tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post7767095120485442088..comments2024-03-29T08:29:55.105-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Record Water Levels in Seattle: Why Did It Occur and Is Global Warming Important?Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-72266535327894278362014-01-15T11:19:45.560-08:002014-01-15T11:19:45.560-08:00This was indeed devastating. Most areas were badly...This was indeed devastating. Most areas were badly flooded multiple times this past year. Don't let the water get you down, hire a <a href="http://bennettrestoration.com/water-damage-seattle-wa.html" rel="nofollow">Seattle Water Cleanup</a> orofessional.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-10924292151052354782012-12-22T19:01:36.213-08:002012-12-22T19:01:36.213-08:00So, IPCC AR5 is leaked, study states no increase i...So, IPCC AR5 is leaked, study states no increase in atmospheric water vapor, no global lower tropo temp increase in over 16 years, IPCC climate models overstate ( some in a major way ) future temp increase.<br /><br />And you ignore what solar cycle 24 and 25 may well be suggesting, and now state that Snoqualmie pass will have no snow in 2050 ? Not, 2030 now ?<br /><br />I hope you live long enough to watch the planet cool.steptoe fanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13783170860796020864noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-2347831545291512852012-12-21T08:55:33.667-08:002012-12-21T08:55:33.667-08:00It should be noted that in general in the psrts of...It should be noted that in general in the psrts of the northern hemisphere I've been able to observe (decades worth) in winter the biggest tides are at the new moon, not the full moon. Reference: tide tables.susanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16829151452002682271noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-56402537424443030072012-12-21T07:26:48.850-08:002012-12-21T07:26:48.850-08:00ptwise...
one other factor regarding tides I here...ptwise...<br /><br />one other factor regarding tides I here mentioned deals with tetonic plates - that the area in and around Olympia and Tacoma is "sinking" faster while other areas are "rising" - thus increasing or decreasing the chances of record tides<br /><br />is this significant?Bill Wisehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06083214766445122316noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-72261859634722110192012-12-20T14:26:42.110-08:002012-12-20T14:26:42.110-08:00Cliff, first want to mention that I’ve much enjoye...Cliff, first want to mention that I’ve much enjoyed reading your blog. Have a few comments here though usage of the phrase “King Tides” which has long been a sort of pet peeve of mine. To explain why, need to first expand a bit on the background information about tides you provided. <br /><br />Larger astronomical tidal ranges occur (1) around the times of the full moon and new moon (recent record water level event associated with the latter) when the earth moon and sun are approximately in a line, and (2) when the moon is near perigee (closest point of approach to the earth in its 28-day orbit). So it’s when these 2 combine, when the occurrence of a full or new moon coincides with the moon being at perigee in its 28-day orbit around the earth, that the highest high tides will occur. This tends to happen 3 or 4 times per year.<br /><br />But then as Cliff mentions, there’s also (3) the variation in distance of the earth from the sun, with tidal ranges enhanced when the earth is closest (perihelion, closest approach, occurs around Jan 2 each year).<br /><br />So it’s when all 3 of these most come together that the highest astronomical high tides of the year will occur: and these are the so-called “King Tides.”<br /><br />My issue with all this is that the magnitudes of both (2) and (3) are pretty small. If we look for example at the 2012 NOAA Astronomical Tide Chart for Seattle, the highest value for December is 13.0 ft (6:50 am Sat Dec 15 and 7:34 am Dec 16) – indeed the highest high tide of the year – but the highest value for November, 12.6 ft on Nov 16, was only 5 inches lower. And the highest back in Feb, 12.7 ft, was just 4 inches lower. <br /><br />So calling them “King Tides” and corresponding media usage of adjectival phrases like “extreme high tides” – like in this New York Times article<br /><br />http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/26/nyregion/king-tide-to-raise-sea-level-on-atlantic-coast.html?_r=0<br /><br />strikes me as kind of hyperbolic (or at least we should admit that it’s a pretty small Kingdom!).<br /><br />Warren<br />Warrenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16863175678165086318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-72358206659317537332012-12-20T14:11:41.676-08:002012-12-20T14:11:41.676-08:00You write, 'Interestingly, the eastern Pacific...You write, 'Interestingly, the eastern Pacific is a region where sea level has not been rising recently. '<br /><br />Is sea level not constant over the planet? Are there regions on the planet where sea levels are different from other regions, even if adjusted for winds, currents, tides, etc? Why would the sea level rise (rate of change) in one area be greater than another area? <br /><br />Lots of questions, I know!<br /><br />Thanks for the great information and scientific approach to a fascinating subject, Cliff!<br /><br />AndyAndyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15369325677310528747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-84102517418725044932012-12-20T13:38:45.636-08:002012-12-20T13:38:45.636-08:00Clif Mass is my forecaster, it shall not snow.
