tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post2169039529434319601..comments2024-03-29T08:29:55.105-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Will Low-Income Folks Be Hit Harder By Global Warming in the Pacific Northwest?Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger46125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-20895855287373318392016-11-06T11:12:57.895-08:002016-11-06T11:12:57.895-08:00Old thread, but caught my eye- overall great to se...Old thread, but caught my eye- overall great to see a hard look at how impacts will be distributed- but as others have noted, the initial assessment on who lives in floodplain areas is an assumption that doesn't stand up well. Floodplain managers both sides of the mountains(yes, even in King County) often find themselves having to try to move wrecking yards and trailer parks, because those are the land uses that historically ended up in the floodplain- while nicer neighborhoods were on higher ground. In many areas the neighborhoods most at risk from flooding are not the scenic riverside properties- but rather the dense neighborhoods behind aging levee systems whose only view is of a tall dike- again, often not the high end real estate in town. Now the historic wisdom of those that could afford it to put homes on dry ground has certainly changed with our love of ex-urban mcmansions with views, sold to those from outside an area who have never seen their river flood- but flooding is one area that a good look at the data would likely show would disproportionately affect lower income folks (sounds like a great phd project for an aspiring geographer, as there is lots of good data available to be compiled..!). And as anyone who has had anything to do with trying to get a flood-prone trailer park out of harms way can attest, it is a heart-wrenching process, given how hard it is for lesser income folks to find equivalent housing in our booming communities .Alexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13487577482997382945noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-57236844295432636442016-09-28T07:35:12.123-07:002016-09-28T07:35:12.123-07:00Forgive me for not knowing all the policy details,...Forgive me for not knowing all the policy details, but I don't believe this statement: "Slope failures clearly effect richer folks more." Rich people are not going to live in areas prone to landslides without good insurance policies. With the first sign of trouble they will relocate. The federal government will be much more likely to bail them out from a catastrophic loss. In short, when rich people can incur tremendous losses without actually feeling any pain. The pain they might have felt is transferred to the less fortunate. If Seattle ends up a winner in the climate lottery, more rich people will move here and kick the poor people out. You are choosing to ignore the wider picture.Doughttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12250211374330416889noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-15056966724290120452016-08-31T13:19:38.066-07:002016-08-31T13:19:38.066-07:00Great article. I support i732. Very articulate po...Great article. I support i732. Very articulate points based on data and logic. I recently listened to presentations made to the Seattle Times editorial board on TV the other day. Yoram Bauman answered every question about I732 with facts and data and made compelling logic based arguments. The climate justice representative didn't make a strong case in my opinion. They wanted to postpone taking action and kept making references to needing buy in from communities of color. They want us to wait for the perfect bill/initiative to arrive while stating there is climate urgency. KWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06688675579421186086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-6052325228847659782016-08-31T13:10:55.133-07:002016-08-31T13:10:55.133-07:00Amanda...that is why low-income working folks get ...Amanda...that is why low-income working folks get a tax credit to ensure they are not penalized. And, low-income folks spend a greater proportion of their income on sales tax, thus the drop of sales tax is very positive for them. This is really a very wise and clever package. I hope you support it...cliffCliff Mass Weather Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-3099433838485255692016-08-31T12:41:22.585-07:002016-08-31T12:41:22.585-07:00Wait, if poor people drive more (I'm skeptical...Wait, if poor people drive more (I'm skeptical that's true, but let's pretend Cliff is right), then they'll be paying MORE carbon tax than rich people. How is that not just as much of a regressive tax as the sales tax? <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Amandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06047601747568528613noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-80822679530412843582016-08-30T22:43:11.646-07:002016-08-30T22:43:11.646-07:00Alex..... I think you are getting a bit over excit...Alex..... I think you are getting a bit over excited there. No one is expressing any "hate", only pointing out the fairly typical low risk variables that comes with wealth, while lack of it increases risk.<br /><br />Of course a little social engineering could fix that. How about a nice fat Obama "climate -care" plan for the end of the century? Thats how it should go ya know. A little Carbon tax now to soften the fat cats up, then hose them good when you finally smarten up and elect Bernie Sanders next time around!