tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post2947694542560205829..comments2024-03-28T03:08:44.068-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Record Breaking Precipitation in California: Is Global Warming to Blame?Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger28125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-54740318076294235282017-09-11T19:29:16.414-07:002017-09-11T19:29:16.414-07:00How far back in time do you think you need to go t...How far back in time do you think you need to go to not find great "swings in weather year-to-year [caused by] climate change...like what has been happening in California"? <br /><br />Here is a graph to help you out:<br />http://files.opensnow.com/Tahoe/2017/snowgraph.jpgAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04136128984732851714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-24047915955475039702017-09-11T19:15:50.047-07:002017-09-11T19:15:50.047-07:00http://files.opensnow.com/Tahoe/2017/snowgraph.jpg...http://files.opensnow.com/Tahoe/2017/snowgraph.jpg<br /><br />We just moved to Incline Village and are nervous about our first winter living here and are wondering what to expect. I looked at the graph found at the link above and am left bewildered. Can someone help me find the normal amount of snowfall we receive in the Sierra around Lake Tahoe? Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04136128984732851714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-24053402905768907702017-04-19T10:58:22.824-07:002017-04-19T10:58:22.824-07:00If someone wanted to make a documentary on climate...If someone wanted to make a documentary on climate change that would appeal to those who don't have much concern, they should find people from all over the Northern Hemisphere who have lived around an area long enough to witness the changes. Those "I used to raise reindeer, but now that the permafrost is melting, I'm digging up mammoth ivory" stories are something people can relate more to than the science. It's the farmers noticing changes who will convince others and the stories don't have to be that spectacular. The river that used to freeze and now doesn't is a good enough story. The farmer saying the growing season starts earlier or he can now plant crops that he previously couldn't plant is good enough. Stories requested by the OP are processed by the brain differently than scientific facts. People relate to other people's lives. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15686974077889815874noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-66754762703036945652017-04-16T13:48:32.514-07:002017-04-16T13:48:32.514-07:00@sunsnow12 - No one said there isn't a lot of ...@sunsnow12 - No one said there isn't a lot of snow. There just isn't a corresponding record amount for the northern sierra, which would be a reasonable assumption if we had had a combination of cold year and record precip. <br /><br />Nov, Feb and March were well above average, Dec and Jan near average for California. The 5 month period Nov-Mar was a full two degrees above average. Above average = warm/not cold. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/index.php?periods%5B%5D=5&parameter=tavg&state=4&div=0&month=3&year=2017#ranks-formTimothyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06999259076063112681noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-30453328020231727502017-04-16T12:57:47.989-07:002017-04-16T12:57:47.989-07:00@Sunsnow12
This story from the Washington Post ha...@Sunsnow12<br /><br />This story from the Washington Post has a better graphic showing winter temps in California in that it covers departures from average for December to February. And also, since it has the entire contiguous U.S. is a reminder that the majority of the country did have a warmer winter. <br /><br />https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/03/28/forecasts-for-this-past-winter-were-mostly-awful-blame-the-fickle-pacific-ocean/?utm_term=.5d642449b26aJohn Franklinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16424249779395129712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-43844370919668502982017-04-16T09:02:56.618-07:002017-04-16T09:02:56.618-07:00Eric...Well I am just reading another Mann etal ar...Eric...Well I am just reading another Mann etal article on a wave-guide theory of amplification of wave activity with global warming....very weak work. I am amazed it was even published..cliffCliff Mass Weather Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-71975669218923011272017-04-16T07:24:06.382-07:002017-04-16T07:24:06.382-07:00Cliff - I don't know what to make of Mann anym...Cliff - I don't know what to make of Mann anymore, his research has been called into question so often that I find it amazing that anyone still cites him as an expert on climate. However, this technique of making up stuff and throwing it at the wall to see what sticks has infected much of the culture. Just look at the earlier comment on how an amateur astronomer's observations have led him to conclude that because he hasn't been able to see the stars very often during the winter, it must be because of GW. Eric Blairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09376653214948517679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-9362895171980330732017-04-16T00:28:20.185-07:002017-04-16T00:28:20.185-07:00Eric
