Saturday, September 27, 2014

Summer is NOT OVER

A number of the local media outlets were musing that summer is over now.

That clouds and rain are our destiny.

Don't believe it.

We will start with a perfect weekend.  Yes perfect, with sunny skies and temperatures getting into the lower 70s.  What could be better than that?

Weather will decline on Monday through Wednesday as a trough pushes through the region.  Good for work or school.  But a substantial ridge will develop mid-week and fine...if not warm...weather will end the week and extended into the weekend.  

Let's take a look at the upper level (500 hPa, about 18,000 ft) maps from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF).  For each panel the left side gives the average of an ensemble of many forecasts.   Averages of many forecasts tend to be more skillful than a single forecast.  The right panel is the forecast from their very high resolution single forecast.  The shading gives you a measure of uncertainty in each (green indicates more certain on the left panel).

For Wednesday at 4 PM the ridge is starting to build in the eastern Pacific.

Further development on Thursday at 4 PM.


By Friday at 4 PM, we are talking about a major ridge over the West Coast and the ensembles have some confidence in this solution!


Saturday at 4 PM:  BIG RIDGE!
Sunday at 4 PM.  More ridging.


The Climate Prediction Center extended (8-14 day) forecasts for October 4-10th is for warmer than normal and drier than normal over us.



We will see sun and temperatures into the 70s later in the week and next weekend.

 And what about the warm "blob" over the eastern Pacific that has contributed to above-normal temperatures over us?

As shown in the figure below, the blob is still there!  I like the blob.

One final thing, although our max temps have been knocked down a bit lately, we have been much warmer at night (perhaps with the help of the blob).  The figure below provides the proof.  Every day of the last two weeks has had a minimum above normal at Seattle-Tacoma Airport.
Our Friend








3 comments:

Colleen said...

Sounds like it was a lovely day elsewhere but north Whatcom County ~ not so much. Very foggy through mid-morning. Bland skies & clammy air followed. Finally saw the sun in late afternoon, but overall a pretty forgettable day, weather-wise.

Eric said...

The warmer nights are leaving my apples without the tasty sweetness they get when nights get cooler! They are huge, but not too flavorful this year .

Thecatguy93 said...

The blob rules!