Saturday, May 11, 2013

Mother's Day Special Forecast

I have gotten a number of inquiries about the weather on Mother's Day, particularly since the general forecasts have been on the wet side.

I believe I can offer some good news for those of you with a little patience, tomorrow has real potential for a nice walk or barbecue (even if your mother is not around!) in many locations.

A front is approaching us now slowly, something evident on the latest image from Langley Hill coastal radar (see below).


Some showers have already hit the north coast of Washington and will slowly move down the coast later this afternoon.

The rain should begin in the interior later this evening/early Sunday and the front will be moving through before lunchtime Sunday.  Here is the 3-h precipitation ending at 2 PM Sunday from the UW WRF model;  you can see the rain has cleared most of the lowlands at this time.

And the forecast for the three hour precipitation ending 5 PM is even better, with the front thenover eastern Washington.
Showers will continue on the western slopes of the Cascades and Olympics, so low-elevation hikes will be on the soggy side.

Mother's Day is too important to leave to a single model...what do the local ensemble forecasts (which make use of many forecasts) say about the probability of precipitation for the three hours ending 5 PM?  Some low probabilities (less than 30%) over the lowlands, with very low chances in the north Sound area.   The lower eastern slopes of the Cascades don't look so bad either.

And before you head out with Mom, you might take a look at the latest radar loop (say at the National Weather website--  http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ATX&product=N0V&overlay=11101111&loop=yes  ) to make doubly sure.  

Nothing is worse than a soggy mother.


6 comments:

Unknown said...

Any comments on the apocalyptic revelation of
CO2 levels reaching 400 PPM?

Rod said...

Cliff,

Come on now. There is one thing way worse than a soggy mother: an angry wife.

Mort Drizzle said...

Cliff - I am surprised you point your readers to the inferior NWS radar when the UW's is so much better! (http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/radar.shtml) What gives?

Thanks!
Scott

Westside guy said...

The NWS radar loop unfortunately doesn't seem to work on portable devices, which makes it less useful for short term planning.

The UW loop Mort pointed to does work on portable devices!

Lori said...

Good job on the forecast, Cliff! Had a nice walk through downtown Seattle after a Mariner's Mother's Day win in perfect (to me) weather!

Dawn Miller said...

In Federal Way right now and we noticed a big blustery breeze coming back from lunch. Then we just had a BIG flash of lightning followed by a big loud crash of thunder. What's going on with the barometric pressure?