Sounds to me like you've spent a lot of ...Eric<br /><br />Sounds to me like you've spent a lot of time at WUWT. If you disagree with Mann's opinions, just stick with Cliff Mass. He has a wealth of information and from what I've seen, his position's are always based on the best evidence.<br /><br />Cliff Alexander Cliffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11062254048174927166noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-39669364208838074412017-04-15T17:06:40.315-07:002017-04-15T17:06:40.315-07:00Timothy said "Oregon and Washington had a col...Timothy said "Oregon and Washington had a cold winter, but California did not, just like the rest of the country. If California had had a cold winter, obviously record precip would likely translate into record snow, which it has not."<br /><br />Are you saying every location in CA had record precip? Because that is clearly not true. And there is nothing "obvious" about precip turning to snow -- it is far more complex than that -- but even so the snowfall in California has been massive, and that is supported by every data point and (non-ideological) article out there.<br /><br />There are plenty of areas that had record or near record snowfall - http://abc7.com/weather/california-snowpack-nears-record-depths/1779896/. Here is an LA Times two weeks ago stating "California Snowpack Is One of the Biggest Ever Reported" http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-sierra-nevada-snowpack-measurement-20170330-story.html<br /><br />And the reality is they are not done measuring it, and it will likely break all-time records in a number of locations.<br /><br />There is zero evidence 2017 has been "warm" in California, unless you want to hunt out specific areas (like the SE). In fact here is a map proving it: http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/anomimage.pl?wrcJanTxdep.gif<br /><br />Particularly in areas where the vast majority of snow accumulates in the state, again... can you please provide evidence of it being "warm" this winter, and also data from the NWS backing that up?sunsnow12https://www.blogger.com/profile/16856025812008113046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-22155346255338965672017-04-15T12:34:18.711-07:002017-04-15T12:34:18.711-07:00Perhaps, Cliff, you could explain to me as an astr...Perhaps, Cliff, you could explain to me as an astronomer why winters in the Pacific Northwest as of the last four years have been getting progressively worse. I have been a lifelong fan of yours for years, however as an astronomer who once had quite a lot of 'night sky time' in years past, I cannot believe you think that this cannot be because of global warming.<br /><br />As a Shelton-based astronomer and a lifelong weather geek, I am a little put off by this entry. This winter has been by far, the worst for astronomy. Last year wasn't much better. Ten years ago, I averaged 25 clear nights at the telescope from October 1st to April 1st. <br /><br />This year? I've had only three. All of those were in January. Last year? I had only four.<br /><br />I cannot fathom that climate change isn't somehow responsible for the worsening skies that astronomers in the PNW have dealt with over the last few years. As an astronomy club founder, I can't even plan a star party anymore. <br /><br />-Steve Rosenow<br />(One frustrated astronomer in Shelton)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06502844645759822989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-40608661426905688492017-04-15T10:41:55.615-07:002017-04-15T10:41:55.615-07:00Cliff - point taken. OTOH, here we go again with a...Cliff - point taken. OTOH, here we go again with additional moving of the goalposts: <br /><br />http://time.com/4731632/climate-change-2020-trump/<br /><br />Mann had to dramatically revise his infamous "hockey stick" chart after it was discovered that he had used incorrect and/or fraudulent data, now he's revising his predictions of another infamous "tipping point" to a later date. He's never wrong, it's just that his previous ironclad predictions were just off a bit. Second verse, same as the first. Eric Blairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09376653214948517679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-43097929076006825152017-04-15T10:34:15.566-07:002017-04-15T10:34:15.566-07:00@sunsnow12 - "Snowpack in California’s mounta...@sunsnow12 - "Snowpack in California’s mountains is also well above average and the highest since the very wet/snowy winter of 2010-2011. What is striking, however, is how much Sierra snow water equivalent has lagged overall precipitation. For example, Northern Sierra snow water equivalent is currently 145% of average (vs 202% of average for overall precipitation). This effect has been particularly pronounced at middle-elevation regions where wintertime temperatures are more “marginal” for frozen precipitation than at colder, higher elevations. While this winter has certainly been colder than recent (record warm) ones, conditions have still been near to above average across most of the state–and more importantly, have been considerably warmer than during most of California’s historically wet winters."<br /><br />http://weatherwest.com/archives/5621Timothyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06999259076063112681noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-85056222251254074022017-04-15T10:30:42.287-07:002017-04-15T10:30:42.287-07:00@sunsnow12 - This post is about California, not th...@sunsnow12 - This post is about California, not the Northwest. Oregon and Washington had a cold winter, but California did not, just like the rest of the country. If California had had a cold winter, obviously record precip would likely translate into record snow, which it has not. Timothyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06999259076063112681noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-72664124024797675612017-04-14T23:19:43.078-07:002017-04-14T23:19:43.078-07:00Seattle Jim
It might turn out that there is a lin...Seattle Jim<br /><br />It might turn out that there is a link between climate change and California's recent weather. Cliff's point is that right now there is no EVIDENCE for such a claim. <br /><br />Cliff Alexander <br /><br />Cliffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11062254048174927166noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-32425647767551030782017-04-14T22:33:17.662-07:002017-04-14T22:33:17.662-07:00Eric
