tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post7650603025458249758..comments2024-03-18T17:39:59.285-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: The U.S. Has Fallen Behind in Numerical Weather Prediction: Part ICliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger28125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-19855339980698765222012-04-16T01:36:09.929-07:002012-04-16T01:36:09.929-07:00Cliff, this is a very interesting blog. Many Europ...Cliff, this is a very interesting blog. Many European forecasters use NCEP model: it is good and easily available.<br /><br />In one of the comments above, Kate mentioned that the EC model does not have time constraints. This is not entirely true: ECMWF data needs to be delivered on time every single day to the Meteorological Services of the countries that are contributing to its budget. <br /><br />Looking forward to reading your part II<br />thanks again for the interesting post!annahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03303331682656350189noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-80686581945501072602012-04-12T18:43:50.933-07:002012-04-12T18:43:50.933-07:00Excellent read!Excellent read!Darrin Harrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08836171056968263208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-89378026163072170902012-04-11T14:53:17.643-07:002012-04-11T14:53:17.643-07:00Very interesting article!Very interesting article!Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-45831188118738164462012-04-03T09:50:14.493-07:002012-04-03T09:50:14.493-07:00Nice article. Note that although ECMWF doesn't...Nice article. Note that although ECMWF doesn't have the same operational requirements as the other centres, Met Office, JMA and Meteo-France do have roughly the same time constraints as US operational centres, and are all doing very well in comparison. Of course the rankings change whenever a centre gets a new supercomputer or has a major change to its algorithms -- this was seen with the introduction of 4D-Var and then Hybrid-Var at various operational centres.oklabobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02561648629610075231noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-61007847193420112292012-03-30T05:07:17.610-07:002012-03-30T05:07:17.610-07:00Cliff - these are good points butt he systems you...Cliff - these are good points butt he systems you're comparing are not really on a level playing field. You need to include that ECMWF does not have the same level of service requirement as the US NCEP and FNMOC. ECMWF is medium range forecasting and our OPERATIONAL centers have a requirement to push forecasts out before the next Ob window. yes there are issues with not enough computational resources, etc. There are initiatives to leverage the National capability in a more comprehensive way and these efforts should continue to pursue more and new capability.exoceanohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17633561244396549734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-41771746267444257722012-03-28T16:57:23.597-07:002012-03-28T16:57:23.597-07:00Great article. I did my MS at Colorado State and c...Great article. I did my MS at Colorado State and can attest to the great research that's occurring in the US. Sad to see barriers in bringing it to fruition in the operational world.Mikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18393619614928838879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-60062209924720002242012-03-21T20:52:35.904-07:002012-03-21T20:52:35.904-07:00I'm surprised that no one has suggested the ob...I'm surprised that no one has suggested the obvious -- why don't the USA and Canada pool their resources to develop a better model? If Europe can do it, then why not us? The way I see it, the days of America leading the world alone are petty much over, and not much chance of ever coming back. We can either accept that fact and make smart alliances or slowly descend into irrelevance, which is already occurring.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12864850951303580894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-6460936613014531162012-03-21T04:32:11.984-07:002012-03-21T04:32:11.984-07:00@Unknown: you are conflating (whether intentionall...@Unknown: you are conflating (whether intentionally or ignorantly) weather prediction with climate prediction. Climate is a description of the distribution of weather. If you think of it like dice, climate is the shape and values on the dice, whereas weather is the result of any particular dice roll. <b>Both</b> have substantial economic impact (billions of dollars per year).<br /><br />Climate models have shown substantial skill in reproducing climates, but these have no more predictive power over knowing what weather will occur on a particular day in the future than knowing a die has six sides will help you predict which side will be face up after the next roll. Weather prediction, even with perfect models, is inherently limited to a few weeks.<br /><br />As your comment demonstrates, ignorance of this difference has caused great harm to both areas. Climate research is dismissed because people remember that cold weather last week, or that weather forecast that was wrong. Weather forecasting gets cut because people fight against climate change research or think weather forecasting is solved because the climate models are considered good.bubba0077https://www.blogger.com/profile/13475785381688529504noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-72978000861266615742012-03-20T21:54:20.124-07:002012-03-20T21:54:20.124-07:00I keep hearing that computer models already exist ...I keep hearing that computer models already exist that can predict temperatures for the entire planet within a few degrees for decades into the future. Further, our most intelligent and best educated citizens are so confident in the accuracy of these models that they are diligently working to change our entire energy economy and tax structure to alleviate bad effects of the predicted temperatures. Perhaps one can be excused for thinking that we have plenty of computer forecasting technology already and don't need to spend any more money.