He...Clif Mass is my forecaster, it shall not snow.<br /><br />He predicteth the sunny green pastures, He leadeth me to avoid the troubled waters, He restoreth my faith in the science of Meteorolgy.<br /><br />Yea, tho I ride through valley of the shadow of stupid freaking cell-phone drivers, I shall fear no snowfall, for thou art doing thy job. Thy barometer and thy thermometer, they comfort me.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10675280510229786608noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-82243387872356872612012-12-20T11:01:04.892-08:002012-12-20T11:01:04.892-08:00Lunar perigee (more significant than solar perihel...Lunar perigee (more significant than solar perihelion?) coincided with new moon, but that was six days earlier! Re the wind direction, tidal flooding also occurred at Fay Bainbridge park on the east side of Bainbridge Island, which would seem contradictory.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14224844852097875619noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-57212347965017010492012-12-20T10:00:23.043-08:002012-12-20T10:00:23.043-08:00Cliff, appreciate the nice summary explaining the ...Cliff, appreciate the nice summary explaining the event was really based on coincidence of independent events which has a low overall probability of occuring. To add to your remarks, Global sea level changes may be non-changing or falling in our region but the other component that affects local sea level change is vertical land movement. In Seattle, and Central Puget Sound land is subsiding. Therefore there is an effective local sea level rise which shouldn't be ignored. This can be seen in the change in mean sea level each time NOAA updates their tidal epoch. The most recent change from epoch 1960-1978 to 1983-2001 was 0.18 feet (2.16 inches)<br /><br />http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/station_info.shtml?stn=9447130+Seattle,+Puget+Sound,+WA<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01770949957055931149noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-37637109714877591432012-12-20T09:18:55.576-08:002012-12-20T09:18:55.576-08:00Cliff,
I wish your Earth Orbit illustration had a ...Cliff,<br />I wish your Earth Orbit illustration had a larger minor axis. Right now it looks like parhelion is not Earth's closest approach to the sun. <br />Otherwise, great post!Dennyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03755045757770722794noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-65943944773356341302012-12-20T07:06:31.942-08:002012-12-20T07:06:31.942-08:00Cliff this was a really interesting post and provi...Cliff this was a really interesting post and provided some context for an internal discussion at our yacht club re marina renovation.<br /><br />question came up at the bus stop this morning: are the weather patterns we are see ( as adults) different than what we recall as children-- are we really having wetter, longer storms than we used to?<br /><br />brad on Vashon Bradhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06277975218753953452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-49429514558572567042012-12-20T03:56:45.595-08:002012-12-20T03:56:45.595-08:00Cliff, following up on comment/observation from a ...Cliff, following up on comment/observation from a few days ago: current forecast for Snoqualmie Pass (For Thursday) is high of 26 and low of 18, yet the observed temperature is now 34. What's going on?s/v Mata Harihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06405789575031685369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-83477955470588718582012-12-20T00:15:55.333-08:002012-12-20T00:15:55.333-08:00IPCC4 estimates are from 0.5-2 feet in the next 10...IPCC4 estimates are from 0.5-2 feet in the next 100 years, and since then those estimates have been revised upwards in the literature to 2-6 feet in the next 100 years. That makes the statement, "yesterday's tide would be an everyday tide by midcentury", to be only hyperbole in that its more likely that yesterday's tide would be a yearly king tide occurrence by midcentury.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15793874284872715747noreply@blogger.com