tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post241075808996418029..comments2024-03-18T22:50:29.792-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Big StormCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-12949014832229635922009-11-06T07:00:15.031-08:002009-11-06T07:00:15.031-08:00Right around midnight/early morning, it started bl...Right around midnight/early morning, it started blowing hard complete with hail going against the windows. Certainly wakes you up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-86321990164993034342009-11-05T19:03:10.779-08:002009-11-05T19:03:10.779-08:00Hello from the other coast-
That IS a beast of a ...Hello from the other coast-<br /><br />That IS a beast of a storm. I do hope it's not as unpleasant as our notorious big one- the pic of the the Andrea Gail does not bring fond memories.<br /><br />Luck & safe harbor to the Deadliest Catch...doubletroublehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04378163493817522427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-61271125835179573222009-11-05T14:03:39.374-08:002009-11-05T14:03:39.374-08:00Dr Mass
This is somewhat off the subject, but coul...Dr Mass<br />This is somewhat off the subject, but could you give a little info on the precip predictions of the UW probabilistic model? I live a little east of Stevens Pass and the precip predictions of the model are consistently way under what we actually get, i.e., the measured precip is always near or above the 90% confidence limit (“as much as”). For example for last Friday night/Saturday (oct 31) storm the expected value (‘likely amount”) was .25”, “as much as” was 1.44”, and we got 1.45”. For last week’s (2 day) storm the “likely amount” was .52”, “as much as” was 3.35”, and actual precip was 3.93” (including 13” of snow). This pattern was also true last year. My specific questions are: 1)is the model only valid for the lowlands or does it take into consideration mountain conditions? The expected values always seem ridiculously low re the forecasts and forecast discussions of the NWS; 2) why is the variability so high, the 90% confidence limit is typically about 7 times the expected value. This is almost meaningless for those of us for whom predicted precip amounts are critical, e.g. “expected amount of snow is 5 in., but there is a 10% chance you will get 40 in.” At least for the mountains, the NWS regional and point forcasts give a much better indication of how much precip we are going to get than the UW probabilistic model. Your thoughts?CChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04249207410731810954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-78692809242409428452009-11-05T13:10:02.202-08:002009-11-05T13:10:02.202-08:00Another wave related question. Will the waves alo...Another wave related question. Will the waves along the coast be worth checking out tomorrow (Friday) or will it have died down by then? I'm thinking of driving along hwy 101 through oregon.Scott K.https://www.blogger.com/profile/09543174609187989825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-3493091679978711042009-11-05T12:41:51.713-08:002009-11-05T12:41:51.713-08:00Hey Cliff,
Front looks on track. I'm sure you...Hey Cliff,<br /><br />Front looks on track. I'm sure you'll blog about this later, but what's the post front weather looking like? Very impressive cellular cold air cumulus behind the front. Cool IR satellite pic of those clouds starting to form right off the Siberia coast moving due west. Also, CAPE values (don't know what that is) on GFS are quite high but do know it correlates to thunderstorm potential. Just wanted to know your thoughts on that. Ttylsmokejumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05358322512081660205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-28174931741117331842009-11-05T12:24:12.719-08:002009-11-05T12:24:12.719-08:00So, Cliff, is this an extratropical cyclone? From ...So, Cliff, is this an extratropical cyclone? From what I could see of the satellite images it almost appears there is an eye up near the Queen Charlottes. I'd be very interested to hear a discussion on these big cold storms.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-61563796762147310252009-11-05T08:21:53.724-08:002009-11-05T08:21:53.724-08:00The Deadliest Catch guys are out on the Bering Sea...The Deadliest Catch guys are out on the Bering Sea right now. Please keep them in your thoughts.EleriCookshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11405443595634157878noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-13860477621556025752009-11-05T07:49:08.051-08:002009-11-05T07:49:08.051-08:00Thanks for the animated gif, Gator. I am curious,...Thanks for the animated gif, Gator. I am curious, just like Scott K, has the forecast changed?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11518681255055707088noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-74948163233688313942009-11-05T07:07:24.509-08:002009-11-05T07:07:24.509-08:00Cliff, Non storm related question. I have been won...Cliff, Non storm related question. I have been wondering about this for awhile why does the weather.com 10 day forecast usually has snow predicted when their low tempature does not support it? I have been wondering about this for awhile.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16888106267784297680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-12732582525550148372009-11-05T05:11:44.233-08:002009-11-05T05:11:44.233-08:00I noticed the NWS pulled all of the weather warnin...I noticed the NWS pulled all of the weather warnings (at least for my area of Lake Stevens) down last night (or didn't renew them). <br /><br />Is there a change in the system coming today to warrant that move? We had something like a severe weather warning or something along those lines posted up Almost all day yesterday, but it was gone in the evening.Scott K.https://www.blogger.com/profile/09543174609187989825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-47125441033704704212009-11-05T01:53:14.190-08:002009-11-05T01:53:14.190-08:00Cool blog, very educational, though I jumped the g...Cool blog, very educational, though I jumped the gun after reading the 1st post and told several people there was a big wind storm coming in.<br /><br />At least now I can explain the true facts and eat crow with some degree of dignity....Dohhhhh!<br /><br />I'm glad I didnt get a razor clamming license for this weekend, those razors will be hunkered down hard, though I would love to go out and watch those waves come in at Greyland.