tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post1013275524676836644..comments2024-03-18T22:50:29.792-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Cold WaveCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-39390073538019926892009-03-19T10:47:00.000-07:002009-03-19T10:47:00.000-07:00Cliff or Mainstreeter...that's the one, but do we ...Cliff or Mainstreeter...that's the one, but do we have an updated version that includes the last 6-7 weeks?Skokomishhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15196511955108177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-66236858586233953152009-03-19T03:26:00.000-07:002009-03-19T03:26:00.000-07:0032.5...yes, contiguous is a better term. The infor...32.5...yes, contiguous is a better term. The information is not published...so calculated by a student for me. ...cmCliff Mass Weather Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-65422590959432894012009-03-18T22:53:00.000-07:002009-03-18T22:53:00.000-07:00I again have some questions about the UW probabili...I again have some questions about the UW probabilistic forecast. It consistently way under predicts precip. For example, for the four days starting on friday (13th) night to tuesday night the expected precip was .41" and the 90% confidence upper limit was 3.55". We actually received 4.79" (we are in Chelan Co, just east of Stevens Pass). During the last stormy period in early March it similarly way under predicted precip. If precip were a normal distribution (I realize it's not) we are talking several standard deviations off here. That is, of course highly improbable. <BR/> I'll admit NWAC also underpredicted precip over these 4 days, but they were at least in the ballpark (3"). Is the model not geared for mountain forecasts?<BR/>BTW, what are time periods for "day" and "night" in the model?CChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04249207410731810954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-36843799401397709422009-03-18T22:28:00.000-07:002009-03-18T22:28:00.000-07:00Cliff: I knew that the part about our coastline ...Cliff:<BR/> I knew that the part about our coastline being the stormiest in the continental U.S. was wrong as soon as I heard it and made a bet with someone that NPR was wrong on that. I just wanted confirmation. <BR/> But it did start me thinking about how one would define "stormiest". It would seem that one could use storm intensity, frequency or duration or a combination of the three. But as someone interested in coastal weather I would like to know the citation for the paper that analyzes the lower 48 coastlines.<BR/>Thanks.John Franklinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16424249779395129712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-33352323734971897162009-03-18T22:03:00.000-07:002009-03-18T22:03:00.000-07:00That graph from last month isHEREThat graph from last month is<BR/><A HREF="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vgawnhRg_KY/SZMeHAWZA0I/AAAAAAAAAvY/nK3oFscR1Jk/s400/temp012190.gif" REL="nofollow">HERE</A>mainstreeterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06311958194036737432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-60510735546009435912009-03-18T21:20:00.001-07:002009-03-18T21:20:00.001-07:00Cliff,A ways back, you noted our relatively dry Ja...Cliff,<BR/><BR/>A ways back, you noted our relatively dry Jan/Feb against averages with a graph...can we see that graph again, updated with the recent precip? I'd like to know how close we are to catching up with normal precip after falling way behind.Skokomishhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15196511955108177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-81774189612737660362009-03-18T21:20:00.000-07:002009-03-18T21:20:00.000-07:00Cliff,A ways back, you noted our relatively dry Ja...Cliff,<BR/><BR/>A ways back, you noted our relatively dry Jan/Feb against averages with a graph...can we see that graph again, updated with the recent precip? I'd like to know how close we are to catching up with normal precip after falling way behind.Skokomishhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15196511955108177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-60605464529916816892009-03-18T15:07:00.000-07:002009-03-18T15:07:00.000-07:0032.5yep...contiguous is better. You seem mighty in...32.5<BR/>yep...contiguous is better. You seem mighty interested in this issue. Whats up? ..cmCliff Mass Weather Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-75125014647440357342009-03-18T14:27:00.000-07:002009-03-18T14:27:00.000-07:00Cliff,Then I think you mean the "contiguous" Unite...Cliff,<BR/>Then I think you mean the "contiguous" United States (rather than "continental") if you are excluding Alaska.John Franklinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16424249779395129712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-14442644374893496462009-03-18T14:09:00.000-07:002009-03-18T14:09:00.000-07:0032.5 east...not hawaii...but I bet Alaska coastal ...32.5 east...not hawaii...but I bet Alaska coastal zone would be way stormier!...cmCliff Mass Weather Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-89820283567723663122009-03-18T09:58:00.000-07:002009-03-18T09:58:00.000-07:00Cliff:Thanks for the clarification of the "stormie...Cliff:<BR/>Thanks for the clarification of the "stormiest coastline" statement. Can you provide a citation for that? And does the qualifier of "continental U.S." imply that there is a stormier coastline in Hawaii?<BR/>ThanksJohn Franklinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16424249779395129712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-89206054199792685362009-03-18T09:33:00.000-07:002009-03-18T09:33:00.000-07:0032.5 east, This is based on the work of one of...32.5 east,<BR/> This is based on the work of one of my student's who looked at the temporal variance of sea level pressure....cliff massCliff Mass Weather Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-87648637273821145862009-03-18T09:13:00.000-07:002009-03-18T09:13:00.000-07:00The Seattle P-I has archived some great photos fro...The Seattle P-I has archived some great photos from years past on their website, <BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.seattlepi.com/photos/popupV2.asp?SubID=4682&page=17>itle=The%201960s%20in%20Photos" REL="nofollow">Here is a photo of a funnel cloud near Seward Park</A>mainstreeterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06311958194036737432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-74314961529109624062009-03-18T08:08:00.000-07:002009-03-18T08:08:00.000-07:00Cliff: A piece on NPR yesterday on the earmark f...Cliff:<BR/> A piece on NPR yesterday on the earmark funds for the radar quoted you as saying:<BR/><I><BR/>"The Pacific Northwest has the stormiest coastline of the continental U.S."</I><BR/><BR/>I was wondering what that is based on and does it refer to frequency of storms. If the latter how is "storm" defined.<BR/>ThanksJohn Franklinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16424249779395129712noreply@blogger.com