Tuesday, January 11, 2011

10:30 PM Nowcast

Based on the reports you have provided, right now there is roughly 1-2 inches over much of the area, with substantially more over Kitsap and SE of the Olympics and less near the Cascade foothills. As shown by the radar, precipitation is still occurring over much of the region:
Well I hate to be a party pooper, but the warming is occurring aloft and the snow is fated to turn to rain. Here is the latest vertical sounding (10 PM) of temperature at Seattle. The temperature structure aloft is shown every hour (1206 is ten pm, time is in GMT)
The temperature has warmed up considerably above 800 meters (around 2500 ft). You notice that the temperature is nearly constant in the lowest portion of the atmosphere..that is not a coincidence...it is very close to 32F all the way down since the precipitation is melting as it falls.

Here are the winds in the lowest 400o meters of the atmosphere from ten pm yesterday to 10 PM today. Strong southwesterly flow is found aloft (50 kts!) and the SW flow is moving down. SW flow is warm and moist.


You get the picture...this pretty snow is not going to last...it will turn to wet snow and then rain over the next 2-6 hours over most of the lowlands, depending where you are.

The other interesting story are the winds. There is a huge pressure difference the Cascades and some locations on the east side of the Sound and in the foothills are getting 40-50 mph gusts--like North Bend, Snoqualmie Ridge, and some locations near Enumclaw.

69 comments:

HarrisonCZ7 said...

Close to 3.5 inches on Silverdale Ridge! Coming down hard! I think we'll get close to 5! One more NOWCAST! Woo Hoo!

sophiakristina said...

I so appreciate your attention to the weather! Thanks for all that you do.

Michael said...

2.1 " of snow here in Normandy park 128', 2 Miles SW of SEATAC.

Temp 30.5
DP 27.4
Wind gusting 15-20mph out of the ENE

Seems like a little more than I expected here. There is a police cruiser in the ditch on hwy509

Some Ice pellets have mixed in, or as most know them: sleet.

dabobman said...

Poulsbo, still snowing steady at 9:48pm. Total since 7:30 pm 2 1/2 inch.
Temp 31.5 F
Baro 29.89 falling
Wind SSE 2mph gusts to 6mph
Altitude: 270 feet

Michael DeMarco said...

Sequim. Wind blowing 25-30 mph with gusts to 40. Temp at 34 with only a scattering of driven flakes and graupel. 9:55PM

EscapingtheMild said...

Still snowing hard in North Tacoma. Three days of this would have been amazing! Hard to believe this will be a rainy mess by 6am, what a waste!

ruddiger said...

Snow has turned over to rain north of Hoquiam. 34.5 degees. Almost 2 inches on the ground.

Rafael del Castillo said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Barb said...

Port Angeles right now -- snowed steadily from about 7pm till maybe 10:50. Now it's more like graupel at 10pm. About two inches on the ground; wish we'd get more!

John S said...

I don't know the most accurate way to measure precipitation of the frozen variety (do I just stick a ruler through the snow built up on my deck?) but it appears to be about 2-3" of accumulation here in the Phinney Greenwood area at the top of the ridge. Wondering if my kids' school will be cancelled in the morning or if the temps will warm and wash it all away.

Damon said...

Still strong NE winds at Hoquiam (at 10pm)...which means snow for awhile more, I guess.

Sunke Schmidtko said...

close to 3 inch in NE Seattle Wedgwood.
Temp.: 32

Ross said...

Drove 15th Ave. NE between Shorline and Seattle at 9:00. About 1.5"-2" of accumulation. Between 175th and 125th saw three plows, one Shoreline plow coming off a minor arterial to hit 15th, WSDOT plowing 145th, and a SDOT plow on 15th. I suppose I should go walk the dogs and enjoy the snow while it is still here.

Dorothy Gist said...

More than 2.5 inches and still falling at 10:05 in NW Olympia - just 1/2 mile from the Sound.

mpop said...

2 inches in North Ballard. Nice steady snow.

Lara said...

South Tacoma - we have about 1.5 to 2 inches of accumulation and it is snowing again.

Steve said...

3.25 inches right at sea level on the water in Shelton and still with moderate snow.
Temp: 31.6
D.P. 29
Light NNE wind 4mph

dimension38 said...

3.5 inches in Mill Creek, still 29 degrees, and still snowing heavily. If it snows 2-6 more hours at this rate, we'll end up with quite a bit.

Ann said...

10:40pm Woodinville, 4 inches of snow and still coming down lightly.

cornbread said...

Just went to the 8:00 showing of True Grit here in Bellingham. no snow when we went in, came oot to 4".

Had to leave the car at the bottom of the south hill and walk up. Should have taken the 4x4 truck. Live and learn........

Still snowing hard.

sschommer said...

Duvall, 420' 3.5" and still snowing. May end up with 4-5"

cornbread said...