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02579417667814855573noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-82249309394730573522009-11-04T23:00:12.445-08:002009-11-04T23:00:12.445-08:00the nws in spokane is calling for gusty winds. is ...the nws in spokane is calling for gusty winds. is that because when you get to the pullman and spokane the air is lifting since they are higher in elevation thatn chehalis?Diary of a cat householdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03740567152994415008noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-67086903130212491932009-11-04T22:50:22.834-08:002009-11-04T22:50:22.834-08:00So this is the reason that babies are popping out ...So this is the reason that babies are popping out of women all over town! This big low is causing all those full term mamas to go in to labor! All the birth professionals in town are getting calls like crazy! Thanks Cliff!New Moon Birthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13203269482029324090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-10611382148125436182009-11-04T21:47:18.279-08:002009-11-04T21:47:18.279-08:00An insteresting little treatise on waves and swell...An insteresting little treatise on waves and swells may be found at<br /><br />http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/tutorials/wavebasics.shtmldfseattlehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07120897288853853400noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-38461585143759596382009-11-04T20:23:56.715-08:002009-11-04T20:23:56.715-08:00Lovely animation, Gator. Thanks.Lovely animation, Gator. Thanks.mbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04023290571238191194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-24112158970729698302009-11-04T19:45:16.056-08:002009-11-04T19:45:16.056-08:00Lots of east wind blowing in North Bend today and ...Lots of east wind blowing in North Bend today and along I-90 towards Snoqualmie Pass. I've noticed that the east wind tends to flow along the bottom of the upper Snoqualmie valley like a river. At the Mason Lake trailhead and on slopes higher up along the Ira Spring Trail, it was amazingly calm and warm.<br /><br />Something to keep in mind when you arrive at a trailhead along I-90 and that nasty strong east wind is blowing. Often you can hike out of it.JayWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01720743156875939800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-64923539234093010932009-11-04T14:42:50.205-08:002009-11-04T14:42:50.205-08:00Here's an animated image of the big swell comi...Here's an animated image of the big swell coming our way.<br /><br />http://www.lajollasurf.org/images/pacanimne.gifGatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08618194007258091567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-15234676589424889282009-11-04T13:51:16.442-08:002009-11-04T13:51:16.442-08:00Exactly--no big windstorm here..the action is way ...Exactly--no big windstorm here..the action is way offshore. It will get breezy here..no major wind event.Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-48761332062115771212009-11-04T09:48:07.590-08:002009-11-04T09:48:07.590-08:00What does it mean for us inland? A fair bit of rai...What does it mean for us inland? A fair bit of rain and a bit of wind. This will not be a big windstorm ashore. That's not what Cliff intended to communicate.<br /><br />Take a look at this <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d1_wssfc+//72/3" rel="nofollow">36km WRF 10m wind speed loop</a> to get the plot above in context. You can see the spectacular winds move around the south side of the low and peter out before they get to the coast.<br /><br />So this will be a big wave generator as Cllff blogs but this is not going to be a big storm ashore. <br /><br />I think the reason these sort of storms don't get the attention of a hurricane is that most of us never see them because those spectacular winds don't make it ashore. When they do then we notice them. <br /><br />That said, I wouldn't like to be out in the Gulf of Alaska in the next couple of days though ... yikes.Kevin Purcellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18157202870194603923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-37892846526023943382009-11-04T08:49:01.345-08:002009-11-04T08:49:01.345-08:00Pretty dang gusty here, east of Redmond. I'm a...Pretty dang gusty here, east of Redmond. I'm assuming it's the east wind that's suppose to warm us up today. <br /><br />I like this kind of wind. Dry wind. ;)Brianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03294937815522335349noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-50864702525655746012009-11-04T07:42:07.687-08:002009-11-04T07:42:07.687-08:00but are we sure? is this more drama from the post-...but are we sure? is this more drama from the post-tropical transition or whatever? <br />I like weather for the same reason I like backgammon better than chess. Playing that random variable right requires a different kind of ju-ju.Euphoria Gibbonshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15376499450799110123noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-32936378287924626252009-11-04T07:31:02.927-08:002009-11-04T07:31:02.927-08:00sounds exciting. where on the coast would you reco...sounds exciting. where on the coast would you recommend going to get the best view of the show?Bryan E.https://www.blogger.com/profile/12415682059255843633noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-62503390078558373452009-11-04T07:24:06.911-08:002009-11-04T07:24:06.911-08:00the NWS has all sorts of warnings up for the area ...the NWS has all sorts of warnings up for the area including the passes, just in time for my husband's cross country team to go to pasco for state. If i have my way they will go through the gorge.Diary of a cat householdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03740567152994415008noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-69117418645287038792009-11-04T07:09:24.048-08:002009-11-04T07:09:24.048-08:00Thank you for the heads up, Cliff.
This is indeed ...Thank you for the heads up, Cliff.<br />This is indeed an impressive situation developing...Leifhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17917530994808766725noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-12144562380898889352009-11-03T23:42:16.932-08:002009-11-03T23:42:16.932-08:00Woah, I have a timeshare in Ocean Shores. Should ...Woah, I have a timeshare in Ocean Shores. Should I rush there to weather watch or stay away for fear of flooding?veo_https://www.blogger.com/profile/12005856874714826259noreply@blogger.com