tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post3694170882944473268..comments2024-03-18T22:19:34.702-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Southeast Olympic SnowstormCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger42125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-91619980687156994792012-01-24T06:51:54.244-08:002012-01-24T06:51:54.244-08:00Ron,
This does not have to do with your or othe...Ron,<br /> This does not have to do with your or others memory...or my blog. The NWS forecasts on Tuesday night are public record and are on the web. They were NOT going for a big storm when the ST created that headline. The NWS forecast is what the ST should be communicating and the paper instead chose to hype the storm...cliffCliff Mass Weather Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-53842829212970286332012-01-23T23:10:41.285-08:002012-01-23T23:10:41.285-08:00Cliff,
It seems that meteorologists (especially th...Cliff,<br />It seems that meteorologists (especially those on tv) need to scale back such specific forecasts so far in advance especially when it's based almost solely on imperfect numerical models. For example, 5,10 ore even 15-day forecasts predicting highs and lows to the nearest degree and precipitation to the nearest hundredth of an inch? No way anyone is that good! Their experience in the weather field should tell them that there is a large uncertainty with models so far out trying to predict such a complicated storm. <br /><br />Perhaps the best forecast that could have been made several days out was that a big snow storm is likely but the location is uncertain. Or we will get snow, but the amounts have a high uncertainty ranging from 2-20 inches. Btw...I remember you blogging that it all depended on where the low would come in and that +/- 50 miles would make a big difference. They should tell people that that's the best that can be done until the storm gets closer. A good example is with hurricane forecasts when the cone of the storm's probable path and intensity is shown.<br /><br />It is more beneficial to the public to know the uncertainty in the forecast as what may be a conservative forecast to one person may be unconservative to another. If the uncertainty is low, Great!. If not, let it be known. This is the approach that engineers who are held personally responsible for their forecasts take. It is the engineers job to estimate a systems response and to inform their clients of how accurate they think they are. Then the client can make an informed decision going forward. Meteorologists should treat the public the same way. <br /><br />By the way...can you explain the difference between the temperature and bias corrected temperature plots? As I followed the storm it seemed that the bias corrected temp indicated the cold might stick around a little longer.Matthewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03924852053592427776noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-8776172478383331082012-01-23T22:39:24.954-08:002012-01-23T22:39:24.954-08:00Not the way I remember it, Cliff, and if it's ...Not the way I remember it, Cliff, and if it's true that your earlier posts have been edited without being so indicated, it's sort of a moot point to discuss the precise timing of it now.<br /><br />By the way, sorry for a couple typos in my post. It should have read "difficulty" and "sticking."<br /><br />RonRon juddhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17097159429551722237noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-62964799284690657552012-01-23T20:31:52.265-08:002012-01-23T20:31:52.265-08:00Ron and Stackhouse,
You guys are not understan...Ron and Stackhouse,<br /> You guys are not understanding me! On Tuesday night, the NWS forecast (and mine) was for a very modest snow event over Seattle (3-5 inches). Annual event. The ST then put up the megastorm headline. This was quite irresponsible of the paper. The fact that a few days before I mentioned the possibility of a big event is absolutely irrelevant. My forecast had been changed due to the shift of the model solutions over the past several days. <br /><br /> ..cliffCliff Mass Weather Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-37714580117298798412012-01-23T19:33:24.588-08:002012-01-23T19:33:24.588-08:00I'm a little worried about Dale. If he doesn&#...I'm a little worried about Dale. If he doesn't clear that snow off his railing he is likely to spill his cocktail.skydiveboyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17174073226290431753noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-86698918477423895792012-01-23T16:34:45.381-08:002012-01-23T16:34:45.381-08:00Cliff,
Could you give us your explanation for the ...Cliff,<br />Could you give us your explanation for the extensive icing this morning? Temps in my car were 37º, no fog, yet points south (West Marginal, 509, which they closed) were like a skating rink.mdehhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00235929313691325193noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-58523470955095504112012-01-23T14:39:00.712-08:002012-01-23T14:39:00.712-08:00One thing I was disappointed with all around was t...One thing I was disappointed with all around was the lack of any warning of a potential for massive power outages...I should have deduced that on my own accord, but not once did I hear a warning that widespread power outages were likely. It would have given folks the chance to prepare and hunker down. This is not the job of a weather forcaster, per se, but some media source should have sounded the warning alarm. NE Thurston County...near Nisqually Reach...no power since Thursday 11am. Not harping or anything...it just would have been helpful from -some-source (including my own brain...LOL) Thanks Prof. MaasAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-37399139305485281532012-01-23T14:30:59.441-08:002012-01-23T14:30:59.441-08:00Bright, BRIGHT, sun in Lacey right now...if I didn...Bright, BRIGHT, sun in Lacey right now...if I didn't know better, it looks like a summer day. Oddities of nature abound.........Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-82324577663273044592012-01-23T10:49:26.284-08:002012-01-23T10:49:26.284-08:00Cliff,
