tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post6209323267585825052..comments2024-03-18T22:50:29.792-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: When Did Irene Stop Being a Hurricane?Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger76125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-66025368669643321092011-10-14T04:47:32.987-07:002011-10-14T04:47:32.987-07:00The other half was over increasingly cool water. ...The other half was over increasingly cool water. This system was toast. But as a tropical storm weakens and "goes extratropical" there is a tendency for the precipitation to swing to the W an NW of the storm. That is exactly what happened . The big threat was flooding, not winds.<a href="http://cnttech.org/cnttech.org/" rel="nofollow">cnttech.org/</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-4125765508856101682011-09-04T23:58:11.967-07:002011-09-04T23:58:11.967-07:00Really i appreciate the effort you made to share t...Really i appreciate the effort you made to share the knowledge.The topic here i found was really effective to the topic which i was researching for a long time.raj sharmahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13918116413398932256noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-88532271190675318982011-09-01T23:07:27.123-07:002011-09-01T23:07:27.123-07:00I have lived in eastern NC for over 20 years and I...I have lived in eastern NC for over 20 years and I've been through many hurricane seasons here. The thing about a hurricane is, even though you can track them for days or even weeks ahead of landfall, they still remain unpredictable in the end. And you never know just what the outcome will be, regardless of wind speed. Some bring intense flooding (the cumulative effects of Dennis and Floyd). Some swing randomly inland and take out Charlotte (Hugo). Irene caused massive flooding along the Pamlico, and more downed trees than most old-timers around here have seen in their lifetimes. Entire houses and roadways were washed away. Schools are closed indefinitely. People are suffering. The point is, the media should hype it up. You should be overly prepared. You should raid your local stores for every scrap of anything you think might be useful to you if you find yourself stranded with no power or running water for days on end. I'm so tired of hearing about how Irene was overblown in the media, they just used it for a ratings ploy, everyone overreacted, blah blah blah. It could have easily remained a Cat 2 or 3. The worst part is, articles like this will make people less likely to prepare in the future, which could lead to further loss of life and property. I invite to you to take a trip to Beaufort County, NC. You'll see the worst a hurricane has to offer.catkinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02055688634205746367noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-9924473816209022482011-09-01T18:57:42.969-07:002011-09-01T18:57:42.969-07:00Wade, you are wrong.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/...Wade, you are wrong.<br /><br /><br />http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/09/01/tropical-storm-irene/#more-46492Patrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02403866949454492748noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-7425179516732289372011-09-01T11:10:26.323-07:002011-09-01T11:10:26.323-07:00What a crock. Let's start with wind speeds. Ob...What a crock. Let's start with wind speeds. Obviously the strongest winds would be on the Eastern side of the storm, especially in the NE quadrant. Not on the Western side that was onshore. Just because the winds on land may not have been sustained at hurricane force doesn't mean there weren't winds else where in the system that were. Obviously the NHC recon plane found these winds as the storm remained classified as a hurricane. Also it maintained a central pressure of around 950mb most of the way up the cost, pressures normally associated with a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane. Also did you notice many of the land based weather stations stopped reporting as Irene moved closer? Many of them failed due to power outages, Internet outages, and possibly failures of the stations themselves. There were certainly plenty of hurricane force gusts around, and tornadoes. Also the inland flooding was horrific and historic in many places. Irene stopped being a Hurricane when it was downgraded to a tropical storm by the NHC, not when you feel it should have been based on wind speed readings taken by various stations. When Katrina hit it was hard to find stations reporting sustain hurricane forced winds, it almost always seems that way when hurricanes make landfall. Those types of winds can be elusive over land, or the weather stations fail, etc.Wade Fulphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06992489857007970589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-46776602850024947732011-09-01T08:43:18.562-07:002011-09-01T08:43:18.562-07:00Given that you yourself posted that hurricane forc...Given that you yourself posted that hurricane force is more difficult to predict than direction (or the predictions have not improved) I am very sorry to hear you complaining about whether those in the path of Irene should have been told not to do things like shut NYC down. I live in Rhode Island and was very glad we were prepared for the worst. In fact hundreds of trees and limbs came down in our neighborhood,we were without power for 58 hours, some are still without power and water because many have their own wells. I heard about others whose plywood shutters blew off and saidon the radio, they really were not prepared for even the force of wind we got. I read your blog because I lived in Seattle last year for six months. But this time I believe the tone of your blog feeds into the annoying wave of all the others who think they know better than someone else about this hurrican, usually those less well informed. By the way I am an oceanographer at URI.ctenophorehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04609128970812258840noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-28840195137055076462011-08-31T21:03:21.138-07:002011-08-31T21:03:21.138-07:00Interesting thoughts:
