tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post3011399294347473994..comments2024-03-28T10:16:44.231-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: The Northern California Fires: Driven by the Diablo Winds That Were Predicted Days BeforeCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-71137540661094493222017-11-21T08:06:05.341-08:002017-11-21T08:06:05.341-08:00They were wild for forest fires. They were microwa...They were wild for forest fires. They were microwave fires created by cell towers and solar flares. And it will happen again, especially with the 5G Network coming online.<br /><br />https://medium.com/@james.4base/sunspots-and-cell-towers-fueled-the-northern-california-firestorm-6e05c830fc8d<br /><br /><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15404729919240047805noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-32586278090364339452017-10-12T08:31:15.081-07:002017-10-12T08:31:15.081-07:00"Minutes to Escape: How One California
Wildfi...<br />"Minutes to Escape: How One California<br />Wildfire Damaged So Much So Quickly"<br />New York Times<br /><br />https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/10/12/us/california-wildfire-conditions-speed.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0Discreet Charmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17993685338153818967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-30117669104564943432017-10-11T16:33:47.764-07:002017-10-11T16:33:47.764-07:00Cliff
You have made some valid points.
"Nor...Cliff <br />You have made some valid points.<br /><br />"Northern California was at the climatologically driest point of the year, after a summer of little rain (which is normal). In fact, the latest official drought U.S. monitor graphic did not show particularly unusual dry conditions"<br /><br />This is correct.<br />Fuel Moistures from the closes RAWS stations (before the event) where in the normal percentile for this time of year.<br /><br />"This event should be considered a severe storm situation, driven by a well-forecast weather phenomenon."<br /><br />This was considered a sever situation. Red Flag Watches were posted up days before the event for most of Northern California including the Bay Area. Red Flag Warnings were also posted up timely for a huge swath of area in Northern California.<br /><br />Meteorologists producing watches, warnings and forecasts must deal with the reality that inherently all forecasts of meteorological events are by their nature not perfect. With Fire and Wind events you need to add in another input to this equation; FIRE IGNITION.<br /><br />Unless you know where all the weak power poles are (ones that will fall over in winds and create fires), or where the arsonist is going to strike his match, or who is going to be carless with his stove ashes, or who is going to drag their boat chains along the road, you have no idea, in the VAST response area that was under the Red Flag Warning where disaster will strike. That does not mean you can’t prepare with the timely warnings that “were” put in place. <br /><br />Fact<br />*Before the event Fire Crews across the state had their time-off days cancelled and put on special staffing patterns<br />*Resources were pulled from low potential areas to stage closer to the Red Flag fire zones in anticipation of the event<br />*Air Resources where held on contract and staged, especial the vary large air tankers (VLAT)<br />*Air Resources could not fly (as they usually do for initial attack) do to starts that were in the middle of the night<br />*Ad campaigns where posted from CALFIRE to multiple news agencies before the event of the oncoming danger<br /><br />California invented the mutual aid mobilization guide for wildfire and are masters of the art (getting more resources where they are needed). The mobilization was a quick response in the chaos.<br /><br />The Tubbs Fire which burned through Santa Rosa Neighborhoods started up in the urban interface and moved out of it and into the blacktop jungle of a city. Flames took direct aim for the heart of a city, not just the rural outskirts, not just the homes high in the hills or off the grid. The fire jumped a 6-lane highway (101). This was an “exceptional” event. As soon as it left the wildland it turned into a multi-structure (exposure) event. <br /><br />Everyone who lives in the Urban Interface in California knows how to live with wildfire (State law to mitigate your property from wildfire). It has been a way of life as much as Earthquakes and Floods. But sometimes you get something special, a dragon so wild and dangerous even for firefighters who are accustomed to fighting the beast. <br /><br />The other fire that I can think of is the Cedar Fire (2003). This made its way down into the blacktop neighborhoods of San Diego. This was the cousin of the North Winds;Santa Ana’s. Oakland Hills Fire was up in the urban interface.<br /><br />Great explanation on the North Winds (Diablo Winds)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04217862096086482346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-79252257417218796422017-10-11T10:02:49.068-07:002017-10-11T10:02:49.068-07:00Hurricane Nate killed over 30+ people in Central A...Hurricane Nate killed over 30+ people in Central America. Like California, weather can be made worse by terrain and public response to an event. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06903603876617394962noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-40704757647570483092017-10-11T08:38:17.290-07:002017-10-11T08:38:17.290-07:00per below, NWS SF issued the following Red Flag wa...per below, NWS SF issued the following Red Flag watch on Thursday and updated it to a Red Flag Warning on Friday:<br />URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE<br />National Weather Service San Francisco CA<br />1108 AM PDT Thu Oct 5 2017<br /><br />...Fire Weather Watch Sunday through late Monday night...