tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post7903542555111956195..comments2024-03-18T22:50:29.792-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Make U.S. Numerical Weather Prediction Great (Again)Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-20025419362396910962017-01-21T11:12:14.524-08:002017-01-21T11:12:14.524-08:00Thanks Cliff for an interesting and provocative po...Thanks Cliff for an interesting and provocative post. Best of luck on your goals.David Younghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17029429374522399227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-56172888332042240632017-01-16T04:26:29.710-08:002017-01-16T04:26:29.710-08:00My comments are not showing up. Censorship! *Kab...My comments are not showing up. Censorship! *Kaboom!* Here that? That's the sound of Trump's big canon coming to clean house! Better get your priorities straight! Do you want a better infrastructure that actually encourages a healthy economy not just quick fixes by higher taxes? <br /><br />Then don't vote for people who only care about bathroom modification to please the minority and those who would rather fix murals then fix roads that need it.G+IsDeadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14748942001214338077noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-48998731475268963612017-01-13T19:35:26.931-08:002017-01-13T19:35:26.931-08:00That the UK Met Office has reasonable accuracy in ...That the UK Met Office has reasonable accuracy in its forecasts is remarkable, in my opinion. Our relatively small archipelago is very much at the whim of the winds. A small change in direction or intensity of an approaching (or receding, of course) weather system can have dramatic effects on our weather. Another thing I find remarkable is our mild climate, considering London is on the same latitude as the southern end of James Bay, part of Hudson Bay. We had a couple of inches of snow yesterday, and southern England just isn't used to it. Roads closed and massive travel disruption. MostlyHarmlesshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18058940884892720332noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-55720420765748806082017-01-13T17:44:14.540-08:002017-01-13T17:44:14.540-08:00You do realize don't you that the average swam...You do realize don't you that the average swamp has many beneficial organisms in it, even if you dislike certain leaches?<br /><br />In another solar system, in another galaxy, there is another web forum that discusses exactly the same notions of "error" by exactly the same sort of political animal, but this time regarding the forecast flood levels of a particular river in California. The forecasts were the dreaded "models" of course and they plotted a familiar pattern of uncertainty and adjustment as feedback informed theory as the flooding progressed.<br /><br />Always, and I do mean always, the "conservative types" were highly suspicious of reliability and they gleefully jumped all over what they termed "errors" or "flaws" in how the forecasts did not perfectly match the reality (only seen in the brilliance of hindsight).<br /><br />This is predictable, more predictable than weather. Authoritarian personalities are measurably more hostile to ambiguity and risk. That is, they compartmentalize their "world view" as black and white, good and evil, up and down and no shades of grey. As well they are risk averse and counterintuitively, that is not risk competent - quite the contrary.<br /><br />Knowing this, the hostility to, cynicism and denial of modelling as a credible means to anticipate future events is to be expected by those who identify as conservative in politics. They value and in fact demand certainty. When we explain that any and all forecasting involves uncertainty one way or another, this triggers their defences. It is battle stations from there on.<br /><br />http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/study-predicts-political-beliefs-with-83-percent-accuracy-17536124/Bruce Kayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11070247298371179095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-6500262962741611272017-01-12T10:50:52.737-08:002017-01-12T10:50:52.737-08:00Agree with Moral Individual. As with medicine, the...Agree with Moral Individual. As with medicine, the 21st century scientist often thinks we are close to knowledge of incredibly complex and chaotic systems like the brain or global weather. Better to just be humble. For Trumps part it should be great. He will most likely drain the swamp of politicized science and restore the alphabet soup of bureaucracies to their more humble and intended missions.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02059221822159483655noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-29485221104544862482017-01-11T20:12:57.947-08:002017-01-11T20:12:57.947-08:00I don't think the problem is computing. I fol...I don't think the problem is computing. I follow, as can any of you, the models used by NOAA, by TWC, WU, etc, on a site called pivotalweather.com. If you look at this site, it will show you just a taste of the variability of atmospheric conditions that forecasters have to deal with. <br /><br />I don't think computing power is the problem, the prediction seems to suck at the NWS. But if you look at recent storms, and check multiple sources, as I do, you can see many of the outlets screwed up badly with the last round of storms. Places that were not supposed to get tons of snow did. Places that were supposed to get tons of snow didn't, like far eastern portions of Washington State. I mean, how can anybody forecast that the latest storm, that strong low off Portland, would just sit there all day yesterday and into this morning before dissipating? <br /><br />Great post, but I believe the problem is just bigger than computers. I believe the weather is getting more difficult to predict, because of changing atmospheric conditions (sorry, read climate change). And the extremes are getting worse, the pendulum swings of weather. Just look up what happened lately in the entire West Coast lately to see extreme weather at work. VoltsDudehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06861488175009055155noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-49086226278218549162017-01-11T19:52:18.426-08:002017-01-11T19:52:18.426-08:00Cliff, what's up with all this dry weather? Se...Cliff, what's up with all this dry weather? Seems like all of our precipitation is dien in California?Ricky Poolehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17764338380323371821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-91051000730702802022017-01-11T19:05:49.340-08:002017-01-11T19:05:49.340-08:00Cliff,
