Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Wind Update (8 AM)

I would like to show you the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service's most capable short term forecasting tool:  the High Resolution Rapid Refresh System (HRRR), which makes a new forecast EVERY HOUR using the latest observations.  I will present the gust forecasts every two or three hours for the forecasts initialized at 6 AM (the graphics are from the Seattle WINDWATCH system my department built for Seattle City Light).

10 AM: 30-40 mph gusts over most areas, but stronger over water and particularly the coast.

 1 PM:  near the peak over Puget Sound.  40-50 mph gusts in places, with 50-60 over water and over land near Shelton.  And near the coast.
 3 PM.   Winds have weakened dramatically over Puget Sound but strengthening over the Strait of Juan de Fuca.  We are getting famous STRAIT WESTERLY WIND SURGE.  Northern Whidbey sill be hit hard as will the coast.
 5 PM  Crazy strong winds in the Strait and along the coast.  Strong wind will spread into northern Puget Sound (it will be insane in Mukileto).  The kind of situation that destroyed the Ivar's Mukilteo Restaurant in 2002.   If you hurry, you might be able to get a reservation for dinner there tonight.

7 PM:  Still strong winds in the Strait. Event is over for the rest of Puget Sound

Let't take a look at the latest UW WRF high-resolution forecast (started at 4 AM) of sustained winds (not gusts) near the time of strongest winds (noon). Around 25 knots (approximately 28 mph) around Seattle.  Gusts would be 30-50 mph over land.

This event is the strongest one we had so far this year, but not in the range of the big named storms.  But surely tens of thousands of folks will lose power.  Keep away from trees as best you can (I am not biking along the wooded Burke Gilman trail this AM for example).  Some ferry runs will be cancelled, you can bet on that.  As of 8:30 AM there are no wind related power outages in Seattle.

Be ready to move quickly if you eat at this restaurant tonight (Ivar's Mukilteo Landing Restaurant)

22 comments:

TrickyCoolJ said...

Just shy of 5000 without power in Wesr Seattle. You spoke about 10 min too soon.

Sysiphus said...

Based on the fact that we are NOT in the rain shadow here in N Ballard, I suspect all is not going according to plan. If the strong westerly component to the storm were verifying, we would definitely be in a rain shadow. Seems like it is more SW or even SSW. Any thoughts on what this might mean in terms of the forecasted winds?

Thecatguy93 said...

Currently at Mission Ridge, 66mph sustained with 116mph gusts.

Ironworker1994 said...

78 mph gust on top of the tower crane at amazon block 19 7th and lenora

Joeleoleo Fishface said...

Did you see our beautiful rain shadow over Tacoma the other day when the cold air came in from the NW? No such luck with a Pineapple like this one.

MyBadCatsagain said...

Sorry if duplicate post. Barely any wind here all day in Port Townsend. Absolutely still right now. Is there a wind shadow as well as rain (barely any rain here today either - Rats!).

Cristina said...

I love it that a Union Local 86 Ironworker is able to report his/her wind meter reading from the top of a tower crane in downtown Seattle! Thank you Ironworker1994! Hope to see you report your view more often. Is the crane swaying a lot? I could not even imagine having the courage to be up there in these conditions.

John said...

According to marinetraffic.com, WSF Kennewick on the PT - Coupeville run is way off course near Marrowstone Island.

Steve Oulman said...

Cliff -

Here in Winthrop/Mazama, very little wind, heavy snow overnight and steady rain all day. Very curious given reports of extreme weather elsewhere. What gives?

Jim said...

For where we live (a couple miles north of North Head), this is the most valuable resource regarding immediate local winds off the Pacific. Wind speed gusts peaked at about 40 knots today.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46029


John Marshall said...

As far as WSF Kennewick goes, she's made several huge course diversions today because of the weather, including the one you saw that took him a third of the way down the east side of Marrowstone.

If you select the boat in Marinetraffic.com and look at past tracks, its pretty interesting today.

I also saw the ferry do that coming into West Seattle a while earlier.

Captains don't want all those waves hitting the beam as it freaks out the drivers when the boats roll heavily. Those who park in the front or back get the wild and wet rides on days like this, given most Captains like to take the waves on the bow or stern. More gentle boat motions that way.