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18194867861358564423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-40756062817046007432012-03-20T20:15:28.297-07:002012-03-20T20:15:28.297-07:00You see the problem captured by folks like Tony. ...You see the problem captured by folks like Tony. Sorry Tony, but it's an example of the blame game that goes on and on with science funding tossed out. It's those evil unions and the liberal agenda. As another poster already pointed out, we were on top when those unions were more powerful. But history, and science for that matter, does not matter and will not be allowed to change some folks' reality. Science and funding it should not be partisan, but sad to say it has become so. Even for relatively small amounts of $$$, it's hard to keep investment up. See the recent cuts to tsunami warning and education (just a bit relevant to our coast line). Nothing will change until the political log jam of the past 10+ years breaks. Until then it will just be blame, blame, blame, with critical thinking checked at the door.Superhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06208358506896071732noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-48286452752607503292012-03-20T19:10:32.234-07:002012-03-20T19:10:32.234-07:00Great writeup Cliff .. look forward to part II .. ...Great writeup Cliff .. look forward to part II .. domestic short-term NWP forecast skill is strategic for U.S. life and commerce. Therefore, it cannot be outsourced. We must regain leadership in this arena. <br /><br />If the NWS and in this case NCEP had a Board of Directors: heads would have rolled a long time ago; if they had a stock: it would be $ 2.00 a share; if they had a balance sheet: they would be on the brink of extinction/bankruptcy. <br /><br />This is a nearly complete failure against their most fundamental competitive mission. How can anyone explain that away?br549https://www.blogger.com/profile/16268396186814343117noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-721847977050099802012-03-20T11:32:30.718-07:002012-03-20T11:32:30.718-07:00Maybe we should just join the Europeans, and form ...Maybe we should just join the Europeans, and form a global modeling system...they're already ahead of us, it might be more economically efficient (no duplication), and realistically this is a global issue. <br /><br />And, to the guy who said that "big government" and "entrenched unions" are the problem, it should be noted that we had more of that (lots more, in fact) during our golden era of innovation then we do now. Plus, the Europeans aren't exactly anti-union and anti-big government.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12957861892485822360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-82957007477147588282012-03-20T09:42:04.206-07:002012-03-20T09:42:04.206-07:00Cliff, you relate the problem to our K-12 Malaise....Cliff, you relate the problem to our K-12 Malaise. Yes, probably. In both cases, entrenched and often unionized interests prevent disruptive technologies and approaches from catalyzing rapid improvement.<br /><br />My observation is you tend to lean pro-big-government, pro-union, and against the forces that tend to enable innovation. <br /><br />Any chance you'll reconsider your political philosophies to bring the effects closer to your desires?Tonyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01714606824444953203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-91907856445549022412012-03-20T09:27:42.593-07:002012-03-20T09:27:42.593-07:00I believe that the CDAS was a "frozen" m...I believe that the CDAS was a "frozen" model used as a "constant" for the purposes of measuring the others. This is an excellent article and a good companion to one I wrote in 2009 entitled "Exposed: Secrets of Weather Forecasting Models" http://ow.ly/9LIfwWeatherMatrixhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09978007515713264661noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-32877023971374999882012-03-20T09:15:04.373-07:002012-03-20T09:15:04.373-07:00I did hear at the FOS meeting in New Orleans that ...I did hear at the FOS meeting in New Orleans that the new Kalman Filter initialization scheme that NWS is implementing this year (already?) is supposed to boost them to a clear 3rd place, or maybe close to 2nd. Still behind ECMWF. Oh, I see Kate mentioned that upthread.<br /><br />I think <a href="http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/9995" rel="nofollow">this blog post</a> on GOES-15 WV issues says it all. Notice that the ECMWF is about to start using GOES Imager data in their global models. NCEP only uses Sounder data. And I get the feeling that they use it grudgingly.Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08651458516294901531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-28395725240371899242012-03-19T20:16:53.510-07:002012-03-19T20:16:53.510-07:00Thanks very much. Very interesting. Will pass this...Thanks very much. Very interesting. Will pass this link on to our marine weather students.David Burchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13413234790483329339noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-11389084045584439042012-03-19T16:23:04.611-07:002012-03-19T16:23:04.611-07:00This is a tangent, I suppose, but - what is the CD...This is a tangent, I suppose, but - what is the CDAS model that's so significantly worse than the others?Westside guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07171473508596734156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-15089553637238173692012-03-19T14:01:47.582-07:002012-03-19T14:01:47.582-07:00Cliff, as an atmospheric modeler at EMC I first mu...Cliff, as an atmospheric modeler at EMC I first must thank you for bringing this issue to the forefront. I must point out, though, that our lagging behind is not from lack of want but directly from lack of funding, as you pointed out. We have had improvements prepared for years but lack the computing power (money) and man-power (money) to do so.