tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post3228087936586987608..comments2024-03-28T10:16:44.231-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: The Forecasting and Climate Lessons of Superstorm SandyCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-19454584872234044382013-10-31T15:55:39.964-07:002013-10-31T15:55:39.964-07:00I wish they would not call it a "Superstorm&q...I wish they would not call it a "Superstorm"! After all it was only a Class 1.<br /><br />The East had been spared severe hurricanes- until Sandy- for several decades now and I think people had been starting to forget. Even some scientists, forgetting New England history, started blaming Global Warming. (There was an "authority" on KUOW, just recently, talking as though hurricanes were something new.) But my father clearly remembers the severe storms of 1954, 1955, and the granddaddy of the last century, the great hurricane of 1938 (I think they did not have names for them back then).<br /><br />Wake up Easterners! Hurricanes are part of your weather. Put those cottages back from the beach a ways.Anselhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13835758313287462921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-79183283026483879842013-10-31T07:43:07.657-07:002013-10-31T07:43:07.657-07:00Hi Cliff,
What role would the displaced high hav...Hi Cliff, <br /><br />What role would the displaced high have out over the northern Atlantic due to the lower amounts of polar ice on the north pole?<br /><br />I think I read that displaced highs can be more common due to lack of sea ice?<br /><br />ThanksMichael Snyderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06230219537755848399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-33746885175161226722013-10-30T20:10:42.992-07:002013-10-30T20:10:42.992-07:00Another interesting aspect of Sandy was its size. ...Another interesting aspect of Sandy was its size. The largest Atlantic hurricane on record. Focusing only on its Saffir-Simpson rating overlooks this.<br /><br />Apparently the five largest Atlantic hurricanes have occurred since 1996, though our ability to measure hurricane diameter is probably better now.<br /><br />A storm that makes a weird left turn, was the largest on record, and inundated the Big Apple... You can see why mayors and city planners might be scared, especially with the added expectation of future sea level rise.<br /><br />The pinocchio pic looks a bit unfair in this context.<br /><br />- Douglas<br />Douglashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13400304542602805292noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-24392267277565781812013-10-30T12:36:08.028-07:002013-10-30T12:36:08.028-07:00"Will Storms Like Sandy Be More Frequent Unde..."Will Storms Like Sandy Be More Frequent Under Global Warming?"<br /><br />The "left hook" of the storm was interesting, and deserves more study (you don't directly address the arctic amplification theory). <br /><br />But, like Katrina, Sandy's "killer" characteristic was the inundation it caused. <br /><br />Yet you don't reference sea level rise. Admittedly it played a negligible role with Sandy, but "flood" hurricanes (as opposed to extreme wind damage ala Andrew) will surely become more common "under global warming."<br /><br />Would you buy property on the SE US coast? I sure wouldn't, though I'm probably a fair bit younger than you...Douglashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13400304542602805292noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-4345031240645185932013-10-30T11:48:46.174-07:002013-10-30T11:48:46.174-07:00John,
The track is important because the traje...John,<br /> The track is important because the trajectory was so very unusual. I know very well about the 1962 storm...very famous out here...the Columbus Day event. At this point, there is no solid information about hybrids becoming either more intense or more frequent in the area...so I think we have to be very careful about such speculations. We need to get beyond handwaving speculations...cliffCliff Mass Weather Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-83146683602770931522013-10-30T11:03:24.955-07:002013-10-30T11:03:24.955-07:00While it is important to separate hype from legiti...While it is important to separate hype from legitimate concerns, it's also important not to overgeneralize in the other direction. For me, the meteorological issue with Sandy was not its track. Its true that GW impacts can't be reasonably attributed to a change in storm or hurricane tracks. <br /> <br />However, a hybrid wave cyclone-tropical system (meaning much of the tropical system's circulation embedded in the warm sector of the frontal cyclone) , such as Sandy poses a different set of issues. The higher mixing ratios/PWATS expected off of warm ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream should conceivably lead to storm intensification due to diabatic warming effects.<br /><br />As you know, there were some spectacular examples of this kind of synergy on the West Coast recently, and a great example from this time of year back in 1962 (with the remnants of Typhoon Freda) feeding back to the "bomb" formation west of the California coastline. <br /><br />So I disagree that ALL comments about GW's possible impact on future hybrid storms have no basis in evidence. I agree that many to most such comments are not correct, though. So your main point is one I agree with.John Monteverdihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08699773137514930858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-71331489328794987662013-10-30T10:58:16.385-07:002013-10-30T10:58:16.385-07:00Cliff, I think you're right about the connecti...Cliff, I think you're right about the connection between the meteorological side of hurricanes, etc. But a big part of what people are talking about is the contribution of sea-level rise to the storm surge that was so damaging. NOAA did find that sea-level rise due to climate change will make Sandy-like storm surges much more common in the New York area, even from weaker storms. (link: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20130905-extremeweatherandclimateevents.html)Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11227294172839721666noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-66745704905747414092013-10-30T05:22:23.384-07:002013-10-30T05:22:23.384-07:00Cliff,
How about a talk about AGW here in Seattle...Cliff,<br /><br />How about a talk about AGW here in Seattle? codetalkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04024436146473451518noreply@blogger.com