tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post555368136104529365..comments2024-03-28T23:07:35.632-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Fukushima Radiation and Infant Mortality in the NW? No way.Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-56780006608269313712014-06-08T10:47:45.443-07:002014-06-08T10:47:45.443-07:00There is a wonderful out of print book "The B...There is a wonderful out of print book "The Biomedical Bestiary" that explains in simple terms, many of the most common statistical errors made even by serious researchers. Among them are items like the example in this blog. Many of the others like "measurable, but not meaningful" where something indeed causes a doubling of the incidence, but the incidence is 1 in 2,000,000 so for all practical purposes is 1 in 1,000,000 any different? Or applying a population-based measure to an individual (BMI is the perfect example - I would have to lose 100% of my body fat and 10Lbs of lean muscle mass just to make the top end of normal). These same errors can be applied to weather statistics as well as medical statistics, so I don't find this off base at all. panzrwagnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16029535604401818537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-8167509124547285512013-01-24T20:38:48.881-08:002013-01-24T20:38:48.881-08:00Do you have time to do an update on this post? Was...Do you have time to do an update on this post? Was there any longer-term effect of the Fukushima Radiation? Do we have any more data?<br /><br />Thanks!Joe Goldberghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12662914642971409296noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-64814603382085832712011-07-05T23:41:33.473-07:002011-07-05T23:41:33.473-07:00The province of British Columbia today announced t...The province of British Columbia today announced that infant mortality for the first six months of 2011 exceeded the infant mortality for all of 2010.<br /><br />Officials attribute the infant mortality spike to "poor parent training."<br /><br />In the CBC story on the announcement, no mention was made of Fukushima.Jan Steinmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11899788309779228244noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-87041319243737091062011-06-20T16:35:20.669-07:002011-06-20T16:35:20.669-07:00Cliff this is great. Do you know about Arnie Gunde...Cliff this is great. Do you know about Arnie Gundersen's claim that radioactive car air filters have been identified in Tokyo and Seattle? He seems to be the only source of this data.BlArthurHuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09298660883025641858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-41757915937749907132011-06-20T16:34:11.489-07:002011-06-20T16:34:11.489-07:00Cliff, thanks for stepping up to the plate on this...Cliff, thanks for stepping up to the plate on this infant birth thing. Do you know that Arnie Gunderson claim that people in Tokyo and Seattle have found contaminated car air filters that have caught "hot particles"?? Nobody else is presenting evidence of this.BlArthurHuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09298660883025641858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-47630073973850216722011-06-20T14:36:50.143-07:002011-06-20T14:36:50.143-07:00The complete lack of transparency on the part of T...The complete lack of transparency on the part of Tepco and the Japanese government is responsible for the creation of conspiracy theories. However, to say that the mainstream media did not pick up this story because it has no merit is false. The mainstream is not covering Fukushima - and anyone following this disaster closely knows that. Almost all information after March has come from foreign news sources.judehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17855661570505797490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-22047402127571383332011-06-20T14:33:23.424-07:002011-06-20T14:33:23.424-07:00The comment that the mainstream media did not pick...The comment that the mainstream media did not pick up on this story is meaningless because the mainstream media have not been covering Fukushima at all. The only recent sources of information have come from abroad. So, it is easy to see how conspiracy theories of all kinds could get started. The Japanese are doing the world a disservice by their lack of transparency.judehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17855661570505797490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-57370882172083722522011-06-20T13:04:16.656-07:002011-06-20T13:04:16.656-07:00Liars Figure and Figures LieLiars Figure and Figures LieMichael Winterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17883172316466769388noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-23801930734775302572011-06-20T09:52:14.012-07:002011-06-20T09:52:14.012-07:00In high school, good math students usually get cal...In high school, good math students usually get calculus in their senior year. Incidents like this make me think a year of statistics would be more useful.<br /><br />Students who end up in science or engineering will need both. But just to understand the news, even non-scientists should have some statistics.Patrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16260807460417787614noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-14473965031377206142011-06-19T23:31:37.178-07:002011-06-19T23:31:37.178-07:00I'd place the blame slightly differently, on t...I'd place the blame slightly differently, on the scientists that should be shouting this down en masse as Cliff did in his blog.<br /><br />Let's face it, most of the public cannot assess statistical significance and interpretation of time series, and rely on scientists for the right answer. News media should rely on scientists of proven reliability, and withdraw wrong reports, rather than play up nonsense.