Just went to the 8:00 showing of True Grit here in Bellingham. No snow when I went in, 4" when we came out.

Had to leave the car at the bottom of the south hill and walk up.

Should have taken the 4x4 truck.

Live and learn.....

Still snowing hard.

Kenna Wickman said...

About 3" here in Kingston and still snowing.

Kevin said...

Guessing 5 inches in Bellingham, including the snow from last week. Winds picking up and temps around 30 degrees.

Looking very pretty outside, but I guess it won't be here in the morning - shame.

Aloha said...

It's 2245 in Lower Queen Anne, calm and steady snow fall of small light flakes. My deck rail has almost 1" (not quite) of accumalation.
It still seems cold out but could hear something dripping off the roof.
It would be nice to see the pretty snow in the morning but I won't count on it.

Jim said...

3 miles NNE of Monroe @ 380' - Snow falling moderately, wind blowing from east. During the bigger gusts it starts looking like a white out. Near as I can tell there's about 1.5" of snow. Temp got as low as 29 but is now 30. Hope I wake up in the morning to lots of snow on the ground, but I recognize that's highly unlikely.

Thanks for the blog... you do a great job!

Kevin said...

3.25 inches in 3 hours at the heart of Bainbridge Island as of 10:51 with temperature holding steady at 32.7F.

Small flakes and due to the glightly > freezing temp it's perfect snowball snow :)

Jim said...

3 miles NNE of Monroe @ 380' - Snow falling moderately, wind blowing from east. During the bigger gusts it starts looking like a white out. Near as I can tell there's about 1.5" of snow. Temp got as low as 29 but is now 30. Hope I wake up in the morning to lots of snow on the ground, but I recognize that's highly unlikely.

Thanks for the blog... you do a great job!

Guy said...

East Magnolia. Snow started at 8 PM and is now pretty much rain. 2" on cartop. 32 degrees, 70% humidity. Made a 5' snowman. Vive le nowcast!

Suzanne said...

About 2 to 2.5 inches of snow up the hill from Fremont in Seattle. still snowing steadily at 11:05pm.

Craig said...

11pm here in Portland and we are still @ 30* and steady freezing rain is still falling. If its not snow, its just not the same. Will be glad to see this gone tomorrow morning when I have to go to work in Vancouver.

tricia said...

Just measured 3.5 inches on the south end of Bainbridge Island at 11:06pm. Still coming down hard, no rain yet! Wish it would stick around!

Ryan said...

Bothell, 720ft elevation. Light snow, 2.75" of snow on the ground. 33.1F, no wind.

RGPratt said...

Steady snow in Marysville 29 deg. and 2+ inches of snow. Great for making snowballs.

Ryan said...

Bothell, 720ft elevation. Light snow, 33.1F, 2.75" of snow on the ground. No wind.

Darby said...

Love the Nowcasts!!!! Thank you for keeping us big weather fans informed!! About 3" here in Brier. Exciting, even if it will all be gone by morning.

JayNorth said...

Loving the "nowcasts" - we are at 4 inches of new snow in Bellingham. NWS says it stays snow here until 10 AM. Sounds different than what you are saying. Is that wrong or is it is Fraser outflow situation? Or what?

kermitizii said...

Only 2 inches so far in Van BC at 11:30 pm. They predicted 10-25 cm so we will see.

natchrl8r said...

Several inches of snow in Bellingham since 8pm. Woohoo! I just got back from an invigorating ski through the neighborhood. Winter Storm Warning in effect until 7pm, changing to rain by 10pm. Finally, we got the best end of the snow stick!

HarrisonCZ7 said...

We have 5" in Silverdale on the Ridge!! And still snowing HARD! 32F.

This is 2" more than the models ever showed!!

What a snow storm!

We weren't even in the Heavy Snow Warning but we've passed the 4" amount needed to verify a Heavy Snow Warning. Wow.

T said...

I love your blog. I am still hoping that before the winter is over, we have a snopocolypse.

Shoreline, about 2 inches and still coming down nicely.

Alex said...

3" here in Redmond Ridge. It's a blizzard out there!

Pen said...

About 2.5" 5 miles ESE of North Bend, 784'. Still coming down, wind still blowing, but not gusting as hard here. Temperature still around 29F.

Will said...

3inches in north Bellingham now and still snowing. I'd say .5 inches and hour

Geoff in Bellevue said...

King 5 showed Kyle Moore on Snoqualmie ridge at 11:00 and the wind was really blowing. The snow was horizontal.

dabobman said...

Poulsbo, midnight, total of 5 inches and still snowing. It's beautiful!

temp. 32.4
Baro 29.80 falling
wind SSE 2mph gusts to 8 mph.
Altitude 270 feet
Station info:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KWAPOULS11

JewelyaZ said...