By the way, while I've got the mike, I noticed a PSW near Sequim, Blue Ribbon Farms which is out on the bluffs along the Strait, facing west and open to the water, took a 105mph gust a while ago. With 50+mph steady winds. Huge gust component.

dooner said...

Lots of strong gusts blowing through the Port of Olympia since 4:15pm, the most wind we've received all day. Staying steady still. Looks like Mother Nature didn't get the memo that the Wind Advisory expires at 6:00pm!

Unknown said...

Hiked up Grouse Mountain today to document winds... 12km MM5-NAM 4000 ft.level forecast called for 55 knots SW at 10:00am diminishing to 50 knots at 13:00 (North Vancouver, BC)...
Began ascent at 8:00 am from 900 ft asl. Lots of rain up until 2200 ft, little wind....at about 2200 ft winds picked up profoundly...about 30 knots sustained. Reached base lodge around 10:00 am which is 3500 ft...winds around 35 knots sustained...

...Hiked up to around 3900 ft asl...winds sustained around 40 knots at 10 m level...gusts up to about 45 knots.

All in all not as wild as I was expecting...the winds also seemed to pick up a bit later than was forecasted...

allen hall said...

And once again the rain washes the snow from the passes and ski hills, Baker excluded maybe. Seriously doubting we'll build a snowpack any time soon below 7000 ft. Still hope to be wrong.

Unknown said...

Hiked up Grouse Mountain today to document winds... 12km MM5-NAM 4000 ft.level forecast called for 55 knots SW at 10:00am diminishing to 50 knots at 13:00 (North Vancouver, BC)...
Began ascent at 8:00 am from 900 ft asl. Lots of rain up until 2200 ft, little wind....at about 2200 ft winds picked up profoundly...about 30 knots sustained. Reached base lodge around 10:00 am which is 3500 ft...winds around 35 knots sustained...

...Hiked up to around 3900 ft asl...winds sustained around 40 knots at 10 m level...gusts up to about 45 knots.

All in all not as wild as I was expecting...the winds also seemed to pick up a bit later than was forecasted...

Richard said...

Port Angeles did not see its rain shadow today. The Elwha River gage (pending validation) set its 7th highest crest on record around 3 pm, and the highest since 2007. Maybe a dozen power pole situations in central Clallam County, some trees down. The wind is still gusting over 30 and stuff is still tipping over, it's gonna be a long night.

C&A said...

Frequent gusts 50+ mph on Whidbey Island. Pretty good show for us and it has been going for several hours. These surges down the Straight are just nasty.

Angela said...

9:15 pm. Power has been out in much of Kirkland and Woodinville (and I assume a lot more places) since around 2pm. No idea when it will come back on. Wind has died. Few large branches came down in my neighborhood of Juanita, unlike with the last (smaller!) storm. I'm not sure what caused this extensive outage in this area. Usually, we don't lose power for long.

Ironworker1994 said...

Thank you Cristina. Im a real weather lover. I went to cliffs lecture and book signing. It is truly amazing how the windspeed differs from street level to the top of these buuldings. They shut our work down when windspeed reaches a certain criteria.

Gary said...

From East Bay Ridge above Port of Olympia at 11:15pm:
By 4pm the Oly airport (KOLM) had accumulated 1.2" precip for previous 6 hours;
the most weather occurred around 3pm--gusts in the low 40's mph, 0.20" rain in 1 hour.

We lost power at 3:20pm, one of around a dozen outages in the Oly area; restored around 6pm.
Comcast internet wasn't restored until ~10:30pm, allowing me to make this post.

Normally KOLM weather station posts hourly conditions, sometimes more frequently; however, right now the most recent was at 4:54pm. Perhaps, like PSE and Comcast, KOLM took a bad hit from one of those 40+mph gusts.

Such wild diversity in all the above accounts (very "above" from Ironworker1994)--greatly enjoyed reading them!

Burke Long said...

As you clearly pointed out this was a strong but not historic windstorm in Puget Sound. But what happened in Spokane was a truly historic event. It would be fascinating if you could explain what occurred there.

Michael Snyder said...

Updated my Normandy Park Wind storm Rankings
52 MPH in Normandy Park with 10 min wind speed of 26 MPH

Ranks as the 4th strongest storm in the previous 4 years at this location.