I understand your point and mostly agree. Y...Eric<br /><br />I understand your point and mostly agree. Your comment does overlook something very important, though. NORMAL weather, by definition the most common variety, is almost never associated with climate change. <br /><br />Cliff Alexander Cliffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11062254048174927166noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-17761757360443480502017-04-14T18:53:46.930-07:002017-04-14T18:53:46.930-07:00During our recent visit to Joshua Tree National Pa...During our recent visit to Joshua Tree National Park, we encountered amazing flower displays thanks to the amount of rain they had this winter and spring.Jarvhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14115615611758739082noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-59840429321687268082017-04-14T16:11:10.417-07:002017-04-14T16:11:10.417-07:00Note that there is small increase over southern Ca...<i>Note that there is small increase over southern California and a modest increase (about .5-1 mm per day or around 1.75 to 3.5 inches) for the entire winter.</i><br /><br />Doesn't using this when talking about one year's weather violate the climate vs. weather rule? Yes, the average increase in precipitation will be small, but what about the variability? I thought that the climate models all predicted that there will be much greater swings in weather year-to-year with climate change? Drought one year, deluge the next. Oh, kind of like what has been happening in California...<br /><br />Frankly, it really feels like you are grasping for reasons to show that extreme weather is <i>not</i> caused by climate change with every one of these posts.Jason Whttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00728540681418998824noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-68116922600739862642017-04-14T16:06:40.386-07:002017-04-14T16:06:40.386-07:00A think an unequivocal “no” response to the questi...A think an unequivocal “no” response to the question you pose at the start of the article is a bit on the strong side. While I’m not a climate expert, I have spent my entire career working with environment models of various sorts. My concern with ruling out climate change as being any part of this large increase in accumulated precipitation is two-fold: first, there are still uncertainties in our climate models, particularly when precipitation is involved; second, a large departure from what has been “normal” (or even beyond previous maxima) could be a manifestation of an unstable transition state of the atmosphere. The first point is somewhat self-explanatory, so I’ll focus on the second.<br /><br />At best, the climate models provide transitions from one state to another along what I would characterize as equilibrium states. As you are well aware, in a mathematically chaotic system such as our weather system, transition states can vary quite a bit from the equilibrium states as the system moves from one long-term equilibrium state (the past) to another (our future). That said, I don’t think that the fact that this past winter’s heavy precipitation load was way out of line with both the past and with climate models is necessarily a reason to state flatly that the event was not a side effect of climate change. However, it doesn’t necessariy mean that it was due to climate change, either. My criticism here is that I am not comfortable with your hard-and-fast “no” answer. I think it’s more of a “probably not, but it could be.”Seattle Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00686243946507691525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-86438018302581073572017-04-14T15:28:55.110-07:002017-04-14T15:28:55.110-07:00Timothy said: "The fact that it's a recor...Timothy said: "The fact that it's a record precip year but not a record snow year certainly could have something to do with global warming. Like all recent years, dry or wet, it's been warm, which is certainly consistent with what global warming would produce."<br /><br />Where in the western US was it warm this winter? It was one of the harshest winters in a generation. Here is Cliff's post from 3/11: http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/03/the-coldest-winter-in-generation-for.html<br /><br />It was the coldest winter since 1985 according to the NWS. Look at the map on that 3/11 post by Cliff. Exactly where in the western US was it "like all recent years, dry or wet, it's been warm". <br /><br />As for snow, here is an article from the Methow that calls the snowpack in the N. Cascades "unusually massive". http://methowvalleynews.com/2017/03/31/heavy-snows-will-delay-opening-of-n-cascades-highway/ The N. Cascades Pass may have it's latest opening of all time due to that fact. In some areas of our state we came very close to record snowfall, particularly in the N. Cascades. The snowpack remains >110% across almost all regions in the state. California is off the charts.<br /><br />Can you please back up your claim that "like all recent years, dry or wet, it's been warm"?sunsnow12https://www.blogger.com/profile/16856025812008113046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-49942480123467529572017-04-14T15:26:45.989-07:002017-04-14T15:26:45.989-07:00This is part and parcel of why the GW crowd has ye...This is part and parcel of why the GW crowd has yet to be taken seriously by everyone - it doesn't matter what happens with the weather each year, everything and anything is twisted, manipulated and crammed into yet more "proof" of severe climate change. Did you get more rain this year? Simple reason - GW. Did you experience a drought? Of course you did - because GW. How about more snow than usual? You got it - GW. It would help their cause if they admitted just once that their models are not infallible and that maybe - just maybe - they can be proven incorrect at times in their predictions.Humility is not their strong suit, and it's not helping their cause.Eric Blairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09376653214948517679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-6153529565817951342017-04-14T15:25:58.758-07:002017-04-14T15:25:58.758-07:00Hi Cliff
Any connection between the large El Niño...Hi Cliff<br /><br />Any connection between the large El Niño of 2015-16 and last winter's precipitation?<br /><br />Looking back at the previous large El Niño in 1997-98 and Mt. Baker's record snowfall in 1998-99<br /><br />Curious what you think.<br />DaveDavehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04855897450373242181noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-6521213865225158272017-04-14T12:51:36.376-07:002017-04-14T12:51:36.376-07:00Fantastic post, Cliff! I'm becoming a huge fa...Fantastic post, Cliff! I'm becoming a huge fan. <br /><br />Cliff AlexanderCliffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11062254048174927166noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-56040150992885471072017-04-14T09:53:28.628-07:002017-04-14T09:53:28.628-07:00Thanks for the insightful post.