We're up to 33F at 12:20 am and whatever you'd call it falling from the sky (sleet?), it is very wet. Bellevue weather 01/11/11

Whiskeypsit said...

Duvall, 372ft, 12:20am, still snowing, 6 inches, 33 degrees

Patrick said...

12:30 AM, Seattle, Wedgwood, snow still falling pretty fast. About 2-3 inches on the ground. Are the roads going to be clear by the morning commute? Hmm.

R said...

Edmonds, 360', 4.5" just stopped snowing

Jack said...

The sound of rain falling on top of the snow covering my skylight up here in Maple Leaf is fascinating.

Mindy said...

Hardly any snow in Ravensdale. Wind was howling most of the night. This morning finds everything encased in ice. Waiting for the warm up!

Kurt said...

We have about 6 inches here in Maple Falls, in the Mt. Baker foothills. Started to change to light rain now...sigh

Love the nowcast!

jk said...

Birch Bay: We left the house at about 7:00 - it was 34 degrees, 4.5" of snow, and still mixed precip coming down. It's melting fast where I work in the Cordata area of Bellingham. Roads are relatively good in both areas.

Shannon said...

We measured our Ravenna snow this morning and it is 2.6 inches deep with heavy icy rain failling.

SkunkBayWeather said...

Woke up at 2:00am and through one calibrated eyeball.... I measured 5.1 inches on the top of my deck rail :)... It was still snowing hard, so I'd say we got 5-6 inches here overnight (sea level Hansville). Absolutely calm all night with no winds. Temperature is 39 right now and the wind is just starting to pick up. We just had a 25 mph gust. We have accumulated .36 of precip so far today. Current conditions @ www.SkunkBayWeather.com

MarkM said...

Here in the Methow at 8am we've gotten 9 inches overnight. What I don't get is that it's snowing like mad but the radar images show that there's no precip. Precip shows in Seattle and Spokane but not here. What gives?

natchrl8r said...

Oops. In my last post I wrote pm's where I meant am's.

At 7am the snow was substantially gone in Bellingham with strong wind gusts and rain. Icy slushy roads and I live at the bottom of a hill so my commute will be delayed.

Jim said...

First big gusts hit the western shores of the Key Peninsula at about 4:00 am and its been gusty since then. The ~4 inches is now awful slush. Schools are closed here, too. 42 deg F. The rain gauge says 1.07 inches for last 24 hrs.

Urbancowgrrl said...

Just buy eyeing it from inside I'm guessing we may have actually gotten 3" in Ballard by about 3:30am (when I woke up briefly) although it may have just turned to rain about them because it was lightly raining.

I am sad that Snowpocalypse for today and tomorrow will not be happening ... possibly the only person I know over ten years old who feels that way.

Mike McFarland said...

For Mark in the Methow--you can find a coverage map, google for Spokane OTX 88d coverage blocking mountains or something like that. Here is one I see...
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hrl/papers/2000mou/Jay/Fig30.gif

The short answer is of course the mountains block the beams.

Pen said...

We ended up with about 6 inches here 5 miles ESE of North Bend. Wind was howling off and on during the night. Changed to rain at some point and the snow is sliding off our metal roof, but temp is still hovering around 30. Just the occasional breeze.

Temp last night was the same and we got snow, now it's rain. There's a lot about this weather stuff I just don't get, obviously :( Better read Cliff's book....got it for Christmas.....

Kids got a 2 hour delayed opening at school in Seattle. Better than nothing, like they said! They were so hoping for an epic storm....

Andrew Barker said...

Please do more of the NowCasts. I loved being informed on what was happening!

joanne said...

couple of inches in port townsend last night, gone this morning.

dimension38 said...

I woke at 4 am and measure almost exactly 6" here a couple miles North of Mill Creek. 7 hours later it's almost all gone with the temp having risen to 47 degrees!

dimension38 said...

Cliff:

What are the odds of getting a real snow event this winter? Say, a widesread 8-10 inches that lasts for at least a few days...

windlover said...

Out here in Eatonville we started out as light snow around 6:30 pm....changed to sleet by 9:00 pm.....just rain by 10:00 pm. The winds really picked up overnight gusting to 48 mph at around 4:00 am. It's been a blustery, wet day out here all day. Like "dimension38" said...hoping to get a widespread 8 - 10 inches event that sticks around for a few days! Maybe later this month or in February? I think our chances get pretty slim after that.....Oh well! We can always hope for next year! Nuetral years are supposed to be almost as bad as La Nina years aren't they?

Kristen said...

I am curious about Dimension38's question about snow as well. Can you explain this warming trend that is forecasted for the next week? Will it continue or should we get some more winter storms?

Joel said...

It's a bit late for a Nowcast, but I created a time-lapse video with annotated temperature of snow falling and then melting in University Park neighborhood (just north of UW):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7V8Kc7ExAPs