Another great post. Call me a cynic, but ...Cliff,<br /><br />Another great post. Call me a cynic, but I don't expect any funding to the NWS/NWP from the GOP congress or GOP President. In my experience, they have shown that they're more interested in sending those government tax dollars to private corporations instead, who aren't accountable to citizens, only profits instead.<br /><br />Also, I love that you don't shy away from politics. It is intertwined into everything, including U.S. weather forecasting. It can't be ignored and I'm impressed that you don't. Thanks for a great post.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00285824902664453932noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-84233221288952504412017-01-11T18:31:01.584-08:002017-01-11T18:31:01.584-08:00Alex Taub (and all modelling cynics) -
You may h...Alex Taub (and all modelling cynics) -<br /><br />You may have a point about your dog, the radar and your wet finger for the immediate now, perhaps even an hour from now as well as your little tiny locale where your own eyes have some insight, but that is hardly a good test of modelling.<br /><br />Are you aware of chaos theory under which mathematically ( very high predictability) it is calculated that beyond 9 days ahead, weather forecasting is impossible, even if your models have perfect predictability function? Weather is a chaotic system, like so many others.<br /><br />Now consider this: Modern weather forecasting has attained ( I don't know the stats, but bet Cliff does) remarkably functional reliability in accuracy of forecasts for up to 7 days ahead. That is, we the user can rely on them to at least start planning, with some confidence that the forecast will represent a good approximation of reality. That means we can better manage risk, far better than any wet finger or advice from your dog as to wether it will be kinda sorta maybe windy in an hour right here but spin a bottle for across the bridge.<br /><br />Now consider this: this remarkable closing on the absolute mathematical limits has been almost exclusively a result of ever well resourced and refined computer models. come to think of it, even your car is more reliable due to modelling. Perfectly reliable? of course not. More reliable than your old Edsel? you better believe it, no matter how nostalgic you are.Bruce Kayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11070247298371179095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-79546960134575541202017-01-11T13:26:05.256-08:002017-01-11T13:26:05.256-08:00Banjo - Oh boo hoo! Supporting science shouldn...Banjo - Oh boo hoo! Supporting science shouldn't be political, but nowadays it is. This is Dr. Mass' blog and he will write about what he wants. But stick around and keep reading. You might find that what you see as "political" is actually common sense. Sullahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04609303622825940681noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-20760607229273365942017-01-11T13:21:54.453-08:002017-01-11T13:21:54.453-08:00Less whining, more predicting!! Abandon the nws if...Less whining, more predicting!! Abandon the nws if it so bad. Use Europe's! In fact lets give money to Europe to further develop their supperior system and maybe we will get something phenominal.<br />Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12573602584079287561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-25783466343253674972017-01-11T11:49:29.485-08:002017-01-11T11:49:29.485-08:00We got your 4 inches here in Eatonville, Washingto...We got your 4 inches here in Eatonville, Washington and the dusting went as far north as Graham. We were supposed to get 1-3 inches Monday night but got not so much as a single flake. No mention of snow at all for last night and we end up with 4+ inches....go figure. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-75519912519707057602017-01-11T11:20:00.103-08:002017-01-11T11:20:00.103-08:00Alex is right about the forecast--for the Kitsap P...Alex is right about the forecast--for the Kitsap Peninsula and all the areas close to Puget Sound the forecast for last night (Tuesday night) should have read "windy with north wind 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph".<br /><br />The forecast is wrong sometimes. There are a handful of good reasons for this and a few excuses that may or may not add up. I could do a blog on it, heh.Zathrashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17015108090179602410noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-1744729278490701912017-01-11T07:43:02.216-08:002017-01-11T07:43:02.216-08:00Cliff, absolutely love your detailed analysis on t...Cliff, absolutely love your detailed analysis on this! You have been hitting this for as long as I have read your blog. There is NO reason the US cannot and should not be the best in weather modeling and forecasting. This is why governmental bureaucracy drives me crazy! We have the money, we have the talent, we should be the best. I think you should forward this well written analysis to the powers at be until you get some results. I for one, am going to write my senator and congressman in hopes someone will listen! Btw, we have had flurries all night in SE Auburn and despite the radar showing precip. we just can't get anything heavy enough to stick!! Yet, just 7 miles away, the roads are covered. Beyond frustrating...Weatherfreakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01448044230017714312noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-24852843785025662422017-01-11T01:12:16.689-08:002017-01-11T01:12:16.689-08:00Can you do a write up about the snow event in Port...Can you do a write up about the snow event in Portland. What was to be a dusting to 4 inch event turned out to be one of the biggest snowfalls in some time. I have 11-12 inches at my place in the west side of Portland.