Can you comment on the "?localized&quo...Cliff,<br />Can you comment on the "?localized" icy roads we had this morning south of Seattle. For example, West Marginal and 509 south were like skating rinks. Car temps showed 37-38º F without Fog.<br />Thanksmdehhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00235929313691325193noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-67635058930005128912012-01-23T10:38:22.958-08:002012-01-23T10:38:22.958-08:00Journalists are easy targets just like weather for...Journalists are easy targets just like weather forecasters, and often for reasons just as specious.<br /><br />Cliff, you keep saying that forecasts change. Of course they do. *Nobody* that I've read here or elsewhere is saying that you should have held on to an outdated and erroneous forecast. Well, maybe some people did, but those people don't understand science or the nature of predictions.<br /><br />The issue here is that the Seattle Times reported on the best information it had available, just as you did - and that forecast agreed with yours. Because they're a print publication and had to lock their copy in early and can't edit it online, their prediction for huge snow looked outdated when it printed. Unlike you, they weren't able to modify their forecast. (except online, where they did modify it)<br /><br />What bothers some of us is that you then ridiculed them for their headline and reporting, when *they were reporting exactly what you had reported!* It was unfair and intellectually dishonest. In effect you were guilty of doing something very similar to what you're accusing others of doing, armchair quarterbacking somebody who had to make a decision of what to tell people based on the best information they have. They just don't have the same flexibility to update by-the-minute that you do.<br /><br />That is the issue - you were unfair about it. You continue to be unfair about it, and that has *nothing* to do with the fact that forecasts change. <br /><br />And some of your behavior just makes it worse:<br />- going back and editing caveats into your older posts without making a note that they had been edited, which is frowned upon in web etiquette and makes it looks like you're trying to cover your tracks<br />- removing your initial swipe at the Times, not because you realized it was unfair or wrong, but because you "guessed it was a distraction," as if it's our fault that we identified it as unfair and called you on it<br />- and now tagging this additional swipe at the Times at the bottom of an unrelated post<br /><br />You are a great weather forecaster and personality, and we all read this blog because we love you. But this is amateur and bush-league, and unworthy of who you are and what you do.Stackhouse Jacksonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18245789825317931274noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-19697021092991263522012-01-23T10:25:57.655-08:002012-01-23T10:25:57.655-08:00Hey Cliff,
I enjoy your blog, as well, and as an ...Hey Cliff,<br /><br />I enjoy your blog, as well, and as an outdoors person, find it very useful.<br /><br />To expound on my column quips: Nothing I wrote is intended to deny the difficulty in making pinpoint forecasts in the NW -- or the relative merit of sticing to one once made. In fact, it was an acknowledgment of that very difficult. Nobody I know expects you or anyone else to nail a snow forecast to the inch, 48 hours out. Some of us have lived here long enough to know that's impossible.<br /><br />My comments were mocking the fact that you were, albeit with the usual, (appreciated) caveats, doing exactly that: citing specific snow depths and warning of "record" snowfall -- then turning around, once things changed, and decrying as ignorant hype news accounts that, in fact, were pretty faithful reporting of your own original forecast. Do you honestly expect to put out those kinds of red-alert warnings and not have them reported as predictions -- ones that, given your own status as an expert -- bear significant weight? <br /><br />A quote from baseballer Pedro Guerrero comes to mind: "You guys always quote what I say and not what I mean."<br /><br />BTW, believe it or not, the Times has no daily mandatory meeting to set an agenda, and doesn't expect columnists to conform to one. No one has ever suggested I pursue a particular column subject. For better or worse, I alone make those choices.<br /><br />Cheers and sunny skies,<br />Ron JuddRon juddhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17097159429551722237noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-45100816618689211102012-01-23T10:07:01.237-08:002012-01-23T10:07:01.237-08:00Mr. Mass, honestly until last week I'd never h...Mr. Mass, honestly until last week I'd never heard of you then I caught you sounding like Nostradamus about the weather and thought there is a man for whom weather is a true passion. I came up from California and was so appreciative of the data that you provided. Probably the clearest most concise description of the impending disaster. I heard it on NPR. I don't think you mentioned ice at the time but the snowfall how and where it landed was dead on. I'll say this. I haven't read the articles that I imagine are disparaging of you but people at the bottom routinely try to shoot down the person on top. Thanks again sincerely. <br /><br />Francisco CruzFidel Guevarahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08610496545018503052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-42890854823811220162012-01-23T09:47:46.673-08:002012-01-23T09:47:46.673-08:00Terrible black ice this morning. Would have been ...Terrible black ice this morning. Would have been nice if we'd had more of a heads up. (Not directed at this blog, which is a blog and not an up to the minute weather forecast.)Jenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08219825964164666489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-69389692096004820072012-01-23T09:35:49.120-08:002012-01-23T09:35:49.120-08:00Like the local TV news, the Seattle Times is a jok...Like the local TV news, the Seattle Times is a joke and has been for several years now. As you know Cliff, no good deeds go unpunished. Hopefully you're able to laugh at all this and continue to provide the excellent info myself and numerous others very much appreciate.Chief Platthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14157686734767042921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-63011811190303695192012-01-23T09:29:21.327-08:002012-01-23T09:29:21.327-08:00Forecasters are in a bubble if they don't real...Forecasters are in a bubble if they don't realize that nobody wants to depend on a forecast, especially about snow, then to have it change. As far as I'm concerned, every forecast should be accompanied by a percent chance that the forecast can be trusted. "80% chance of snow in downtown seattle Wednesday, 75% chance that forecast is dependable". Because after all, some of the forecasts are rock solid, some aren't, and why should the public be expected to know the difference?