tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post2403099329391616633..comments2024-03-28T23:07:35.632-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Drought in 2016 for Washington State?Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-38571457003113960022015-10-01T14:46:25.820-07:002015-10-01T14:46:25.820-07:00sfsadff, I agree with you. Cliff, you would be be...sfsadff, I agree with you. Cliff, you would be better off comparing the forecasts from last winter with the corresponding forecasts for this winter. Show the SSTs from this time last year, and compare with the SSTs right now. Don't compare the forecast for this winter with what verified last winter. The variability in forecasts frequently doesn't match reality.<br /><br />Essentially, you're giving us a lot of apples and oranges. While I'm certainly not going to be making any predictions for this winter, I think you're doing all of us a disservice with these faulty comparisons...AnotherGuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04742479230625476510noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-17369594932990279792015-09-30T08:52:43.513-07:002015-09-30T08:52:43.513-07:00Encouraging report. Thank you. As a side note, i...Encouraging report. Thank you. As a side note, it was a great year for Western WA grape growers.Coug66https://www.blogger.com/profile/04880649405645329075noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-22004146155798149322015-09-29T22:40:00.536-07:002015-09-29T22:40:00.536-07:00Thanks for the logic and reason here. All too for...Thanks for the logic and reason here. All too forgotten in the media Pete Spearhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17653783893125741163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-16841101380261680752015-09-28T21:02:01.724-07:002015-09-28T21:02:01.724-07:001982/83 el nino was wet from Washington state all ...1982/83 el nino was wet from Washington state all the way to San Diego California. I hope the warm pdo phase doesn't completely go away. Cold pdo means more La Ninas and droughts for california. If the warm blob turns into a horseshoe shape and not be at record levels i would think it would be better at keeping the evil ridge at bay. Shawn brunelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12807423381785424186noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-38115925654829815302015-09-27T12:04:15.793-07:002015-09-27T12:04:15.793-07:00Cliff,
Spot on!
But if I am not mistaken, I recal...Cliff,<br />Spot on! <br />But if I am not mistaken, I recall that the State Climatologist himself made a really dire prediction for continued drought- I heard him on KUOW. Is he not in close contact with you and your Department at UW?<br />Abe JacobsonAbe Jacobsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00332896461501944728noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-72355553987796341312015-09-26T17:31:34.282-07:002015-09-26T17:31:34.282-07:00Drought? What drought? I recorded 40.3 inches of r...Drought? What drought? I recorded 40.3 inches of rain since Oct 1, 2014. About normal for west Vashon. <br /><br />The excessive heat in the forest dried out the sword ferns, red elderberry, bracken fern and salmon berry. The moss on the trees is more brown than most summers. There are more dead fir saplings then usual. Some of the medium sized Firs lost up to a third of their needles but most appear okay. The evergreen huckleberry, big leaf maple and salal appear normal. The Alder and Indian Plum normally drop leaves in the late summer to conserve water. <br /><br />There were far fewer mosquitoes than normal thanks to the dry May and June. Spiders seemed to be fewer than normal too. Hornets were typical, they tried to ground nest in our potted plants.<br /><br />Not scientific, just my general observations from 25 years of tramping through our woods.<br />Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751991294132134335noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-17237544766924188192015-09-25T21:32:30.777-07:002015-09-25T21:32:30.777-07:00It's just sickening when the media exaggerate ...It's just sickening when the media exaggerate stuff like this.Josh S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07291522301117362687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-31292854482892989572015-09-25T17:01:27.998-07:002015-09-25T17:01:27.998-07:00I don't know about every city on the west side...I don't know about every city on the west side, but I do know that most of them will have no trouble at all filling their reservoirs.<br /><br />I've been paying some attention to the reservoir management for Everett since the newspaper up here keeps telling us "we're going to run out of water in 7-8 months" (paraphrasing, but close to their actual words, last stated early this month). It sounded like such a ridiculous statement given our rainy winters I had to try to find out why they would say such a thing, so I educated myself on our water system and the seasonal forecasts (which this blog was helpful for).<br /><br />NOAA's long term forecasts seem to be indicating the next 6-9 months will see precipitation about 20% less than normal.<br /><br />The Everett reservoir sees over 4 times as much water flow through it in the average year as it actually holds. That works out to something like 8 times as much water as everyone depending on that reservoir actually uses.