<br />Bruce Kayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11070247298371179095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-35866815526326975252016-08-30T16:04:15.311-07:002016-08-30T16:04:15.311-07:00As I understand this, I-732 offers one absolutely ...As I understand this, I-732 offers one absolutely factual benefit for those with lower incomes: It reduces the impact of a regressive sales tax system.<br /><br />It should be pretty easy to calculate expected increases in energy costs and compare to expected decreases in the sales tax. That won't stop people from yelling about it, but at least it will make it clear that they're more signal than noise.<br /><br />Big picture, I'm mystified at the apparently iron-clad belief in some quarters that shooting down I-732 will clear the way for a "better deal" for the underprivileged. Here's what a defeat will actually clear the way for: nothing. There's no politically viable path to the alternatives proposed from the left and no realistic prospects that will change.<br /><br />This all-or-nothing gambit is completely and utterly divorced from political reality - something akin to holding one's breath in order to get one's way. It's going to be weird watching so many people turn blue.Foohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03929520923930532337noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-64296341504936699212016-08-30T12:21:11.041-07:002016-08-30T12:21:11.041-07:00Wow, the sheer amount of doomer hand-wringing is b...Wow, the sheer amount of doomer hand-wringing is breath-taking in this thread. Also when did it become fashionable to hate on people of means? I see that our society in 2016 celebrates dehumanizing rhetoric aimed at non-poor people.<br /><br />Also there is no evidence that any particular flood, hurricane, tornado or heat-wave is AGW-related. None whatsoever. Pure bunk.Alexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11205752419540502278noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-49073456150056177422016-08-30T10:20:23.128-07:002016-08-30T10:20:23.128-07:00Meteorology has some of the worst ill-conditioned ...Meteorology has some of the worst ill-conditioned differential equations of any discipline. Economics initial conditions are almost as bad, and the equations themselves are ill-defined and aggressively nonlinear. Making economic predictions for the effects of global warming is therefore fraught with difficulty, and there's no way anybody believes anybody else's predictions. I think Cliff's point was that accepting "GW will hit the poor worst" is not based on evidence, but I'm sure his arguments will convince nobody, and I don't know if they're realistic or not--we'll find out in 20 years. There are only two reliable economic laws that I know of: (1) Them what has, gets; (2) Ain't no free lunch. (Milton Friedman, not Twain.) Rich people may be more affected, but if they're rich enough they'll compensate.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14376428077115404207noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-20946615300353781172016-08-30T10:15:46.329-07:002016-08-30T10:15:46.329-07:00When the wealthy lose property to climate change, ...When the wealthy lose property to climate change, it will be tax write-off. When middle and lower income families lose property they will continue to pay the mortgage on an empty lot.<br /><br />A couple years ago, the Midwest had a severe drought. The corn crop failed, cattle herds were thinned and food prices spiked especially cereals, milk and meat. At the same time, most Republican politicians were working extra hard to reduce or eliminate SNAP and called climate change a hoax.<br /><br />Is climate change real? There are two hurricanes approaching the Big Island of Hawaii from the east (Madeline and Lester). El Nino and the Blob were both declared dead yet the waters east of Hawaii remain warm.<br /><br />Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751991294132134335noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-40193323334542109632016-08-30T10:00:26.529-07:002016-08-30T10:00:26.529-07:00Your analysis comes off as exceedingly cherry-pick...Your analysis comes off as exceedingly cherry-picked.<br /><br />Do you realize that if Bill Gates loses one of his many vacation mansions, insurance will cover it and he has other places to travel in the meantime? That's very different from the lady working at Taco Bell don't you agree?<br /><br />You assume that everybody living in the woods or in areas of fire danger is rich. This is just daft.<br /><br />What do you suppose will happen to food prices when farms around the world grapple with climate change?Travellerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14332405883455355515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-88758133236342276542016-08-30T09:21:23.945-07:002016-08-30T09:21:23.945-07:00Your "facts" are Zillow housing estimate...Your "facts" are Zillow housing estimates which only account for homeowners. You're pitting the Rich against the Slightly Less Rich homeowners that live further inland. There are MORE lower income people in apartments (100s per building) on slopes, shorelines, and riparian zones than there are rich people (5 per building). <br /><br />Also, I was just remembered that warming temperatures would increase photochemical smog. Not great for those inner city children and those living around SeaTac. <br /><br /><br />Amandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06047601747568528613noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-13903440277794932812016-08-30T09:02:33.989-07:002016-08-30T09:02:33.989-07:00Cliff, my