A couple of possible contri...Interesting thoughts:<br /><br />A couple of possible contributors to the confusion - Hurricane Katrina was huge in diameter miles, and definitely a hurricane before landfall - the resulting storm surge was devastating - more so than the wind. <br /><br />Hurricane Andrew accelerated to Cat 5 just before landfall just south of Miami.<br /><br />??? Allison (Houston, many years ago)made landfall as a tropical storm, but dumped huge amounts of water on Houston - resulting in major damage.<br /><br />Why did New York shut down? Because of the threat of storm surge water damage to underground electrical, transportation systems, hospitals, plus accelerated velocity of the winds between tall buildings.<br /><br />Perhaps the threat of damage was too close to call with a large tropical system coming in, and they decided to err on the side of caution where infrastructure and hospital patients were concerned. Maybe because everyone heeded the warnings, we had no one out in harm's way. <br /><br />We all remember that Tropical Storm Allison disabled a hospital with critically ill patients needing emergency transport - a crisis.<br /><br />In view of the severe flood damages in 13 states and 45 fatalities, whether or not Irene was a hurricane while slamming into the East Coast seems to me to be less of a question to ask. The real question is - at what point do we tell people to risk staying home to wait it out, given the unpredictable nature of tropical systems?lauriflutehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16963918855430201324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-9544643854064183692011-08-31T12:26:31.444-07:002011-08-31T12:26:31.444-07:00Getting back to reality, Jeff Masters today posts ...Getting back to reality, Jeff Masters today posts some remarkable insights on intensity forecasting, the cost/benefit of running the NHC. <br /><br />Well worth a read:<br /><br /><a href="http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1910" rel="nofollow">Grading the forecasts for Irene</a><br /><br />One of the things Masters mentions is the remarkably high cost per mile for evacuation as opposed to the relatively tiny cost of forecasting. Just a little bit of money spent on forecasting avoids vast sums wasted on needless evacuations. <br /><br />As now planned, "...the current proposed budget from the House of Representatives mandates a $400 million cut for NOAA, and the NOAA Hurricane Hunters are slated to have their budget cut by 40%, from $29 million to $17 million per year. If these cuts materialize, the ability of the NOAA Hurricane Hunters to continue to aid improvements in hurricane forecasting will be seriously impacted."<br /><br />Ouch, really. I'm trying but failing to see the parsimony in those cuts.dbostromhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17688448471618219440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-32291723272794004872011-08-31T09:49:52.012-07:002011-08-31T09:49:52.012-07:00Hair Bob, data is one thing, speculation is anothe...Hair Bob, data is one thing, speculation is another. Tharn suggests that Obama guided NHC's public statements, meaning that NHC's press office would be the exposed point of a plan formed by Obama, working within NHC. When were the instructions issued? Prior to the North Carolina crossing? Afterwards? <br /><br />Tharn: <i>Why was the NHC trotting a hurricane out if it wasn't a hurricane? That's easy. Because Obama...</i><br /><br />Ok, so -when- Obama, and -how- Obama? How exactly did this mechanism work, in detail?<br /><br />At a certain point we have to conclude that it's impossible to argue with somebody's emotions and imagination, I'll grant you that. This idea that NHC was parroting Obama's wishes is about 1mm removed from "Birther" fantasies, another intractable mental trap.dbostromhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17688448471618219440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-71664164357369669832011-08-31T09:03:16.118-07:002011-08-31T09:03:16.118-07:00The flooding was really the thing. New England ma...The flooding was really the thing. New England may only get a storm that stays organized enough to resemble a hurricane about once every 20 or so hurricane seasons, but when it does the flooding can be catastrophic. (As we have seen in Vermont this week.) I watched the flood gauge on the Farmington River behind my mother's house and bit my fingernails all day Sunday and Monday.<br /><br />If it had been just a bit worse for New York, the flooding could have been extremely dangerous.Jenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08219825964164666489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-52675361038118743062011-08-31T08:33:53.902-07:002011-08-31T08:33:53.902-07:00So, Doug...
