tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post4765074312709234246..comments2024-03-18T22:50:29.792-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: The D.C. Snowstorm Forecast FailureCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-64230997501069704602013-03-16T05:53:31.662-07:002013-03-16T05:53:31.662-07:00Thanks ,isther any sight where're some of the ...Thanks ,isther any sight where're some of the uncertainty is published. ? That can be interpreted by a novice ?Arthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03456259466875283137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-956263591075258632013-03-12T10:33:40.131-07:002013-03-12T10:33:40.131-07:00You are dead on with the lack of communication. T...You are dead on with the lack of communication. The uncertainty should have been communicated better. <br /><br />I think we are all in agreement that the models were not great. But let's forget the models. If forecasters would have just followed the system from the midwest they would have realized that it wasn't a particularly cold system. By time the system reached the area and some warmer air was brought in, the temps really weren't close to 32. Let's get the paper and pencil out and get back to doing our own hand analysis to get a good feel for weather.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04440806905961068682noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-142842322673820292013-03-08T18:38:58.236-08:002013-03-08T18:38:58.236-08:00Saw you on NBC Nightly News tonight Cliff! Good g...Saw you on NBC Nightly News tonight Cliff! Good going! Hope you can get some more funding to help fix the problem!Jim Terryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05068564615612575150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-10473021176695557902013-03-08T16:19:30.956-08:002013-03-08T16:19:30.956-08:00Cliff, FYI Ricky Rood referenced your blog today i...Cliff, FYI Ricky Rood referenced your blog today in a post at Capital Weather Gang on the need for better US forecasting:<br /><br />http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/to-be-the-best-in-weather-forecasting-why-europe-is-beating-the-us/2013/03/08/429bfcd0-8806-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394_blog.htmlDouglashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13400304542602805292noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-48292383145021326582013-03-08T14:31:16.859-08:002013-03-08T14:31:16.859-08:00Hi Cliff,
I've just heard today about NASA'...Hi Cliff,<br />I've just heard today about NASA's GEOS-5 model and I don't recall you mentioning it.<br />The output is given with a 0.25 degree resolution and updated twice a day.<br />They say it's experimental, but I was wondering how accurate the model was ?<br />Have you had a look at it ? what do you think ?<br /><br />Forecasts are available here :<br />http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/products/<br /><br />Cheers<br /><br />VictorVictorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12884264942752040044noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-65715300169640533302013-03-08T12:46:46.885-08:002013-03-08T12:46:46.885-08:00Note how the same system was mishandled in Boston,...Note how the same system was mishandled in Boston, where instead of a few inches they [got] up to a few feet. An amazing quasi-stationary "spiral band" [set] up with the low centered way offshore. <br /><br />Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07753888590653927699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-73455871308109969432013-03-08T09:17:10.568-08:002013-03-08T09:17:10.568-08:00I'd like to think that a big forecast failure ...I'd like to think that a big forecast failure that directly impacts DC would bring the funding issue to the forefront with our government. <br /><br />What I expect to happen, though, is we'll hear bombastic rhetoric about how we've wasted money on a weather service that can't even predict a snow storm despite spending millions of dollars, accompanied by calls to gut what current spending exists. Westside guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07171473508596734156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-56875770369124869872013-03-08T09:13:58.357-08:002013-03-08T09:13:58.357-08:00Cliff,
I appreciate your analysis and the posts y...Cliff,<br /><br />I appreciate your analysis and the posts you've provided in recent months on this topic. I have been sharing them throughout and having discussions and debate with colleagues of mine in the operational meteorology field about it too. However, I have to disagree with you on the Euro being the best performer during this storm. <br /><br />In the timeframe that the model is supposed to perform best, it completely blanked New England from this storm. It may have done an ok job with QPF amounts in and around DC, but it did an absolutely abysmal job further up the coast. It also did a horrible job with snow totals in DC proper. The Euro algorithm produced 4-8"+ in DC-Baltimore, with a bullseye west of DC (which it did actually get close to accurate). The Euro IS a superior model to the GFS, and I can't agree with you more that the field needs an infusion of research and funding to get better at this. But sometimes, I think we overstate HOW good the Euro is. Weather modeling in general needs improving...not just the US version of it (which is an argument for why we can and should be doing it better).