points are just examples of ways to expa...Cliff, my points are just examples of ways to expand the discussion. You are measuring impact in a different way than some others here. If, as others have suggested, impact is measured in terms of capacity for remediation of circumstances, then facts indicate that those with less resources will be more affected than those with the money to rebuild, move, and/or pay for whatever will help them cope. As you've noted, already rich Californians are buying up a lot of farmland in this state. Among the resources of the rich, we must include a disproportionately favorable tax structure and use of communal tax and insurance funds to protect their assets (eg to stabilize the slopes where bluff-top houses are built). <br /><br />I am not in the anti-I 732 camp. But there's a lot more to impact than who loses a waterfront or bluff-top home or how liveable it is to be homeless. Rebecca Timsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11893945762947495364noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-74472405723539547042016-08-30T08:15:28.839-07:002016-08-30T08:15:28.839-07:00Bravo Cliff. I am in 100% agreement with your ana...Bravo Cliff. I am in 100% agreement with your analysis. Yes, I am a low income full time vegtable Farmer on the Olympic Peninsula. Dry hot summers, add substantially to my income, growing sweet warm weather crops people buy. <br /><br />I think all the naysayers, should only eat radishes, since they don't like warm weather crops. Lol<br /><br />For those of us that have spent our entire lives living in northern tier states. I can not imagine anyone, not wanting to able to ripen a good Tomatoe before fall!<br /><br />From a low income Farmer's perspective. Cliff is right on with his analysis.<br /><br />Remember... Extinction events create opportunities too. Without one, mammals would have never had a leg up in the evolutionary race. Yes?<br /><br />So..Learn to like calamari we will have plentiful squid in our seas.<br /><br /><br />Organic Farmerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08694548750704036717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-556677127505522392016-08-30T04:37:33.926-07:002016-08-30T04:37:33.926-07:00Rebecca Timson,
Of course, some low-income ...Rebecca Timson,<br /> Of course, some low-income folks will be affected but my point is that there is no reason to believe that they are MORE affected than wealthier people. Most of your arguments are not strong. Slope failures clearly effect richer folks more. Richer folks lives on shorelines. One can demonstrate this with facts. Warmer weather is better for homeless folks. Wood smoke for heating is a bigger threat to low-income folks than the occasional wildfire (whose smoke spreads widely). The bottom line is that the arguments by those opposing I 732 are quite weak...cliffCliff Mass Weather Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-26829250486450188322016-08-29T23:42:35.410-07:002016-08-29T23:42:35.410-07:00Andrew,
You are wrong. Below is a link to NASA s...Andrew,<br /><br />You are wrong. Below is a link to NASA statistics which clearly show warming over the last 20 years: http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/ Pay close attention to the rolling 5 year average as it smooths the climate signal.<br /><br />Also, El Nino and the solar cycle comes and goes, and yes, next year could be cooler- but the trend is clear. All these effects are studied in physics based models based on physical laws and carefully evaluated data. For example, you could take two parcels of air with different levels of CO2- and if you had the right instruments you could measure the differences in heat retention due to the Greenhouse effect. Some prominent variables which add complexity are the continents, oceans and ice. Even these can be modeled, albeit they do add some uncertainty and we don't fully understand all the feedback loops. <br /><br />In conclusion, you could find all of this information on the internet and save Cliff the trouble of responding to your garbage.Nerka2https://www.blogger.com/profile/17464746800348428442noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-19837702059992540082016-08-29T23:17:06.192-07:002016-08-29T23:17:06.192-07:00This is not an effective argument in support of I-...This is not an effective argument in support of I-732. The flaws in this argument speak to the need for better communication and collaboration among climate scientists, economists, structural engineers, agricultural and urban planners, medical researchers and practitioners, etc.<br /><br />About flooding: Thousands of low-income Washington families live in flood-prone bottom land, even on the west side of the Cascades, and often in housing ill-prepared to withstand flood damage (eg housing without secure foundations). Flood insurance is prohibitively expensive for some people, and it's going up in areas with increased risk. And flood costs aren't all about housing. For example: Roads may be impassable, which disproportionately affects those who have to travel long distances to work. <br /><br />About slope failures: This doesn't just affect pricey view property. It affects those who live below such slopes, and it affects infrastructure including roads and power lines etc. <br /><br />About wildfires: Remember those low-income people who will supposedly benefit from working in the new vinyards? Many live where wildfires have raged in recent years, areas which will be at higher risk