tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post1982016571617970149..comments2024-03-18T22:50:29.792-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: The First Day of Summer: When Will It Be?Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-24493636990237972792010-06-11T08:09:46.053-07:002010-06-11T08:09:46.053-07:00Ok I am one of those "complainers" but I...Ok I am one of those "complainers" but I appreciate you keeping it real. When people say this isn't typically normal for May/June, I think Ok, so maybe it will be better tomorrow...next week...next month??? And it starts to make you crazy because you are anxiously hoping/wishing for something that just doesn't exist. Then I check historical data and sites like yours and realize, Nope, it is what it is. I'm new to Seattle and have lived in a few places throughout the US and I will say I have never experienced anything like this constant gray. It can really wreak havoc on your mental state after a while. But thanks for the reality check. Like John said it's out of our control and we need to accept it, not resist it. That's what I'm trying to work on but somedays (months) are more difficult than others.Mehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17634228626032377554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-68190724481208827272010-06-08T21:20:29.381-07:002010-06-08T21:20:29.381-07:00Thanks Cliff.
How much rain has fallen in the las...Thanks Cliff.<br /><br />How much rain has fallen in the last month or so?<br /><br />How does that compare to average?Bill Reiswighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10750634817564055072noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-24451156247028515482010-06-08T16:53:19.545-07:002010-06-08T16:53:19.545-07:00homer simpson said: " you can prove anything ...homer simpson said: " you can prove anything with statistics, 17% of the people know that."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-87489632344173578742010-06-08T09:43:37.999-07:002010-06-08T09:43:37.999-07:00Hal said "This curve seems quite ragged for a...Hal said "This curve seems quite ragged for a sixty year average."<br /><br />It's a 60 year average so each date is just an average of 60 days samples of a "binary" property (1=more than a trace or 0=less than a trace). That's not a huge number hence the variation in the average.<br /><br />To get a rough estimate of the variance you count on any particular date the number of days with rain so your maximum count is 60 and the probability is that count/60. So the "standard deviation" (for a "random" Poisson distributed data) would be about sqrt(60) = 7.7 or as a probablility 0.12. Each data point would be the "actual" value plus or minus 0.12.<br /><br />Statistics tells you that about 2/3rds of the results will fall in that one standard deviation band. 95% of the results will be within 2 standard deviations (i.e. plus or minus 0.24). That's on a value that goes from 0 to 1.<br /><br />You can see the averaged data is going to be noisy because you have so few samples on each date.Kevin Purcellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18157202870194603923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-12776360239432213392010-06-07T22:47:34.183-07:002010-06-07T22:47:34.183-07:00Yea Adam I agree, with everything but the "co...Yea Adam I agree, with everything but the "cold" part. All those in my opinion do count for something. Based on my experience, it has truly been nicer and much more comfortable than normal this spring, I guess it makes up for the very warm winter we had.Cetern1091https://www.blogger.com/profile/17929408946124475152noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-56818449864660743072010-06-07T21:16:21.522-07:002010-06-07T21:16:21.522-07:00I always tell people not from around here that Sum...I always tell people not from around here that Summer starts July 15th in Western WA and end September 15th....Brucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14272595777929745312noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-59916216993207433762010-06-07T21:08:24.824-07:002010-06-07T21:08:24.824-07:00Yes, there is a lot of talk about how cold this sp...Yes, there is a lot of talk about how cold this spring is, but isn't there some evidence to actually support that complaining this year? Top 10 coldest Mays in Seattle history, most consecutive days of dry-season rain, potentially the latest day to hit 75 degrees. Shouldn't that count for something?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16701118220069464489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-72263939687008859172010-06-07T20:31:30.985-07:002010-06-07T20:31:30.985-07:00The first day of summer will be June 21. It is th...The first day of summer will be June 21. It is the most common date for the first day of summer. This year it begins at 4:28 am PDT.Cetern1091https://www.blogger.com/profile/17929408946124475152noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-53198053773980146862010-06-07T19:15:40.162-07:002010-06-07T19:15:40.162-07:00yup, that's why we got married outdoors in the...yup, that's why we got married outdoors in the mountains 28 years ago this July 31. It rained for the 9th time in 60 years, of course. Made us feel special.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07375816900362250191noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-65246981984217039012010-06-07T14:09:58.268-07:002010-06-07T14:09:58.268-07:00Cliff you rock! I've been saying this for yea...Cliff you rock! I've been saying this for years to people and everyone keeps complaining. Everyone thinks I'm wrong and that rain in May and especially June in Seattle is an aberration -- and then they look at me like I'm so audacious to say Summer doesn't start till after 4th of July. I'm going to link to your blog forever now :)Garrett M. Wiedmeierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12287661915659213180noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-84813168387040135772010-06-07T09:21:26.574-07:002010-06-07T09:21:26.574-07:00It seems suspicious to dismiss the Iceland volcano...It seems suspicious to dismiss the Iceland volcano as having no impact on this year's weather. In each of the major northern hemisphere volcanic events in my experience, scientists like Cliff have admitted that they had a dramatic effect on world weather for over a year after the event. Looking at the size of the cloud from the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in the month after eruption, it seems highly unlikely it did not have an effect on our weather in the month following.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-20392154025487163422010-06-07T06:19:51.424-07:002010-06-07T06:19:51.424-07:00I'm a little suspicious. Why would one day in...I'm a little suspicious. Why would one day in March over a sixty year period have a 40% chance of rain and a few days later a 70% chance? This curve seems quite ragged for a sixty year average.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10618044020965766974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-51665591055504175882010-06-07T01:13:41.485-07:002010-06-07T01:13:41.485-07:00My July 11th birthday is MY official start of summ...My July 11th birthday is MY official start of summer... easier to remember that way LOL<br /><br />Still, I am ready to put some tomato plants in the ground...JewelyaZhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09434569437851248356noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-11578196681558774482010-06-06T21:23:24.700-07:002010-06-06T21:23:24.700-07:00I'm never really a fan of people complaining, ...I'm never really a fan of people complaining, but it's funny watching people complain about this lovely weather and not being able to do anything about it. Keep bringing it on!John Schiznikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11929769566241834185noreply@blogger.com