<br /><br />While playing with the dog in the middle of the park I swear I saw lightening. How did the models miss this? shayshayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12508002937391787420noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-42208647312147054402017-01-10T21:19:28.850-08:002017-01-10T21:19:28.850-08:00I read this blog often, and I have learned a lot h...I read this blog often, and I have learned a lot here. However, I am disappointed that you choose to discuss politics rather than science. I hoped you were above that.banjo killdeerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15855649963579600764noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-14317905448454446992017-01-10T20:35:08.856-08:002017-01-10T20:35:08.856-08:00Correction! " Roughly 100 million dollars, th...Correction! " Roughly 100 million dollars, the price of a few fighter jets" should probably be "Roughly 100 million dollars, the price of an F-35 ... without an engine."<br /><br />Citation: www.f35.com/about/fast-facts/cost (a Lockheed martin website)dghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00610169067109170903noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-82452387452908189512017-01-10T20:00:52.530-08:002017-01-10T20:00:52.530-08:00According to Trump, models don't work. You ne...According to Trump, models don't work. You need to go back to using couriers!Bruce Kayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11070247298371179095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-69184534953317440812017-01-10T18:43:25.428-08:002017-01-10T18:43:25.428-08:00Blah Blah Blah......you and the NWS have have so o...Blah Blah Blah......you and the NWS have have so off the last week it makes your comments and especially your forecasts laughable. Right now in West Seattle we are getting high winds, with higher gusts,.......yet no one said anything about that. Snow is just outside of Olympia heading north. <br /><br />All I need at this point is my outside temperature gauge, a look at the radar, look out the window and I'm golden. Or maybe I should ask my dog??? Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17302717432902387538noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-34317901964349365812017-01-10T15:22:36.135-08:002017-01-10T15:22:36.135-08:00Just out of curiosity, is the modeling still such ...Just out of curiosity, is the modeling still such that each cell only needs data from its adjacent cells? When I studied parallel processing back in the 70s, weather modeling was given as an example of SIMD architecture, ie single instruction, multiple data points, in that every cell could be doing the exactly same calculation at once. If so, I would suspect the current super computers are rather ill suited to the problem--they're running 10k+ Xeon multicore processors, which are spending most of their energy decoding instructions, managing pipelines, cache memory etc. I haven't looked at chip layout in quite a while, but I can't imagine the control logic got any less complicated. If the basics of modeling hasn't changed,you need most of your chip dedicated to computation, and very little in control...of course that would mean making your own chips for probably a very limited market.Bob Scheulenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02277373818101496547noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-82097762700848040512017-01-10T14:55:12.627-08:002017-01-10T14:55:12.627-08:00One small point: How much significance is there b...One small point: How much significance is there between the 0.857 ECM skill and the 0.814 US NWS? If you do an anomaly correlation for each month for the past 36 months and do this for both the EMC and the US NWS, and then calculate the average skill level and 3-sigma errors from those individual skill determinations -- how much is the difference between 0.86 and 0.81 outside those 3-sigma error bars? This will give you a measure of how far you're modeling is really behind... Cheers!Brianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07769178454763516644noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-30572361918463751882017-01-10T12:53:34.343-08:002017-01-10T12:53:34.343-08:00One thing that would help the entire climatology f...One thing that would help the entire climatology field is to allow prominent researchers such as Richard Lindzen and other voices (such as Judith Curry) a role in these discussions. The squelching of any discordant voices in the current mantra is not a signal of confidence of their assertions. Additionally, getting the government out of crony capitalistic schemes such as the carbon trading fraud and the Solyndra fiasco will only help the public perception of climatology in the long run. Eric Blairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09376653214948517679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-59464549318081417062017-01-10T10:44:28.871-08:002017-01-10T10:44:28.871-08:00I like the scrambling eggs analogy. The duplicati...I like the scrambling eggs analogy. The duplication of effort at all levels of government is astounding and it sounds like weather forecasting is not immune to this affliction. Thank you for having the intestinal fortitude to share your thoughts and opinions on it.<br />Les WilliamsAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06267237240961507800noreply@blogger.com