in the future even with better forest management (since the increase in wildfires is certainly not restricted to forest land). So do low-income people in towns like Peshastin, Ephrata, Orondo, Cle Elum etc--certainly not the exclusive havens of those living in "forest mansions", though there are some of those in the mix. And don't overlook the health impacts of smoke inhalation, quite a serious concern in some areas of eastern Washington during the past four years. We are still a long way from providing equal access for all to health care,so hospital admissions may not be an accurate source of data. Some of the most vulnerable communities don't even have hospitals. <br /><br />As for data on heat-related illnesses, let's not just count the dead. Let's think about the disproportionate impact on people who don't have AC when it's 110 degrees in Wenatchee, and people who have to work outdoors (in the vinyards!) in that kind of heat. Think about days of work (and school) lost due to wildlife- and heat-related health problems. Surely this has a disproportionate impact on low-income families.<br /><br />As noted by others, there are other (actual and potential) impacts which would disproportionately affect those with less disposable income and less mobility. It makes little sense to restrict the focus to topics like who owns waterfront property. <br /><br />Rebecca Timsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11893945762947495364noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-10914772396356011202016-08-29T23:05:14.601-07:002016-08-29T23:05:14.601-07:00Andrew..... the question is not what has happened ...Andrew..... the question is not what has happened during the last decade or so, but what will happen during the next century. Temperatures can stagnate for a decade or two due to natural variability, but human forcing will dominate over time. Much stronger impacts than variations in solar output...cliffCliff Mass Weather Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-17533706711902323192016-08-29T16:53:44.480-07:002016-08-29T16:53:44.480-07:00Is it not important that the average global temper...Is it not important that the average global temperature has not actually increased at all looking just at the past twenty years of data? Why is that so Cliff?? What will the average temperature look like next year without any el nino influence to bolster global temps? What impact will the extremely weak solar cycle 24 have on the overall global temperature??Qwertyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00429690391444840673noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-68744530575365144062016-08-29T16:21:34.446-07:002016-08-29T16:21:34.446-07:00Reducing regressive taxation is always a good thin...Reducing regressive taxation is always a good thing, and I-732 accomplishes that while at least making some difference in the economics of pollution. Ethically, those who pollute more should pay more for mitigation.<br /><br />Just as obviously many, many steps like this will be required. But they have to be tackled one at a time. <br /><br />This is a good step.<br /><br />John Marshallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08271037292493818827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-17117411831695839882016-08-29T13:54:55.387-07:002016-08-29T13:54:55.387-07:00I agree with Steve: Won't the greater pain for...I agree with Steve: Won't the greater pain for the poor come from the policies themselves and not any warming? And that climate activists are pitching to have the increased cost of energy offset for the poor with proceeds from any new carbon tax?<br /><br />The theory of a carbon tax is great but in practice you are trusting politicians to not glom on to those funds for their own purposes. The record in NY indicates that should be a concern for you. Twice so far the Reginal Greenhouse Gas Initiatives funds which were supposed to be dedicated to carbon mitigation programs has been raided for general programs and the extraordinarily high administrative costs suggest that once bureaucrats get near the money you should worry.<br /><br />The bigger concern for the poor should be the impact of rising energy prices. You put in a carbon tax and assume that the cost of mitigated carbon energy will be cheaper than your existing energy. Be aware that the cost of renewable energy has impacted the poor in Europe negatively. For example in August 2015, the Cologne Institute for Economic Research released a paper “estimating that the energy transition costs consumers €28 billion annually, or €270 for the average household per year”. (Lang, M. and A. Lang. August 25, 2015. “IW/Handelsblatt: Energy Transition Costs EUR 28 Billion per Year—Shutdown of 57 Power Plants.” Germany Energy Blog. http://www.germanenergyblog.de/?p=19319 Accessed 8.26.2015 referenced in http://pecpa.org/wp-content/uploads/The-German-Energiewende_Informing-PA-Clean-Energy-Policy-1.pdf) Are you sure that the money allocated for the poor will offset those kinds of costs? What about those just above the “poor” threshold? The bigger concern for the poor should be that this will be a regressive tax on them.<br /><br /><br />Finally, just how much of a change to the global warming impacts do you expect from the program? I doubt that it is enough to make a measurable difference in any impacts. Kind of hard to get a return on that investment.