Using your reasoning, then, the fact ...So, Doug...<br /><br />Using your reasoning, then, the fact that every one of the reporting stations measuring only tropical storm level winds throughout Irene's passage was part of a massive conspiracy to undermine Dear Leader's apotheosis...?<br /><br />Bozone poisoning indeed.Hair Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18303259947289541669noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-27775877802982641472011-08-31T01:57:59.809-07:002011-08-31T01:57:59.809-07:00Describing Tharm's hypothesis more fully:
-- ...Describing Tharm's hypothesis more fully:<br /><br />-- President thinks to himself, "I sure do need a disaster, because after all things are not bad enough already and I need to take on another very risky challenge, incur more danger to my reputation."<br /><br />-- President communicates with Bill Read, Director of the National Hurricane Center, orders him to ignore any NHC internal analysis, maintain Irene at hurricane status regardless of data.<br /><br />-- Bill Read-- former US Navy officer serving as a meteorologist with the Hurricane Hunters and with a professional meteorology career spanning back to 1977-- obediently communicates the President's wishes to his staff, including analysts several paygrades lower in the NHS hierarchy. <br /><br />-- In a remarkable feat of close-lipped secrecy under scrutiny by a nationwide audience, workers at multiple levels within NHS manage to conceal the actual truth about Irene, convey instead false information.<br /><br />-- As part of the plan of deception, vast quantities of meteorological data are altered, subtly restructured so as to make it -appear- as though a hurricane happened when actually it did not. This work is accomplished on a realtime basis, a stunning feat in itself.<br /><br />-- Astoundingly, not a single staff person from Read on down int the NHS foodchain objects to the behind-the-scenes manipulation. Apparently an entire swathe of NHS personnel spanning nearly the entire organization are deeply corrupt.<br /><br />-- Despite overwhelming odds against it, the perfidious presidential plot succeeds, unlikely those this may seem. <br /><br />Sounds perfectly plausible to me.dbostromhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17688448471618219440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-3011513906946539512011-08-30T19:22:03.109-07:002011-08-30T19:22:03.109-07:00Why was the NHC trotting a hurricane out if it was...Why was the NHC trotting a hurricane out if it wasn't a hurricane? That's easy. Because Obama was desperately hoping for a disaster in the same way that Bush was hoping for WMDs. Bureaucrats always take their queues from the top. If we're lucky, the President won't be able to get away with having FEMA occupy New England for the next 10 years.Tharmshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00498432687399707148noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-69364707168791536382011-08-30T19:18:21.017-07:002011-08-30T19:18:21.017-07:00Given the loss of life, at this point, this storm ...<i>Given the loss of life, at this point, this storm ranks #4 since 1980. Was it over-hyped? Or was the media reporting the wrong things to be concerned about (winds vs. rain/flooding)? </i><br /><br />I don't know about Cliff's view, but I question what is called a hurricane related death. Early on, the second reported death I heard was a guy who had a heart attack while boarding up his windows. A heart attack is not something I'd particularly blame on high winds, rain, lightning, or flood especially prior to those events occurring.Lelandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09531159384688653131noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-43622615603261232072011-08-30T15:51:59.261-07:002011-08-30T15:51:59.261-07:00I love how people can figure out how to grind eith...I love how people can figure out how to grind either their Tea Party or Green political axes on a weather thread. Neither axe makes much sense, unsurprisingly.station44025https://www.blogger.com/profile/05459483982301107020noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-82262091006517613132011-08-30T15:12:07.877-07:002011-08-30T15:12:07.877-07:00This thread went pretty crazy. That story that JG...This thread went pretty crazy. That story that JG highlighted from Fox News back in the beginning of the thread is worth commenting on. I haven't read a more stupid article in a long time. Ridiculous.C.P.O.