There appears to ...Thanks for the insightful post.<br /><br />There appears to be a wide gulf between global warming and actual presumed climate change.<br />Many attributed climate changes are actually contraindicated by GCMs.<br />And as you point out here, the extent of modeled changes are small compared with the extent of observed fluctuations imposed by fluctuations of wave patterns.<br /><br />This does raise some points/questions:<br /><br />1. Which aspects of climate change due to enhanced greenhouse gasses are actually predictable? <br />There are no control runs of actual climate so there's always argument of the 'counter-factual',<br />but early work ( Manabe and Wetherald, 1979 and others ) noted that with increased CO2, we'd expect:<br /><br />* increased global mean temperature<br />* cooling stratosphere (from the intense response)<br />* large and out of phase Arctic warming ( from latent heat of freezing )<br />* sub-polar upper tropospheric hot spot ( area of increased warming )<br />* increased evaporation<br />* increase in global mean water vapor<br />* increase in water vapor transport to high latitudes with precipitation<br />* decrease in snowfall<br />* commensurate decrease in pole to equator SW gradient<br />* commensurate decrease in temperature variability<br />* commensurate decrease in kinetic energy associated with a weaker jet stream.<br />* commensurate poleward migration of jet stream <br /><br />Observed, though not precluding natural variability are:<br />increased global mean temperature, decreased stratospheric temperature, large and out of phase Arctic warming<br /><br />Contraindicated, at least for the satellite era: the hot spot<br /><br />Uncertain small signal or limited measurements: evaporation, water vapor, decreased snowfall, gradients, variability, jet stream changes<br /><br />The wave pattern for a year, as evidenced by the data above, is not predictable.<br /><br />Which things are predictable?<br /><br />2. I can hear Jenifer Francis and Michael Mann thinking out load about the persistent though moderate wave pattern you identify behind this past year's precipitation. This is predicated by a decreasingly intense merdional thermal gradient. In MW79, the authors identified such a decrease in gradient/jet/kinetic energy. But it also appears that this was based on a too intense decrease in high latitude snowfall compared with more recent 4xCO2 GCM runs:<br /><br />https://i1.wp.com/climatewatcher.webs.com/SW_Manabe_GISS.png<br /><br />So perhaps a weaker jet stream is a plausible, but very small extent prediction.<br /><br />How does one verify/falsify the theory of the weaker,wavier,stagnant jet?<br /><br />The weaker jet theory is interesting to me because there's a big disagreement: Francis/Mann say weaker. Hansen says, no, high latitude oceans changes mean a stronger jet. <br />Rossby's original considerations were before the RAOB era, so he proposed looking at surface temperature, which Francis invokes ( Arctic Amplification ). But the thermal wind of the jet is aloft, and indeed, if the Hot Spot were to occur, it would imply an increased gradient, apart from Hansen's oceanic arguments.<br /><br />It appears that there is disagreement about what's modeled, much less observed with respect to the general circulation and any associated changes.<br /><br /><br />3. Your presentation sounds interesting - any chance of a recording and posting it here?<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-88575747917404738792017-04-14T09:47:57.269-07:002017-04-14T09:47:57.269-07:00The fact that it's a record precip year but no...The fact that it's a record precip year but not a record snow year certainly could have something to do with global warming. Like all recent years, dry or wet, it's been warm, which is certainly consistent with what global warming would produce.Timothyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06999259076063112681noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-18402124008534041722017-04-14T08:36:42.721-07:002017-04-14T08:36:42.721-07:00jdm83
I looked at upper level wave amplitude....jdm83<br /> I looked at upper level wave amplitude...and found just the opposite....deamplification. My work is published in the peer-reviewed literature..cliffCliff Mass Weather Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.com