal_id=12

Shannon said...

Here are my 7.30am and 9am pictures from North Seattle. Easily an inch now.
http://echobaby.blogspot.com/2010/11/snow.html

Elaine said...

At 9am, 1" of snow on my back porch in E. Ballard - NW 63rd.

a progressive crank said...

Looks like I'm in for a bit more of this "dusting:" Current Seattle-Tacoma NEXRAD Radar Map : Weather Underground http://bit.ly/9X4QrU

If this afternoon is the real threat, this could be a reprise of Christmas 2008, with school closures right before a holiday.

Lea said...

Juanita area of Kirkland here--the light snow has now turned into a heavy, soft, thick snow. It's really beautiful.

TrickyCoolJ said...

Thank you for the proof that only my neighborhood is the bad one in North Seattle! I live just a few blocks down from 105th & Aurora and my coworkers think I'm nuts trudging in wearing snow boots, a ski jacket and stocking cap.

Scrantz said...

9:30 and still just rain in Portland, Oregon- please Cliff- keep including the Portland metro area in your comments/predictions- you have a huge FAN base here!! Thanks.

McLean said...

Snowing in Sammamish! It has become steady and were approaching an inch. 28 degrees out. I'm loving it!

Bill Reiswig said...

Steady snow in highpoint/west seattle. 1/2-3/4 inch so far.

Christina Wilsdon said...

about an inch of the fluffy white stuff piled up in the birdbath here at base of Phinney Hill--and birds that never usually sit on the birdfeeder to eat (because they're groundfeeders!) are clumsily perching like crazy on the feeders and devouring seed; never, ever saw that before--maybe they know how cold it's going to be!

Lindsey said...

And now a Winter Storm Warning: http://www.wunderground.com/US/WA/508.html#WIN

Chris Christensen said...

Winter Storm Warning for all of Western Washington now, calling for 6+ inches everywhere. I think this event should be called the Big Weather Flop of 2010. First the windstorm that caught us off guard and forecasters underplayed, now this snowstorm. Stay warm everybody! And STAY OFF THE ROADS IF YOU CAN'T DRIVE IN THE SNOW! Cliff, I do appreciate all you do and I understand how difficult it is to predict weather around here...

bridgid10 said...

Been snowing lightly since 5 am on Vashon, moderate at times. Near Vashon town we have about 2". Grats to DOT for sanding and treating our main hwy.!

Looking forward to the new models Cliff, appreciate your efforts!

dominique said...

And it has been snowing consistently in Olympia and accumulating. Portland(OR) has seen no snow but we are getting plenty of it.

JD said...

The precipitation banding we're seeing is likely due to deformation zones. These cause local regions of enhanced lift in bands usually. It is similar but not exactly like the type of convergence we're used to seeing in the lee of the Olympics. In the deformation case the low level convergence and lift is a response to the deformation instead of a result of it, such as in the Olympic lee case. However, the bands are likely enhanced by low level convergence due to the Fraser outflow... my guess anyways

Cas said...

There was a lot of snow coming down around 8:30 in Lake City as my bus went by. But it tapered off now to light snow in downtown Seattle that isn't accumulating. Wet and bare roads.

mb said...

Still snowing in Port Angeles at 10AM. Looks like 4" to 5" on the porch railing.

showhank said...

Very light snow in Bellingham now. Judging from the radar, we might see more...

Ferdi said...

It is starting to snow up here on Sinclair Island now. Dry powder snow. Wind from the north but very light - almost calm. These short waves sometime stall and intensify over us. Not sure if this one fits that pattern.

JenErik said...

It has been snowing all morning in Port Townsend - We have got an inch or 2 right now.

Skokomish said...

Snowing heavily in Gig Harbor, roads covered now.

Matt said...

We are waiting in suspense for an update to the forecast, which seems to have gone off of the rails???

C.J. said...

"Bottom line...NO ACCUMULATING SNOW in Seattle"
It's been snowing and accumulating for over three hours at my sea-level house in Seattle. This isn't exactly a "Black Swan" event, but these sort of blanket ALL-CAPS pronouncements indicate a conceit - an over-reliance on computer models. It reminds me a Wall Street quant funds that bet the whole company on fine-grained predictive models built by the smartest PhDs. It sounds like Dr. Mass should start doing a better job hedging his tail risk.

Christopher said...

Oops -- Mama nature is making a monkey of those who said no snow north of Seattle, including the NWS point forecast for our location on San Juan Island which even now says there is no chance of either rain or snow. Sorry, NWS, but it's snowing moderately heavily in the San Juans.

Not only did the NWS point forecast get it dead wrong for snow, but they also got it dead wrong for wind. Whereas it shows us suffering winds of 41 mph at this hour, in actuality it's virtually dead calm.

Big time wrong on snow, big time wrong on wind.

Oh well. If weather forecasting were simple, meteorologists wouldn't be paid the big bucks! [g]

Mark said...

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?location=USWA0210

Fascinating over the past hour. The winds shifted from out of the south to westerly and you could see the Olympic rain shadow open up in real time.

PAG said...

Much like yesterday here east of North Bend in the Middle Fork Snoqualmie Valley. Elevation 700'.

Light, continuous snow since I woke up at 6AM. Definitely accumulating. We have about 4 inches including yesterday and so far today. Bit of a slight breeze now and then, but mostly calm and around 30F.

My ducks are completely confused and the chickens are just sitting in their coop staring out. What the heck is that stuff?

Alex said...

This 28 here in Redmond Ridge. Brrrr.

Mark said...

Snowing lightly and sticking in Lake Stevens. Less than a half inch accumulation. I'm a new blogger and I must say that I appreciate Cliff Mass's blog very much as well as the comments from the reasonable readers.

joanne said...

we have heavy snow here in port townsend, still coming down hard with about 3-4 inches on the ground and 27degrees!

JewelyaZ said...

It's snowing hard in Eastgate (Bellevue) and by 9 am we had 1.5 cm of snow on the ground and roads in Phantom Lake. I think we're going to end up with more than an inch, and given how cold it is, I hope they call school off tomorrow.

This morning, I was shocked that they kept schools open; I guess they were embarrassed about the day they called school off and it didn't even snow, remember that!

There are safety issues with the snowy hills around here though, especially since traffic will melt the snow and tonight will refreeze it into solid ice...

Uridge said...

We are at 550' elevation on a ridge directly over the South Shore of Hood Canal. We are now up to 5 1/2" of snow--got maybe 1" sticking overnight then 4 1/2" more this am since about 7. Current temp has warmed up to 31. If the winds in the forecast for tonight come true, they could really blow this light, fluffy snow around!

Matt said...

From the radar, looks like much of the show might be over, precipitation is breaking up.

Alex said...

Why should schools be shut down because of a little snow? Midwesterners really laugh at us scaredy-cats.

John said...

so my larger question is how much this instability makes the rest of the weeks forecast unpredictable.

The 24 hour satellite animation shows a pretty impressive amount of energy to the cold that came in. Could this result in colder temperatures the following week than is currently forecast and would that infer a possibility of more snow?