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16880429004171251097noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-21610053698049524772011-08-30T15:00:53.464-07:002011-08-30T15:00:53.464-07:00Mrs Whatsit said:
"It's called autumn.&q...Mrs Whatsit said:<br /><br /><i>"It's called autumn."</i><br /><br />Good job. Now Gail and her friends can spread the alarm about <i><b>Hemiglobal Autumning!</b></i> ;^}barack bohicahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15489239186186122928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-83608564563644477642011-08-30T14:34:37.427-07:002011-08-30T14:34:37.427-07:00I don't get it. There was substantial propert...I don't get it. There was substantial property damage and 40 or so deaths. What fractional changes at any moment for the worse would have made the preparation and heads up unnecessary? <br /><br />Perhaps we should convert to a Bangladesh style weather service and civil preparation methodology.ZenBonobohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14526492973307982815noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-72277908863602035052011-08-30T14:19:57.971-07:002011-08-30T14:19:57.971-07:00The maximum wind speeds anywhere in the storm meas...The maximum wind speeds anywhere in the storm measured over a 1-minute period determines the classification.<br /><br />Even if a small section of the storm (usually near eastern side of the eye) measures winds over 73mph for 60 seconds or more, the storm is a hurricane. Even if the parts that actually made landfall only had tropical storm wind speeds.<br /><br />So yes, Irene was correctly classified as a Category 1 hurricane when it made its final landfall.<br /><br />Flooding from the storm surge is the most devastating effects of any hurricane. High winds may look impressive on video, but the storm surge is what you need to worry about.<br /><br />Since Irene was such a large storm, even if it were "only" a tropical storm, it still would have had a similar effect on the areas hit hardest.Justin Frankshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00348903434010471063noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-12400630339898485432011-08-30T13:23:12.630-07:002011-08-30T13:23:12.630-07:00Wind-wise, Irene didn't seem significantly dif...Wind-wise, Irene didn't seem significantly different than the usual run of tropical storms or 'Noreasters we get here in South Jersey in a year. I have yet to have a tree downed by wind, on my 26 acre tree farm... then again, it's mostly oak, poplar, maple and beech. No pines. <br /><br />On the other hand, we had the worst power outages I've seen in the area, period. It took Atlantic City Electric 41 hours to get my power back on. And this was more rain than usual, on top of 10" from the previous week-and-a-half, so I had cellar flooding for the first time, thanks to the extra water and lack of power for the sump. <br /><br />And yeah, more trees down in the general area than I've seen before. I passed an area this morning that had had several trees downed, and the road is still closed, two full days after the storm left.hazydavehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14134492461664768781noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-50323470515900880552011-08-30T13:16:35.804-07:002011-08-30T13:16:35.804-07:00wattsupwiththat.com said...