<br />CNY Rogerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07128748617520028340noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-23746369457447011092016-08-29T13:20:40.768-07:002016-08-29T13:20:40.768-07:00"There have been many news reports about peop..."There have been many news reports about people from S. California moving north already, which the quickly rising housing prices in Bellingham (my hometown) reflect. Speaking more personally, I have met several people who moved recently to Bellingham who said the drought in California was a factor."<br /><br />People who have to work for a living are moving from California because of one primary and overriding concern - cost of living and/or taxes. The opinion surveys from moving companies based in CA are quite clear on this factor, other relevant ones such as drought and congestion also being mentioned. While it's true that OR and WA are no picnic when it comes to overall CA rates, WA is still miles ahead of CA because homeowners cash in on their equity and buy huge homes with the proceeds.<br /><br />BTW, the number one state that CA expats are fleeing to to is...Texas. Drought is not a concern for the hundreds of thousands of people who have moved there from all across the country, but jobs are. As always in these instances, follow the money. Eric Blairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09376653214948517679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-21526815757639425352016-08-29T09:12:38.214-07:002016-08-29T09:12:38.214-07:00Much of the comments here show that framing the pr...Much of the comments here show that framing the problem of AGW as a "Washington Problem" is highly erroneous. If Washington is getting climate migrants now, just imagine how we will be screaming for Donald Trump walls down the road, when boatloads of Middle East migrants start showing up on the west coast. The climate migrants who show up now are representative of the wealthy, demonstrating their capability for mobility when they chose, well resourced and financed. A much better indication of what is coming down the pipe is what happened the past year in Europe. There, those who were much more poorly resourced, mobile and capable, eventually fled under duress only at the point of a gun. They are the poor that will eventually be knocking on the door of Washington State.<br /><br />Washington, like BC or any other fat cat society is entirely delusional if we think that because we are the the best resourced and least likely to experience direct impacts from climate change, we can rest on our laurels..... unless of course, we are morally comfortable with building Trump Walls. We know that some of us are, the real question we are avoiding is - underneath all our veneer of concern, perhaps we all are ? It will be interesting ( and entirely predictable) to see the reaction of todays well off climate migrants when that happens! <br /><br /> A carbon tax is not the cure, but it is at least effective in steering the boat in the right direction on numerous levels, not the least of which is institutionalizing a mindset that fully accepts the scientific facts, something that to date is woefully lacking. As well, the risks associated are incredibly low. If Washington cannot accept such low risk for such a demonstrable benefit ( look to BC for empirical evidence) then you really have to wonder about the priorities of such an allegedly enlightened and progressive society.Bruce Kayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11070247298371179095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-56765824410723763792016-08-29T06:59:28.340-07:002016-08-29T06:59:28.340-07:00Steve, if you were paying attention you'd know...Steve, if you were paying attention you'd know it is already true that people from the southern states are moving to the Pacific NW because of climate change. There have been many news reports about people from S. California moving north already, which the quickly rising housing prices in Bellingham (my hometown) reflect. Speaking more personally, I have met several people who moved recently to Bellingham who said the drought in California was a factor. One family came here for their kid's soccer tournament and couldn't believe our kids play on real grass - in San Diego they play games on artificial turf and practice on dirt (used to be grass). They spoke of about a dozen other ways the lack of water has decreased their standard of living. They decided to move here. I also have a family member who had a small horse farm in Texas who recently moved to Oregon because the long term drought in Texas made their farm untenable. It's already happening, and if the SW droughts continue, it will only intensify. John Bowerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17084248400776650965noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-55882277270844467662016-08-28T21:56:34.658-07:002016-08-28T21:56:34.658-07:00We are dying from overthinking. We are slowly kill...We are dying from overthinking. We are slowly killing ourselves by thinking about everything. Think. Think. Think. You can never trust the human mind anyway. It's a death trap.<br />-Anthony Hopkins<br /><br />My opinion.. everyone will be 'equally' effected by climate change. Those who adapt quickest will do best. 'Low income' welfare types will do whatever the governmental says to continue to collect. Working class will find work cleaning up the mess. Rich will continue to find oportunities to make $$. Politicians will write all sorts of laws and taxes that will do nothing but confuse the actual problems.. and stay super rich. <br /><br />Chris Machttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12385544614041904457noreply@blogger.com