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04135207682478067179noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-39976421984873063222012-01-23T09:19:36.997-08:002012-01-23T09:19:36.997-08:00Hahaha, that Newt Gingrich line was spot on.Hahaha, that Newt Gingrich line was spot on.Lancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14119121675943204095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-35003568210301505652012-01-23T08:43:33.946-08:002012-01-23T08:43:33.946-08:00I have a sense that beyond the science of meteorol...I have a sense that beyond the science of meteorology there is an emotional component to individual interpretation of the data and a financial component to the publishing/broadcasting of the weather.<br /><br />The financial aspect is no secret -- big news sells papers and brings viewers back. Fear sells news, unfortunately.<br /><br />But beyond that I have the impression that meteorologists, given a range of interpretations will dwell on the more exciting meteorological events. Sounds like human nature to me. When the chance to experience an out-of-the-ordinary meteorological event, with the opportunity to show how cool and complicated the science really is, meteorologists emotionally gravitate toward the most interesting possible outcome.<br /><br />Combine that with the financial interests of corporate news, and the formula seems to optimize for prediction of more extreme events than are actually the most probable.<br /><br />To the public, the two motives are hard to disambiguate, and can be simply seen as "crying wolf." Good natured ribbing follows.Bluejackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00818289223163850255noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-74623874541436220462012-01-23T07:58:20.729-08:002012-01-23T07:58:20.729-08:00Oh come on. I've been reading this blog and s...Oh come on. I've been reading this blog and several newspapers and you all got the timing wrong. Headlines don't contain disclaimers, in the Times or in my RSS reader.fletc3herhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17218588976016685854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-44772140586283128772012-01-22T22:40:12.726-08:002012-01-22T22:40:12.726-08:00I'm not siding with anyone, but a few comments...I'm not siding with anyone, but a few comments are correct. The ST took the forecast, NWS, and I bet this blog, on what would occur at a specific time to beat their deadline. <br /><br />So how would you feel, trying to be report the closest thing to truth, only to have it change before the ink has dried. <br /><br />You can hit a couple backspaces and correct it a day later. This has nothing to do with profit or trying to sell papers. <br /><br />Its called humility and accountabilty, on both sides. An over hyped, over predicted storm on Wednesday and a underpredicted storm and late reporting on Thursday.Buddyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13773392812050013355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-85651980843268396882012-01-22T22:04:36.201-08:002012-01-22T22:04:36.201-08:00From my observation of the local media, nobody wor...From my observation of the local media, nobody working for the local paper nor the television news departments has any training in journalism, science, math, social sciences or any other topic save how to yammer and give opinions.Don Carterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15371860848732001580noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-52184444890667373572012-01-22T19:55:25.699-08:002012-01-22T19:55:25.699-08:00Weather is weather - can't see what politics h...Weather is weather - can't see what politics has to do with what Dr Mass is doing in his role as a forecaster. Drop the political commentary and stick to the weather. It affects us all.Old Navyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11232352778487811922noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-37218670901678961612012-01-22T19:52:16.889-08:002012-01-22T19:52:16.889-08:00Cliff, I am a newcomer to your blog. I'm fasc...Cliff, I am a newcomer to your blog. I'm fascinated with the weather due to the fact that I'm a skier and I always want to know when the temps are dropping and the precip is on the way. I would appreciate it if you could explain the graphics that you post a little bit better. For example, what do the colors indicate? Precip, temp, cloud cover? Also, can you help me read the wind charts that you post. The recent wind chart where you talk about "Southeast flow" has red lines throughout as well as little blue flags. Can you decipher what the graphics mean? In addtion, there are numbers on the axes of your graphs without units. It would be nice to know what those numbers mean. Thanks for your diligent, updated posts.snow ninjahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12700631929601965882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-89343442239430639902012-01-22T18:23:45.556-08:002012-01-22T18:23:45.556-08:00Cliff... You missed the whole point!....Could it b...Cliff... You missed the whole point!....Could it be that the ST reporters had a lot of money resting on a wager based on your forecast? How would you like it if the odds kept moving underneath you on a committed wager? ..... :)SkunkBayWeatherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06039356421528366252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-72127035603672177112012-01-22T18:21:03.982-08:002012-01-22T18:21:03.982-08:00I liked Ron Judd's column. I thought it was sp...I liked Ron Judd's column. I thought it was spot on quite a few points. What are we if we can't laugh at ourselves?Seeingredhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15331583186350308695noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-70981547059179679042012-01-22T17:29:59.892-08:002012-01-22T17:29:59.892-08:00Another argument for focusing on the sorry state o...Another argument for focusing on the sorry state of science education. <br /><br />I found your hyperbole a bit intense (sicking their dogs on me; and the Gingrich comparision). It takes away from your professionalism, IMHO.rebeccahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07691646160796842491noreply@blogger.com