<br /><br />No model won this storm. No meteorologist won either. This was an impossible storm from the get go...and the end result was one of the across the board worst snow forecasts in the Northeast in recent history (perhaps since March 2001?).Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16475561252497319089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-21960437035915142022013-03-08T08:59:40.906-08:002013-03-08T08:59:40.906-08:00I think this is also partly to be blamed by the NW...<br />I think this is also partly to be blamed by the NWS warning philosophy and deterministic nature of its warning products. At this point, their rules do not really allow a Winter Storm Warning to be issued and say 0 to 10 inches are possible during highly uncertain events. They have to pick warning or no warning snow amounts and go with it.<br /> <br />They are also supposed to warn the public of weather that is a threat to life and property so there's a tendency to error on the side of caution, and over warn, as the organization probably should. However, I think the NWS often forgets that conveying uncertainty is as big or more important than just relaying the message of an impending snowstorm or any other threat. The public loses confidence in the forecast and warnings when false alarms occur and stops taking warnings seriously, rendering the warnings useless. I think confidence lost from false alarms would not be nearly as large if this uncertainty was conveyed. There are ways of doing this through their forecast discussions, weather story graphics and youtube briefings, but I think this information can sometimes either be lost in all the information available or it’s simply not conveyed in their warnings, weather stories and youtube videos as the office chooses to focus on the impending doom and getting the warning out. Admittedly, how this uncertainty is handled is somewhat office to office dependent, and probably for that matter, forecaster to forecaster dependent. <br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08176349778141381548noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-33450411929278456392013-03-08T07:44:22.126-08:002013-03-08T07:44:22.126-08:00Cliff's implicit claim is that bigger computer...Cliff's implicit claim is that bigger computers, from running higher precision calculations, would have smaller uncertainties and therefore be closer to the right answer.<br /><br />It would help to either explicitly show the snow prediction and its uncertainty from the superior European calculations or state that claiming an improvement is just a guess, albeit a reasonable one.<br /><br />The call for public pronouncement of uncertainty is a tough issue. Public understanding of and decision-maker based on uncertainties is not good - most emergency managers suggest telling people what to do rather than asking people to weigh uncertainty.John Vidalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09871768524749705799noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-73074429805421863092013-03-08T07:23:03.729-08:002013-03-08T07:23:03.729-08:00Reading C.M. Reese comments, again, the need for a...Reading C.M. Reese comments, again, the need for a team and real-time forecasting. Superhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06208358506896071732noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-10083349128803701712013-03-08T07:22:01.652-08:002013-03-08T07:22:01.652-08:00Epic forecast failure, fully agreed! But the DC a...Epic forecast failure, fully agreed! But the DC area still has something we don't - an active, frequently updated weather fanatics' site. The Capital Weather Gang's (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang) forecast also failed, BUT, unlike around here where you might wait hours for an update, they had real-time updating that captured the storm under performing and kept adjusting the forecasts. That frequency of reporting and the latest data (even if the data and supporting technology needs to be better) carries an enormous value. As of yet, we have nothing comparable out here (which is sorely missed during our own on the edge snow events). As much as I love this blog, you need a team to provide the above. :(Superhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06208358506896071732noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-65778768030342020112013-03-08T07:05:03.398-08:002013-03-08T07:05:03.398-08:00I'm not sure I follow your prescription that &...I'm not sure I follow your prescription that "with a little investment we can fix this." <br /><br />You outline a failure of communication, then suggest better computers are the answer? <br /><br />True, better computers could reduce the uncertainty, but the failure here was not that uncertainty existed, but that, as you admitted, neither meteorologists nor the media communicated that uncertainty to the general public. <br /><br />Both industries kept assuring us this *was* happening. <br /><br />Better computers won't improve communication methods, and uncertainty will always exist. I'd suggest looking more at the way both industries handled the knowledge they had for improvements before calling for additional resources that seem just as likely to be poorly utilized.CRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13482451932818529047noreply@blogger.com