<br /><br />.A classic autumn fire weather pattern is forecast to develop<br />later this weekend into early next week. Warm temperatures, low<br />humidity and gusty north winds will coincide with critically dry <br />fuels. Current indications suggest this will be the strongest <br />offshore wind event so far this fall.<br /><br />~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~<br /><br />URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE<br />National Weather Service San Francisco CA<br />949 AM PDT Fri Oct 6 2017<br /><br />...Red Flag Warning Sunday through late Monday night...<br /><br />.A classic autumn fire weather pattern is forecast to develop<br />later this weekend into early next week. Warm temperatures, low<br />humidity and gusty north winds will coincide with critically dry<br />fuels. Current indications suggest this will be the strongest<br />offshore wind event so far this fall.<br /><br />CAZ507-070400-<br />/O.UPG.KMTR.FW.A.0003.171008T1800Z-171010T1200Z/<br />/O.NEW.KMTR.FW.W.0006.171008T1800Z-171010T1200Z/<br />North Bay Mountains-<br />949 AM PDT Fri Oct 6 2017<br /><br />...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM PDT<br />TUESDAY FOR STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE <br />WEATHER ZONE 507...<br /><br />The National Weather Service in San Francisco has issued a Red<br />Flag Warning, which is in effect from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM PDT<br />Tuesday. The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect. <br /><br /><br />* WIND...Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph gusts 40 to 55 mph.<br /><br />* HUMIDITY...10-20 percent afternoon with night time recovery <br /> under 30 percent.<br /><br />* HIGHEST THREAT...is located in the Napa County hills as well <br /> as around Mount Saint Helena and the hills of Marin around <br /> Mount Tamalpais.<br /><br />* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. <br /> Outdoor burning is not recommended.<br /> <br /> Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00720084880767786380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-45413237030069975382017-10-10T21:59:51.178-07:002017-10-10T21:59:51.178-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Mary and Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08332930828517797249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-67599993199452984672017-10-10T20:33:00.908-07:002017-10-10T20:33:00.908-07:00If I recall you have criticized the drought monito...If I recall you have criticized the drought monitor for being slow to respond to changing conditions. Is it possible that's the case here? It's really scary to think that something this bad could happen under normal conditions.Weather Devoteehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07071334949599205140noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-50713129831367388802017-10-10T19:54:05.069-07:002017-10-10T19:54:05.069-07:00The implication seems to be that NOAA didn't r...The implication seems to be that NOAA didn't raise the proper warnings ahead of time, but I don't think that's what you truly intend to say. I know that up here in the PNW, every weather app I have generates ALERTS when NOAA puts out Red Flag Warnings about extreme fire weather conditions.<br /><br />Did that not happen in fire-sensitive California? <br /><br />If they did raise the Red Flags days ahead of time, then anyone who looked at any weather forecast in that time should have seen the warnings. <br /><br />What surprises me in CA (and this seemed to also be happening back when I lived in SOCAL in the 90's) was that when the strong winds of early Fall are forecast, you can almost guarantee fires popping up precisely when they arrived. Given that wind doesn't create fire, it always seemed that there were people (who did watch the weather forecasts) who were starting the fires. Either that or a lot of fires suddenly got away when the first gusts came through. But campfires and other forms of outdoor burning have been prohibited in the whole state since early summer. <br /><br />Carelessness or intent? When I lived there, the consensus was that it was intent. If so, then the bad guys are paying much closer attention to the forecasts than the media and general public.Johnamarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17737399978789523366noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-47072358730070688852017-10-10T16:52:43.763-07:002017-10-10T16:52:43.763-07:00I completey agree that this should have been consi...I completey agree that this should have been considered a severe weather event. Thank you for documenting it. I hope that forecasts of the potential for such wildfires can be better utilized in the future. It is dismaying that so many people had very little if any warning to escape the firestorms, and tnat this did not need to be the case. - Steve KruegerUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14543659054125289279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-53387795119238401392017-10-10T15:19:39.720-07:002017-10-10T15:19:39.720-07:00After the fires of OR, WA and BC this summer, I ha...After the fires of OR, WA and BC this summer, I have no idea why anyone would not have anticipated what has occurred. Additionally, they've had decades of non - burning of the forests there (as we've already noted previously in the above mentioned areas), so the mass of fuel that was ready to pop was altogether too familiar. Sad. Eric Blairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09376653214948517679noreply@blogger.com