tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post73434487607832909..comments2024-03-28T23:07:35.632-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: The National Weather Service Selects A New Global Weather Prediction Model: Will It Make the Right Choice?Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-5840544144442323852016-03-13T13:46:03.053-07:002016-03-13T13:46:03.053-07:00Is there a place to ask off topic questions?Is there a place to ask off topic questions?Antinyxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917167018367419273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-52029703384447776032016-03-12T09:05:38.493-08:002016-03-12T09:05:38.493-08:00Dr. Mass: If you haven't already read it, the...Dr. Mass: If you haven't already read it, there's an interesting book by George Dyson called "Turing's Cathedral" which talks about the early days of computing (largely relating to the H-bomb development). It's rather heavy (IMO) on biographical background, but there's a chapter called "Cyclogenesis" which talks about the first attempts at numerical weather prediction in the late 1940's. <br /><br />Thanks for your insights, always a pleasure to readtmoosehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12798734148708720682noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-28103690756293907822016-03-12T02:18:29.721-08:002016-03-12T02:18:29.721-08:00Nostalgic and amusing to read a discussion of the ...Nostalgic and amusing to read a discussion of the advantages of hex grids in modeling; at an analog level, war gamers hit on hex grids as a replacement for rectileinear in the mid-1960s, for similar reasons. Games like chess and Go had made good use of squares; but both are abstract. In attempting to model the real world, a hex grid has proven far more versatile. <br /><br />Even at the computationally low intensities of a board war game, the rectileinear model compares very unfavorably with hexagonal (consider the problem of representing points of sail and wind direction in a naval game-- squares just don't work.)<br /><br />But this begs a further question: in gaming, computers allowed us to move to continuous models for things like naval and air simulations, long ago. Vastly more accurate, if not necessarily more fun. Do any such models for weather and climate? What would be the computational demands of continuous weather model? Huge, no doubt -- but I'd have assumed that someone would have ballparked them.Crocodilianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15691022993691058441noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-51861053791029706452016-03-12T00:01:47.788-08:002016-03-12T00:01:47.788-08:00Merciful heavens, people actually did numerics on ...Merciful heavens, people actually did numerics on a lat/long grid? Elihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05711511939799573430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-14418024256159643052016-03-11T19:39:58.039-08:002016-03-11T19:39:58.039-08:00Researchers have been using MPAS since 2013 - ther...Researchers have been using MPAS since 2013 - there's nothing "hypothetical" about it.Westside guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07171473508596734156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-27526082490822987512016-03-11T13:34:57.742-08:002016-03-11T13:34:57.742-08:00I second Bloggods query (top of page)
What do you...I second Bloggods query (top of page)<br /><br />What do your peers at NWS say, or are they undr a gag order?Bruce Kayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11070247298371179095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-6797531477681176722016-03-11T10:56:07.120-08:002016-03-11T10:56:07.120-08:00Is the computing speed the only argument for the F...Is the computing speed the only argument for the FV3? If it looks likely that NOAA/NWS is leaning that direction, what are the other "pros" that it offers? Cost?Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01976357961501536858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-18983621510507673682016-03-11T10:05:38.246-08:002016-03-11T10:05:38.246-08:00Politics as usual in DC...Politics as usual in DC...Pasadenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01729701699369039441noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-84064550822118621912016-03-11T08:07:58.260-08:002016-03-11T08:07:58.260-08:00If they do choose FV3, is there any possibility of...If they do choose FV3, is there any possibility of the weather community/research institutions pooling resources to continue development of MPAS? This would create some competition and also clearly demonstrate the ongoing frustration with NOAA/NWS.<br /><br />- DouglasDouglashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13400304542602805292noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-30280348823045799042016-03-11T07:22:00.884-08:002016-03-11T07:22:00.884-08:00I was somewhat amused, and horrified, by this blog...I was somewhat amused, and horrified, by this blog. I worked in the oil industry for years, some if it in research. We built 3d earth models used to propagate acoustic and electromagnetic waves. We showed years ago that hexagonal sampling is more efficient that rectilinear. In addition, using models that have a variable sampling grid is more, in some cases, much more, computationally efficient, (fine sampling where you need it, course otherwise). It is painfully clear to me that the MPAS approach is the only sensible one.<br />On the other hand, changing the modeling software to utilize the "new" grid may be costly.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17360282209538079352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-71840510992203331592016-03-11T06:52:55.060-08:002016-03-11T06:52:55.060-08:00Excellent stuff, thanks for bringing this to our a...Excellent stuff, thanks for bringing this to our attention.Michael Snyderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06230219537755848399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-11145263920233721852016-03-11T05:48:15.079-08:002016-03-11T05:48:15.079-08:00It seems to me that the stakes for NOAA/NWS are in...It seems to me that the stakes for NOAA/NWS are incredibly high. Presumably, given its open development model, MPAS will play an important role at other organizations concerned with weather forecasting, including those in the private sector. <br /><br />If that's the case, NOAA/NWS will have nowhere to hide if its new model proves to be consistently inferior. The implications, especially if there's a forecasting failure that results in major property damage or loss of life, seem pretty clear to me.<br /><br /><br /> Foohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03929520923930532337noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-25757087686342655012016-03-10T23:17:04.962-08:002016-03-10T23:17:04.962-08:00Such issues generally have reasonable arguments fr...Such issues generally have reasonable arguments from both sides. What are advantages of the NOAA model?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-84167945152313688082016-03-10T23:12:18.091-08:002016-03-10T23:12:18.091-08:00Both models are hypothetical. Isn't is reasona...Both models are hypothetical. Isn't is reasonable to make predictions THEN decide?BlogGodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09246669184657400155noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-9843001883099343202016-03-10T23:11:47.231-08:002016-03-10T23:11:47.231-08:00ETA on model decision? Certainly has been long ov...ETA on model decision? Certainly has been long overdue. The EMCWF is the primary model of choice by veteran forecasters nowadays although getting higher resolution products takes a bit more searching and cost. The beauty of the NWS is the free access to tons of data to the public. With an upgraded model in the pipeline and the transparent access...it will be a new stage of U.S. weather forecasting.<br /><br />Hope we get there soon. Thanks for the article.sshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03977746201621388689noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-32298645928215657172016-03-10T23:10:34.541-08:002016-03-10T23:10:34.541-08:00I was a debate coach so I must ask you to quantify...I was a debate coach so I must ask you to quantify the other position. If you cannot, it is often because that one has convinced themselves prior in a way beyond approach - in other words, with subjectivityBlogGodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09246669184657400155noreply@blogger.com