<br /><br />So far from running out of water in March, as they're inexplicable trying to convince us will happen, it looks like we'll instead have only 6 times as much water as we need instead of the usual 8 times as much.<br /><br />The way Everett usually manages its reservoir, it stops dropping as the rains return in September, and they let it fill up to about 80%, which happens in November, and sometimes December. They then hold it at that level for months to provide extra capacity for flood control. It's not until May that they actually let it start slowly filling the rest of the way, and it doesn't peak until late June.<br /><br />I had originally thought the normal December fill to 80% might take until January, but based on your post with the added detail for the next 3 months, it sounds like there's a good chance the fall fill to 80% will occur as normal. It sounds like the only change the water managers might want to make (just to be conservative...there's no apparent need to), is to be less aggressive about spilling excess water in April and May, to ensure they start the summer completely full. The risk there is the lack of unused storage could mean a big June rainstorm would force them to spill enough water to cause flooding on the Sultan River downstream.iamlucky13https://www.blogger.com/profile/11983645412851735508noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-17545153960492949272015-09-25T17:00:02.758-07:002015-09-25T17:00:02.758-07:00Cliff, great post! As a snowboard shop owner, the...Cliff, great post! As a snowboard shop owner, the term El Niño is usually a big scare to the classic Mt Baker "snow snob" which I am guilty of myself!. However after last winter we should have reset the "worst case scenario" button and should be thankful for a winter with 80% of normal snow pack. death to the blob is a wonderful thing! Hoping for a below average, but way better winter then last year winter with "pent up buyers" ready to hit the slopes! hidden wavehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05103965439065005131noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-56313412536072895302015-09-25T16:38:25.307-07:002015-09-25T16:38:25.307-07:00The media's job is to sensationalize to get cl...The media's job is to sensationalize to get clicks and sell newspapers. They have taken on this mission with gusto.<br /><br />Global warming activists have taken on the job of trying to scare us into action. Also with gusto. <br /><br />On their own, neither one is unexpected or malicious. My fear is that their alliance will backfire and makes things difficult for those who are trying to follow the science. As we are seeing with the VW controversy, you can lose a sympathetic following pretty fast if you cross the line. (VW diesel advocates have been extremely vocal and motivated in extolling their virtues these past years. Those same people are equally scathing in their criticism and litigation.)<br /><br />Of course, the media benefits whether right or wrong. They have already lost credibility, so they can't be hurt.<br /><br />I don't want to see activists lose their credibility. But if so, it will be partially a self-inflicted wound. <br /><br />I still hope that our interconnected world can handle truth without exaggeration, although lately I have been growing more pessimistic about that. Thankfully this blog keeps it real. Thanks, Cliff. <br /><br />John Marshallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08271037292493818827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-80678460232887883692015-09-25T16:27:37.413-07:002015-09-25T16:27:37.413-07:00Cliff, what data did the Department of Ecology us...Cliff, what data did the Department of Ecology use to predict the continuation of the drought? The prediction must have had some basis, you can't just make it up.gahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02870291535996897939noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-39060014594062873042015-09-25T14:26:52.403-07:002015-09-25T14:26:52.403-07:00Thanks Cliff. I appreciate the level-headed asses...Thanks Cliff. I appreciate the level-headed assessment from a very competent meteorologist, especially when the media goes crazy with its politically motivated predictions that have no professional competence behind them.<br /><br />If you were to look ahead to the following winter of 2016-7 at the tail end of the present El Nino, would you expect massive mountain snow accumulations, as we experienced in the winter of 1998-9? I'm especially thinking of the 1,140 inch (95 foot) snow accumulation on Mt Baker that winter. It set a Washington State record, a US record, and a world record. Our El Nino this time will probably not be as strong, but should we expect similarly impressive (though perhaps not record) snow as it wanes?<br /><br />Of course, Mother Nature will always have the final say. That is probably why I prefer being a physicist. We typically explain why something turned out the way that it did, not why it will turn out a particular way!