<br /><br />We also can't compete with the European center because they do not have the time constraints that we do...meaning our model output has to be out at a specific time without fail. Also, the ECMWF model only runs twice per day (GFS 4x) and is able to wait for more data to arrive.<br /><br />I work with many talented, hardworking individuals at EMC who constantly have to deal with folks asking them why we aren't better when we know why...money. The government in this country yells at the NWS when forecasts aren't perfect but they do not understand that cutting our budgets is part of the problem, if not the main reason for the problem.<br /><br />Lastly, we try to work with outside agencies but are stopped from doing so, again, because of budget constraints. I was recently barred from a project because those asking for the work didn't have money to fund it. If the US government put as much money into NOAA and the NWS as the European governments do we could compete as we used to.<br /><br />FYI, the Hybrid EnKF data assimilation system will be operational next month and looks very promising! :-D<br /><br />Again, thank you very much for bringing this unfortunate issue to light but please know that the problem is at the top, not at the bottom where all of the work is actually done.<br /><br />P.S. we at NCEP are very much looking forward to our new building (coming this summer!), which is 10 years overdue because of government funding. There it is again...funding issues. :-(Katehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08493017261041660367noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-63853381925867648812012-03-19T12:24:50.554-07:002012-03-19T12:24:50.554-07:00So if computation power is an issue, why not use t...So if computation power is an issue, why not use the same technology as the guys for SETI did and harness all those lost cycles via a screen saver? Or do the models only run on "big iron?"GaryP.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16946775119505539856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-80559544565124833962012-03-19T09:01:31.976-07:002012-03-19T09:01:31.976-07:00"We were satisfied to coast. And this atti..."We were satisfied to coast. And this attitude must end...in weather prediction, education, and everything else... or we will see our nation sink into mediocrity."<br /><br />I could not agree more. We have lived in a period of prosperity from the work of our parents and grandparents. There is someone somewhere working right now to do it (whatever it is) better, faster and for less. We can - we have to do better. <br /><br />Thanks for the topic Dr. Mass.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16238889963817953206noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-67600854880646750272012-03-18T23:36:20.401-07:002012-03-18T23:36:20.401-07:00I'm not seeing the word "Congress" i...I'm not seeing the word "Congress" in this story, so far. (If mentioned here above, within one comment in response to it.) — This, whether with respect to its dragging its heals, or either otherwise, being lobbied, or better perhaps, pressed to "hear" arguments in favor of improving this situation. The whole idea, even prospect, would appear also, to be a good candidate for a well written, both concise and informative petition to sign onto. Good luck. ... Never check 'em myself. As a matter of general course.richard583https://www.blogger.com/profile/00415086002282750839noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-90300219182870073432012-03-18T19:24:09.704-07:002012-03-18T19:24:09.704-07:00I'm not surprised since some members of Congre...I'm not surprised since some members of Congress think they could eliminate the NWS as a cost cutting measure and rely on weather.com for forecasting. It's really a national security issue. How many functions can we outsource to ther countries before we fall irrevocably behind in the technology and we're getting our weather forecasts from China? Thanks for bringing up this issue.wanne1https://www.blogger.com/profile/17194227873777012011noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-34398878299528870462012-03-18T17:54:23.380-07:002012-03-18T17:54:23.380-07:00If NOAA spent less money on the Carbon Scam they&#...If NOAA spent less money on the Carbon Scam they'd have more money available to forecast REAL WEATHER. <br /><br />I have no sympathy for them.Polistrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09594313902571823549noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-8713173018299058872012-03-18T15:18:53.092-07:002012-03-18T15:18:53.092-07:00From the way the situation is described here, it s...From the way the situation is described here, it sounds like it's just a matter of money. We could spend tens of millions of dollars to upgrade equipment for more advanced modeling, and have something about equal to Europe, or we could just keep renting from them. To the author it seems like a matter of national pride, but it might make more sense financially to let the Europeans do what they do best, like make clocks, look sexy, and forecast the weather.Jefferyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02401924805229932162noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-46300372252982535272012-03-18T15:16:53.129-07:002012-03-18T15:16:53.129-07:00It's pretty obvious, Professor Mass. The U.S....It's pretty obvious, Professor Mass. The U.S. is an Empire in decline, and our failures in science and education are simply symptoms of that decline. The causes are another matter, not addressable here, and not reversible in any case.<br /><br />GlennGlennhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16509609643029842132noreply@blogger.com