<br /><br />Too bad for nuclear energy that the public is very bad at evaluating very small risks. Although it is also too bad for engineers that they assigned a small risk to the Japanese reactors. Oops, that was mainly us seismologists who didn't include M9 earthquakes in our forecast for that region!John Vidalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09871768524749705799noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-81356349966016034062011-06-19T23:00:01.866-07:002011-06-19T23:00:01.866-07:00Thank you for the high dose of sanity and clarity....Thank you for the high dose of sanity and clarity. Much appreciated.Tif Otterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17944539463446243705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-52191073597863871142011-06-19T22:50:08.026-07:002011-06-19T22:50:08.026-07:00It never ceases to amaze me when I see doctors pub...It never ceases to amaze me when I see doctors publish studies asserting some sort of statistical significance in their results. The big issue here is the sampling size is much too small to be of any real significance. Certainly, you can get by with small sample sizes for legitimate studies, but that assumes you have good random populations of data where other factors are controlled-- obviously this is not the case here. It is probably best for doctors to let professional statisticians analyze the data.SeattleLattehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04250119183743115874noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-22812216691134107682011-06-19T21:13:35.838-07:002011-06-19T21:13:35.838-07:00Oh this makes my head hurt. Even with my limited k...Oh this makes my head hurt. Even with my limited knowledge of the effects of radiation I know that the tiny amount of radiation that may be drifting over from Fukishima would only effect us over a long period of time with continuous exposure. And even at the levels we're exposed to the reality of that right now is slim. And I only have the most basic scientific education. It worries me the overall lack of education in this country.<br /><br />This helps me cope though: http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/wiredscience/2011/06/Screen-shot-2011-06-03-at-9.51.17-AM1.pngUrbancowgrrlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15860022294549771879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-80026545619030025962011-06-19T20:28:42.024-07:002011-06-19T20:28:42.024-07:00Cliff,
I am disappointed that you have spent a blo...Cliff,<br />I am disappointed that you have spent a blog discounting a rather ridiculous fall out scenario rather than providing the sort of weather information I have come to expect from your blog. I am concerned about having a nuke melt down upwind of my family and I would have much preferred info on the location of the jet stream and the amount of radiation measured at the monitoring sites in the PNW or any other relevant information that doesn't get covered in the mainstream media. I don't want to be reassured or frightened; simply better informed. <br />Thanks for the blog.<br />Bly<br />NOP, WABlyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09019030722238396467noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-13470636784794341812011-06-19T15:40:04.066-07:002011-06-19T15:40:04.066-07:00I'm glad that there are responsible scientists...I'm glad that there are responsible scientists around who will point out errors like this. <br /><br />I think we need to consider an addition to mandatory high school curriculum that will teach kids how to be more savvy about information and statistics they see online. We expect kids to use computers for everything, but we provide them with very little formal instruction on how to tell a good Web source from a bad one. <br /><br />The "hive mind" is a wonderful thing...but there are some cases where misinformation is more than just an irritation. Sometimes it can be downright dangerous.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-36969709973901740812011-06-19T14:39:31.258-07:002011-06-19T14:39:31.258-07:00Looks to me like yet another example of waaaaay to...Looks to me like yet another example of waaaaay too many people in the U.S. of A. having far too little education, understanding and knowledge about science, statistics and critical thinking. As always, Cliff thanks so much for clarity and firmness.Anne Niles Davenporthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01492027648696799351noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-72422335981522286712011-06-19T10:51:14.500-07:002011-06-19T10:51:14.500-07:00Thank you, thank you for covering this! It's i...Thank you, thank you for covering this! It's infuriating that some in the media will repeat whatever drivel sounds exciting, and depressing that so many people fall for it. It's super nice to see a scientist like you making all the same points that I did.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-51648791286291005552011-06-19T06:31:13.781-07:002011-06-19T06:31:13.781-07:00Infant mortality in the US is highly correlated wi...Infant mortality in the US is highly correlated with poverty, with is correlated with race. http://www.statehealthfacts.org/Fixed Carbonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06321707907871138659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-88894007195575140062011-06-18T23:12:09.727-07:002011-06-18T23:12:09.727-07:00Thanks Dr. Mass! I was so worried. You should co...Thanks Dr. Mass! I was so worried. You should consider writing your own <a href="http://xkcd.com/552/" rel="nofollow">comic strip</a> as part of your science outreach efforts.MarcIhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15533535234351544254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-12479640305726867942011-06-18T23:07:31.224-07:002011-06-18T23:07:31.224-07:00Cliff, it makes no sense on a biological level eit...Cliff, it makes no sense on a biological level either. Fetuses in the first trimester are most susceptible. These infants would likely have been in the last trimester of residence in the womb. It is during the first trimester that most cell types are differentiating, and thus the susceptibility is if one of those cells is damaged due to an external event, there is a greater likelihood the defect from cell division of the damaged cell will exist in the newborn, and will exist in a far greater number of cells. Conversely if the damage occurs in the third trimester or after birth, there will be fewer cell divisions of the cell, and thus less expressed damage.<br /><br />Ideally to test whether there was an effect, one would examine at least a year of prior data to look for the variability and compare the data swing observed to that. But even that would be inconclusive as there are no dose-response relationships to show that in areas where higher doses were received, the mortality was higher.Dennishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15192432738490028360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-44869950384623245022011-06-18T22:06:18.570-07:002011-06-18T22:06:18.570-07:00This post reminds me of a book that my dad had whe...This post reminds me of a book that my dad had when i was growing up "how to lie with statistics" http://www.amazon.com/How-Lie-Statistics-Darrell-Huff/dp/0393310728#_<br />I saw this information earlier this week and remembered your post about the weather patterns/ radiation levels after the event and quickly dismissed it.Runs with scissorshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05273092869319521655noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-90498776319711192362011-06-18T21:47:59.522-07:002011-06-18T21:47:59.522-07:00So what you're saying is that low infant morta...So what you're saying is that low infant mortality rates cause nuclear disasters?Toddhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12939858270361739816noreply@blogger.com