tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post6824299312309020039..comments2024-03-28T10:16:44.231-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: El Nino, Snow, and the OlympicsCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-51164484340104502222010-01-22T10:19:36.282-08:002010-01-22T10:19:36.282-08:00Not even a mention of climate change? Not saying t...Not even a mention of climate change? Not saying this event is correlated, but seems odd to ignore the question.<br /><br />(I am not making this up: the comment form's word verification is "sking". High blogging comedy.)TheGreenMileshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15774630689123316690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-59009088150304687242010-01-15T21:55:19.928-08:002010-01-15T21:55:19.928-08:00A couple of El Nino questions
Most of the discuss...A couple of El Nino questions<br /><br />Most of the discussion of El Nino is about winter/spring effects. How long does El Nino last? Are their late spring / summer effects? If so what are they?<br /><br />Is there any information on year to year cycles between normal, El Nino and La Nina years? Is there a pattern or cycle?<br /><br /><br /><br />VinceUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09168858761557872337noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-23001692863930487112010-01-15T15:32:01.549-08:002010-01-15T15:32:01.549-08:00This is what they are predicting south of us. I...This is what they are predicting south of us. I'll be down there next week. Oh boy......:<br />From NASA: HUNKER DOWN <br /><br />This is what the emergency response community is saying: <br /><br />Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern Pacific,<br />and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our weather. The<br />strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over the open water,<br />but the persistent block had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that<br />the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt jet is barreling towards us.<br />Multiple large and powerful storm systems are expected to slam into CA from<br />the west and northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely<br />powerful jet stream directly into the state. The jet will itself provide<br />tremendous dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances<br />right at the state and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source.<br />The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so these<br />storms will be quite cold, at least initially. Very heavy rainfall and<br />strong to potentially very strong winds will impact the lower elevations<br />beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least the following Sunday.<br />This will be the case for the entire state, from (and south of) the Mexican<br />border all the way up to Oregon. Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will be<br />all snow, and since temperatures will be unusually cold for a precipitation<br />event of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to<br />occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra<br />after it's all said and done. But there's a big and rather threatening<br />caveat to that (discussed below).Individual storm events are going to be<br />hard to time for at least few more days, since this jet is just about as<br />powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and the<br />following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in excess<br />of 3-4 inches. That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas.<br />Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20<br />inches in orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at<br />lower elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas. <br /><br />This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are<br />virtually unanimous in "reloading" the powerful jet stream and forming an<br />additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next<br />Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential<br />for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now<br />shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire<br />state. Normally, such as scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at<br />best. Since the models are in such truly remarkable agreement, however, and<br />because of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, it's worth<br />mentioning now. Since there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow<br />(even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a<br />moderately warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This<br />situation will have to monitored closely. Even if the tropical connection<br />does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be<br />sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of dry<br />antecedent conditions).Kenna Wickmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02802821050975830973noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-30124937191287549182010-01-15T07:33:19.893-08:002010-01-15T07:33:19.893-08:00As someone who has sat through countless Powerpoin...As someone who has sat through countless Powerpoint technical presentations over the years (some --maybe most -- of them real yawners and far too long), I have a great appreciation for a single information graphic that can explain much of the subject in one glance. From that point forward, the reader or listener can then focus on what the writer or presenter has to say to fill in the blanks. Instead of trying to read a list of bullet points or paragraphs of text while the presenter is talking.<br /><br />The 'atmospheric river' graphic <i>and</i> the accompanying title is such a strong graphic. They work in tandem - the title puts the subject in terms of a terrific and familiar analogy. One not necessarily obvious if it wasn't mentioned. The graphic tells the rest of the story - what, where, why and when.<br /><br />Nice work. Thanks for showing. I like to collect these sorts of examples to think about how to improve my own work.<br /><br />Cheers.dbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18099698017813709699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-20284936217852289552010-01-14T11:08:08.374-08:002010-01-14T11:08:08.374-08:00Thought I'd also point out that the CPC foreca...Thought I'd also point out that the CPC forecast ONLY for the month of January (and made two weeks after the 3-month one that Cliff shows) is even more striking in its prediction of above normal temps and below normal precip for western WA. Above normal temps so far? Yes. Below normal precip? No.<br /><br />Hey Cliff (or anyone who knows): I note that we seem to be on a 15-day streak of high temps (and lows, for that matter) above that date's average at Seatac. Are we near any consecutive day record for above average maximums for this time of year?Lindseyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06672849934921996050noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-4168850275932534002010-01-14T10:15:41.992-08:002010-01-14T10:15:41.992-08:00Putting the snow (or lack thereof) issues aside fo...Putting the snow (or lack thereof) issues aside for the moment, I note that Cliff says "El Ninos are associated with above normal temperatures and below normal precip after January 1," whereas I had assumed that such conditions would usually happen in El Nino Decembers as well. But we're well above normal this January for precip in any case, so the J-F-M CPC forecast graphic (made nearly a month ago) Cliff shows has NOT (yet) been borne out with respect to the precipitation element for western WA. I don't know -- maybe this beats fog and air stagnation advisories; but I do hope the hose does get turned off soon, or at least aimed in another direction (as perhaps Josh is suggesting) for awhile.Lindseyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06672849934921996050noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-49635380881542118132010-01-14T07:31:48.905-08:002010-01-14T07:31:48.905-08:00Seems like SoCAL will finally get in on the el nin...Seems like SoCAL will finally get in on the el nino express next week. That has been one of the missing ingredients to make us feel secure that we got climate figured out. Except one might argue by looking at the Climate Impacts group historical El Nino maps <br /><br />http://cses.washington.edu/cig/maps/index.shtml<br /><br />Precipitation in % and soil moisture doesn't match up here in the NW corner as of today. I wonder on the snowpack anomalies for el nino years if the deficient snow water equivalents are due to lack of falling precipitation or when the snow survey is done it has been disintegrated from to much warm precipitation?Joshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08645629430659310315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-14597664803272635422010-01-14T06:28:07.852-08:002010-01-14T06:28:07.852-08:00Very interesting column Dr Mass, thanks. Will you...Very interesting column Dr Mass, thanks. Will you be presenting at Sand Point in March?Big Wavehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12818648672772663106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-4025793467880817062010-01-13T22:12:34.873-08:002010-01-13T22:12:34.873-08:00I'm going to trademark and coin the phrase San...I'm going to trademark and coin the phrase Santa Clause Express. Its when that moisture plume originates beyond the Hawaiian Islands, but more where Christmas Is. is located.<br /><br />PS. Finally the inversion is broken. First chinook westward wind in months. 46 degrees, warmest since early December.smokejumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05358322512081660205noreply@blogger.com