tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post7818545913386374844..comments2024-03-28T22:29:15.590-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Friday Snow: Understanding the UncertaintiesCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-40273248185464577622013-12-19T19:35:40.935-08:002013-12-19T19:35:40.935-08:00Yeah. We might get eighteen or nineteen snowflakes...Yeah. We might get eighteen or nineteen snowflakes in West Seattle by noon Friday.<br /><br />Nobody can accurately forecast snow in Seattle. Nobody. In a hundred years from now, it will be the same...Nobody... Rodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07778022817763136336noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-91904748667708057842013-12-19T12:57:11.503-08:002013-12-19T12:57:11.503-08:00I'm curious about the long range forecast. Is ...I'm curious about the long range forecast. Is there any model output for a snowy early 2014?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11391134489561786303noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-44361837565459466272013-12-19T12:34:20.587-08:002013-12-19T12:34:20.587-08:00Hi Cliff--thanks for the info (I'm in Lynnwood...Hi Cliff--thanks for the info (I'm in Lynnwood, my commute to Seattle tomorrow is doomed).<br /><br />When will you update again?Conniehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07768204043611644434noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-37268403520201980362013-12-19T09:36:09.072-08:002013-12-19T09:36:09.072-08:00It seems that the forecasting tools have evolved g...It seems that the forecasting tools have evolved greatly since I was young, both in terms of sources of data (e.g., the coastal radar) and modeling, yet the prediction of snow events around here always seems to be an Achilles heel for even the most seasoned meteorologists. I can't count the number of times I've been let down by high-confidence snow forecasts that didn't come to be, nor the number of times I've been very pleasantly surprised by unexpected snow events (I live in the usual PSCZ zone, at about 500' elevation). What sort of tools and technologies would improve the reliability of snow forecasts in Western Washington, if any at all?Joshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09534556179844509713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-52160433843006659452013-12-19T08:17:53.704-08:002013-12-19T08:17:53.704-08:00The only place I really count on for accurate fore...The only place I really count on for accurate forecasts.STD ridden guy thanks to Donna Kacyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15520576649726769593noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-58387883250590968952013-12-18T23:32:31.125-08:002013-12-18T23:32:31.125-08:00Thanks for the weather fun reminder. Have sent in ...Thanks for the weather fun reminder. Have sent in a small donation! <br /><br />Thank you Cliff for all that you do!!!!<br /><br />Question - will the snow on the ground perhaps keep it atmospherically cooler longer than the models suggest? Also, will there be much snow before 10PM tomorrow night? I have to pick up my wife at the airport.....Kenna Wickmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02802821050975830973noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-58120071407402966602013-12-18T22:49:46.191-08:002013-12-18T22:49:46.191-08:00So... the Portland/Vancouver area? Not much snow...So... the Portland/Vancouver area? Not much snow? Melting faster than up north? Inquiring school teachers want to know!snapdragonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10052978249380402838noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-91035655580256224722013-12-18T22:04:37.701-08:002013-12-18T22:04:37.701-08:00Okay Cliff,
I do not understand why forecasted sn...Okay Cliff, <br />I do not understand why forecasted snow amounts are much higher on the east side.<br />The Kitsap area is NOT shadowed in this event, but yet east of Puget Sound gets much more precip in the GFS after 4am. <br />I do not understand why that could be the case.<br />Upslope flow against the cascades? That is all I can think of.<br /> <br />Benhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00948636254416949019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-91242092472432217652013-12-18T21:37:40.555-08:002013-12-18T21:37:40.555-08:00A pocket of NE Kitsap shows 1.5-2" @ 1AM, the...A pocket of NE Kitsap shows 1.5-2" @ 1AM, then .5-1" @ 4AM, then 1-1.5" @ 7AM. I don't see any convergence zone in the winds except SE of the Olympics. What's the variability in that (my) location?AndrewMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07373428764180673188noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-34459072404577589002013-12-18T21:35:53.731-08:002013-12-18T21:35:53.731-08:00Nailed it Cliff. This one will be bad for Vancouve...Nailed it Cliff. This one will be bad for Vancouver BC. Not only a very strong warm front (with associated high omega) but it's a classic blocked flow storm. The southerlies off the surface can't make it over the combination of the N Shore Mountains and the mass of pooled cold air created by adiabatics. Incidentally, the GFS-WRF creates the most S for YVR - 20 cm - and I think that's well within the realm of possibility.ceejayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16227622957362761023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-52442395600899943722013-12-18T21:34:03.587-08:002013-12-18T21:34:03.587-08:00Such accurate information is a Christmas gift unto...Such accurate information is a Christmas gift unto itself -- thankee Sir! jingly-bells. (praemonitus praemunitus ...or 4warned 4armed)Just AboveNOAAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14671116119773695985noreply@blogger.com