Congrats on being...<i>wattsupwiththat.com said...<br /><br /> Congrats on being slashdotted! I've made you our quote of the week.</i><br /><br />Flattery of dubious provenance. Cliff is inadvertently conscripted into the Wattsian army, joining such seasoned volunteer veterans as Steven Goddard, Joe Bastardi. <br /><br />Proof once more that bad things can happen to good people and no good deed goes unpunished :-)dbostromhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17688448471618219440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-56646581537045999632011-08-30T12:28:12.208-07:002011-08-30T12:28:12.208-07:00Cliff,
It seems to me that when you read the NHC f...Cliff,<br />It seems to me that when you read the NHC forecast discussions for tropical cyclones, they generally err on the side of caution and lag behind the actual intensity when they downgrade a storm, whether it is making landfall or not. They want to make sure it is not going to restrengthen. This was exactly the case with Irene, where they were expecting an eyewall replacement cycle and associated rapid intensification to occur as she made landfall. The secondary eyewall never contracted though, so winds remained weaker than expected. They were also very careful in every discussion and public advisory to mention that whether Irene was a cat 1 or a tropical storm, preparations should be made regardless because of the immense size of the storm - the effects were not going to be much different.<br /><br />- BonnieAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17063140914060603040noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-49053379938747165072011-08-30T11:51:28.011-07:002011-08-30T11:51:28.011-07:00Nate Silver, using available and preliminary damag...Nate Silver, using available and preliminary damage information, finds that this storm has created damage equal to a category 3 hurricane. Those contrarians who are trying to say this was not a major and dangerous storm are making themselves look poorly. Serious flooding is still going on.RLLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13850927095383579725noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-65827939661677544252011-08-30T11:38:50.961-07:002011-08-30T11:38:50.961-07:00Cliff: I like this post, as it relates to how we d...Cliff: I like this post, as it relates to how we define storms. A good article to look at, however, in relation to the so called media hype is over at fivethirtyeight.com:<br /><br />http://j.mp/qSy3cH<br /><br />Given the loss of life, at this point, this storm ranks #4 since 1980. Was it over-hyped? Or was the media reporting the wrong things to be concerned about (winds vs. rain/flooding)? <br /><br />Thanks-Seanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00403735767601246376noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-23039427297603699532011-08-30T11:27:26.258-07:002011-08-30T11:27:26.258-07:00Are you suggesting, as Monday morning quarterback,...Are you suggesting, as Monday morning quarterback, that the warnings along the coast of New England should have been Tropical Storm Warnings instead of Hurricane Warnings? <br /><br />Further to the point about the bigger threat being flooding and not wind, what was the rationale for Brown/Franklin of the NHC who authored Irene Discussion 30 when they stated: <br /><br />"More so than with most storms...the winds with Irene increase sharply with height above the surface."? More so than most "storms"? What kind of storms? Tropical storms? Extratropical storms? They went on to scare people in Manhattan by saying, "As Irene moves through areas with high-rise structures...these structures will experience winds significantly stronger than indicated by the advisory intensity. Winds at the 30-story level will likely be 20 percent higher than at the surface...and winds 80-100 stories up could be about 30 percent higher than at the surface."<br /><br />Wow! So if NHC was treating Irene as a Hurricane (with Hurricane Warnings indicating a Hurricane was imminent), then those city skyscrapers and high rise condos must have been jeopardy and the wind stress must have surely knocked out quite a few windows right? The 30 story high rise concern doesn't really compute (and the 80 to 100 story) is marginal, based on [Anthes 1982] vertical wind profile of a typical hurricane. Oh wait a minute, Anthes was referring to a "hurricane", what Mass has argued is that we had a Tropical Storm (which probably reduces the need even further for Brown/Franklin to cackle about high rises which of course the doodads at The Weather Channel at one point simply aped ("rip and read") without questioning or giving this any critical thought or providing the audience with any further explanation. <br /><br />It is also disappointing to read blog posts from venerable TV meteorologists and AMS Fellows like Tom Skilling of Chicago who posted (last Friday) comments which implied something more for people to worry about more (how probable was the Gulf Stream influence?) ...<br /><br />http://blog.chicagoweathercenter.com/2011/08/mammoth-hurricane-irene-bearing-down-on-nations-most-densely-populated-region-washington-philadelphi.html<br /><br />> Category 3 Hurricane Irene,<br />> with 115 mph sustained winds<br />> late Thursday, could grow<br />> even stronger after its trek<br />> across the warm Gulf Stream<br />> Friday.<br /><br />Which model / ensemble was cherry picked for such a (probable?) outcome.edvhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13848642496920886946noreply@blogger.com