tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post1642242209175573616..comments2024-03-28T10:16:44.231-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: El Nino ReturnsCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-67279459773553628022009-10-05T11:47:40.410-07:002009-10-05T11:47:40.410-07:00Hi, I was wondering if there's been an update ...Hi, I was wondering if there's been an update in winter weather predictions with the El Nino ENSO? <br /><br />I was thinking about buying a ski pass to hone the new skis but wouldn't do it if the prediction is for warm, wet weather. <br /><br />I've heard that ENSO could also bring warm dry weather? Thanks for posting links and your always informative blog.<br /><br />NickAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-70934873766730447202009-06-12T23:28:23.021-07:002009-06-12T23:28:23.021-07:00The NOAA CFS forecast (which updates daily as oppo...The NOAA CFS forecast (which updates daily as opposed to the IRI ensembles, which contain models that are up to a month out of date) has been showing a return to El Nino for over a month, and now it's actually turning into a strong El Nino prediction (http://tinyurl.com/n2crsm)<br />The CFS model led the pack in predicting last winter's La Nina, so on that very short track record, I would probably skip the season ski pass next year. <br /><br />Good questions in the comments about the last month's unusual dryness -- I too would like to know if any group was forecasting that, and what the physical drivers were. Not really a weather question, but not far from it.Andyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05688508224694693048noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-19101342418707476322009-06-12T19:52:22.066-07:002009-06-12T19:52:22.066-07:00britten_clark, not everyone is happy about this we...britten_clark, not everyone is happy about this weather. Just so you know.<br /><br />any particular reason the record stretches of days without precipitation are so much longer than the record stretches of days with precipitation, yet people say it rains here all the time? we're going on 25 straight days of no rain and I haven't even heard talk about how big of a deal it is, like the near-record rain stretch a few years back.Weather Is My Lifehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11959087601911808613noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-67288052112151370782009-06-12T18:52:01.314-07:002009-06-12T18:52:01.314-07:00Bill Nye was explaining the first cloud type nomin...Bill Nye was explaining the first cloud type nomination since 1951 on the Rachel Maddow show tonight. The cloud appreciation society.mainstreeterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06311958194036737432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-7058978778970204802009-06-12T16:42:48.127-07:002009-06-12T16:42:48.127-07:00I think the E Wa cherry crop is done for again thi...I think the E Wa cherry crop is done for again this year. They have been on the leading edge of thunderstorms and hail. Tonight, more are expected to roll in.mainstreeterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06311958194036737432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-71089882256429124902009-06-12T07:50:09.702-07:002009-06-12T07:50:09.702-07:00One thing is for sure: this is the year of the to...One thing is for sure: this is the year of the tomato. How often can that be said of the region?Picnicking in Dreamlandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02699941865912536834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-26499503342933932032009-06-12T07:02:54.237-07:002009-06-12T07:02:54.237-07:00Cliff,
Does anyone know why we are getting such a ...Cliff,<br />Does anyone know why we are getting such a great start of warm and dry weather to our year, most potential storms seem to miss the Puget Sound and we have mostly sunny days in late may and June like it is July and August. What is different this year that could be driving this current pattern. Even in May almost all of our rain seemed to come in one big storm. Everyone is happy about this weather, except for the meteorologists who may find it boring, but there must be something interesting to talk about.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16353964553677880149noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-30734271188799622992009-06-11T22:43:24.625-07:002009-06-11T22:43:24.625-07:00I would gladly take a '68-'69 redux.I would gladly take a '68-'69 redux.Bham_Guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12710715631280608125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-85499608556329469502009-06-11T17:47:03.273-07:002009-06-11T17:47:03.273-07:00There is a listing of the Oceanic Nino index here:...There is a listing of the Oceanic Nino index here:<br />http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml<br /><br />I see La Nina conditions in 1968 gave way to a moderate El Nino in 1969. And from the xmACIS data... <br />22" of snowfall for Sea Tac in December 1968, followed by 45" in January 1969 (while the ONI was +1).<br /><br />This gives me hope that someday a winter like '68-69 will repeat when we least expect it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-79354370892231011002009-06-11T11:28:03.415-07:002009-06-11T11:28:03.415-07:003 of the 4 regions show above average temps last y...3 of the 4 regions show above average temps last year in the summer, including region 3.4, followed by cooling in the fall and winter. Couldn't that happen again this year?Bham_Guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12710715631280608125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-55021835292245207542009-06-11T10:08:51.107-07:002009-06-11T10:08:51.107-07:00From a farmer's perspective, this spring has b...From a farmer's perspective, this spring has been very warm here in Western Washington. My vineyard is loving the heat. In my research (mainly around grape growing) El Nino years have been hotter and drier in the Summer and Fall, something I look forward too!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10123914378838638285noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-2115361862479354582009-06-11T08:43:51.328-07:002009-06-11T08:43:51.328-07:00JewwlyaZ
No...there isn't much correlation ...JewwlyaZ<br /> No...there isn't much correlation between El Nino and summer weather. <br />My vegetables are finally doing well, though...cliffCliff Mass Weather Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-6745808851885686832009-06-11T08:29:03.744-07:002009-06-11T08:29:03.744-07:00Cliff said Back on December 27th 2008
"Remem...Cliff said Back on December 27th 2008 <br />"Remember...this is a neutral year...neither El Nino nor La Nina...and the most severe snow and wind events..."<br /><br />Then in February.......and this is a La Nina year <br /><br />and now.....El Nino Returns. I wouldn't call it a year. Back in the days yes a "year". <br /><br />Maybe a "period" or something. It seems like this oscillation is oscillating pretty fast... <br /><br />Maybe we should call it something else. Like "La Nino"...Joshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08645629430659310315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-81067051936876605182009-06-10T10:43:54.876-07:002009-06-10T10:43:54.876-07:00Cliff: To what extent do you expect the current-bu...Cliff: To what extent do you expect the current-but-early cold-phase Pacific Decadal Oscillation to alter any El Nino that we may get? As I understand it, we don't entirely know whether PDO drives ENSO or vice versa. I suppose if NASA's GMAO model is correct it might not matter. Any thoughts?Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07753888590653927699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-52762566867230672192009-06-10T09:52:41.588-07:002009-06-10T09:52:41.588-07:00Cliff,
Does El Nino change anything for the summer...Cliff,<br />Does El Nino change anything for the summer? Vegetable gardeners want to know... it seems like we have already been warmer and drier than normal over the past month.<br />ThanksJewelyaZhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09434569437851248356noreply@blogger.com