<br /><br />I think that meteorologist Joe Bastardi, who has been very good at predicting recent past winters more or less agrees with you at this point. That gives us a "consensus." :-)<br /><br />Gordon J. Fulks, PhD (Physics)<br />Corbett, Oregon USAAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03394125157445295897noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-9388817660533261282015-09-25T13:35:23.299-07:002015-09-25T13:35:23.299-07:00I understand frustration when the media reports ar...I understand frustration when the media reports are heavy handed on topics that have little evidence to justify the heavy handedness. But, your post seems to be crying "there is no wolf" and I wonder if that is any more appropriate than dooms-day predictions in the media given that seasonal predictions (which have very little skill although admittedly more skill during a strong ENSO phase such as the one we are under) are pointing to normal precip for the fall and drier conditions for late winter and early spring. The CPC projections throughout winter 2014/2015 were for a drier than normal winter in the Pac NW and, as you pointed out on numerous occasions, last winter wasn't a precipitation drought. It was quite normal. The central North American coast could as easily have an anomalously wet winter as break records for dry. From there, spring is a total crap-shoot and where much of the damage was done in 2015. Finally, the bulk of our snowpacks are formed in the months forecast to be the driest so the warm + dry first part of 2016 suggests that, if anything, snowpack will be quite low. So, I think the more honest article would state that all guidance suggests a drier than normal rainy season but this guidance is subject to considerable uncertainty. <br /><br />I think another thing to consider is that, while overwrought stories in the media are frustrating to a scientist who knows better, they can help to move the needle of a public that can be highly inert as a whole. Blob-like if you will. I'm thinking of numerous issues both in climate science and social science where very long campaigns involving both careful analysis and relaying of that information and megaphoning media players have resulted in at least some social change. Granted, one wants the needle to move in the right direction and certain media outlets have a stake in moving the needle against better evidence, but I digress. My point is that a relatively subtle news release by the WSDoE was GREATLY amplified and the response from the public will probably be muted but maybe in the right direction. If a small percentage of people read the headlines and think "oh, perhaps we should continue to think about conserving water" then mission accomplished. faroniumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13953022267862711382noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-40532099843118312772015-09-25T12:43:25.636-07:002015-09-25T12:43:25.636-07:00re: your very last sentence -
How does one under...re: your very last sentence - <br /><br />How does one undercut what one does not have?Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15342967219037330518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-58769582983294489722015-09-25T11:58:17.724-07:002015-09-25T11:58:17.724-07:00As we mourn (celebrate?) the death of our warm &qu...As we mourn (celebrate?) the death of our warm "Blob" in the Pacific, it appears its arch nemesis, a "cold blob" has appeared in the Atlantic. It's not right near the northwest, but I would be curious to hear if it will impact us, and how it will impact East Coast weather. Thanks!<br />http://www.washingtonpost.com/rweb/biz/some-scientists-are-worried-about-a-cold-blob-in-the-north-atlantic-ocean/2015/09/24/93990fb12089db51accf0630a45d51f7_story.htmlAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16275211776158373853noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-11539706358539088582015-09-25T11:15:04.613-07:002015-09-25T11:15:04.613-07:00This was a GREAT post. Thank you! So what about s...This was a GREAT post. Thank you! So what about snow??? Do you think we'll see snow this winter?Beth Niquettehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12123973998090266918noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-84022702747443773262015-09-25T09:46:49.364-07:002015-09-25T09:46:49.364-07:00When it starts raining for real, the media will sw...When it starts raining for real, the media will switch over to "Flood 2016!" <br /><br />The media exist not to communicate information, but to make money. Selling papers in the old days, generating click-through today. And scary, scary headlines do just that.<br /><br />Same as it ever was.Davehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05703540801833479965noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-65998395383305931772015-09-25T09:32:45.994-07:002015-09-25T09:32:45.994-07:00How do these predictions for the fall/winter of 20...How do these predictions for the fall/winter of 2015-16 compare with predictions for the same period last year (2014-15)?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10477719609073862880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-58704125207213959072015-09-25T08:57:51.756-07:002015-09-25T08:57:51.756-07:00Cliff, do you have any maps that compare the predi...Cliff, do you have any maps that compare the predicted temperature anomaly for Jan-Feb-Mar 2016 to the recorded anomaly for Jan-Feb-Mar 2015?sfsadffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14508086073533401300noreply@blogger.com