tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post8110768508064392628..comments2024-03-18T22:50:29.792-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Historic Snowstorm This Week?Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger31125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-85331623330831918782011-01-11T15:58:35.756-08:002011-01-11T15:58:35.756-08:00at 1550hrs in westport we are now getting our firs...at 1550hrs in westport we are now getting our first snow flakes. it is 35 degrees 1 1/2 miles from the oceanDavids Farmshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13218048089730146821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-10819927991511750702011-01-09T09:40:09.528-08:002011-01-09T09:40:09.528-08:00Two inches in Bellingham this morning. Should mel...Two inches in Bellingham this morning. Should melt away quickly when the sun breaks thru.<br /><br />Excited to hear Dr. Mass's thoughts on the upcoming week.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06656438535788295605noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-45860537570983517742011-01-09T09:02:29.907-08:002011-01-09T09:02:29.907-08:00Got a nice photo of yesterday's convergence zo...Got a nice photo of yesterday's convergence zone from the waters north of Anacortes. All day a stationary wall of cumulus clouds was visible to the south. I posted it on my facebook site.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-78968391422505628912011-01-09T09:01:16.670-08:002011-01-09T09:01:16.670-08:00Two inches of snow which is blowing around, up her...Two inches of snow which is blowing around, up here in Bellingham.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06656438535788295605noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-35872198684231709762011-01-09T08:52:44.957-08:002011-01-09T08:52:44.957-08:00Bummed. That's all I can say.Bummed. That's all I can say.M'sFanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14971248526626776108noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-1021940801466664962011-01-09T08:25:50.975-08:002011-01-09T08:25:50.975-08:00Models seem to be showing to much southern flow wi...Models seem to be showing to much southern flow with northern track, if the arctic is not in place or pulled into the sound, we will be wet not white.*(LMeyershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02685347962425599461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-68361744936779032942011-01-09T07:42:12.383-08:002011-01-09T07:42:12.383-08:00Two inches of really wet slippery snow in Bellingh...Two inches of really wet slippery snow in Bellingham this morning.<br /><br />Still snowing lightly at 7:30.cornbreadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10106492006188662532noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-30789080684999685882011-01-09T07:40:59.143-08:002011-01-09T07:40:59.143-08:00Bellingham is back in the winter wonderland for th...Bellingham is back in the winter wonderland for the time being. When I was up briefly at 1:30 am there were huge wet flakes falling thickly. This morn it looks like maybe one or two inches wioth a slight chance of more. Love it!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-68027590886294328982011-01-08T23:13:06.674-08:002011-01-08T23:13:06.674-08:00I have to agree with Josh.The latest 00z Jan 9th m...I have to agree with Josh.The latest 00z Jan 9th models seem to be trending with warmer weather midweek for this area.And usually when they trend warmer, they seldom ever flip flop back to the cold and snowy weather scenario.It looks like the upper level trough that was originally was forecast to dip south into our area will be moving more west than south.Of course, we all know that means a mild maritme westerly flow here.(Maybe the Bellingham area still has a chance for snow ,provided that the arctic outflow continues and enough Pacific moisture overruns it.)I suspect that the winter weather advisories for next week will soon be toned down or cancelled completely.I`m eagerly waiting for Prof. Mass`analysis of the situation.climo manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10555794339838337797noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-68400098943886851642011-01-08T23:11:18.217-08:002011-01-08T23:11:18.217-08:00It requires an amazing amount of accuracy for the ...It requires an amazing amount of accuracy for the models to nail this one so far out. The storm that is going to hit us is still about 2,000 miles out in the Pacific. If the center of the low shifts 100 miles north or south of making landfall around Long Beach it is the difference between a giant snowstorm or rainstorm. It is a 20 degree swing in temps. Absolutely crazy! One thing is for sure there is going to be lots of moisture coming our way and it might be snow or it might be rain, but someone on the west coast from Vancouver to Portland is going to get lots of snow. Love it!Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16328117337008075841noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-69107037873451261802011-01-08T22:38:22.614-08:002011-01-08T22:38:22.614-08:00After reading the opening paragraph, I was waiting...After reading the opening paragraph, I was waiting to find out how you "estimate and deal with the uncertainties," but I never saw how. I was waiting for an explanation about how you determine which case(s) may be the most likely, and so on. Isn't there something meteorologically that will influence where the low will go? Or do forecasters just wait until the models agree to tell us what they agree on?Wx Enthusiasthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11676337731061824294noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-52275670874048227202011-01-08T21:39:40.929-08:002011-01-08T21:39:40.929-08:00Jim Foreman will need a second parka if this mater...Jim Foreman will need a second parka if this materializes as the worst case. Good times! Thanks Cliff for the great info.Murdochhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13100029585198447442noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-63791001991891246622011-01-08T20:34:34.760-08:002011-01-08T20:34:34.760-08:00I am dying waiting for the next updated post....I am dying waiting for the next updated post....Randihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14427817577470389203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-34727335887257575162011-01-08T20:25:13.848-08:002011-01-08T20:25:13.848-08:00Tonights 00z GFS is terrible.Tonights 00z GFS is terrible.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09540605116316750541noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-52402559057277127742011-01-08T17:44:03.064-08:002011-01-08T17:44:03.064-08:00A few years ago when we had our big windstorm, fiv...A few years ago when we had our big windstorm, five out of nine of the UW ensemble members (that were available at that time) had a big windstorm with a perfect set up. That was very good agreement and made the forecast pretty straitforward. It will be a great help to watch the surface low development and tracks in the ensembles next week. The members are <br />CENT / GFS / CMCG / ETA / GASP / JMA / NGPS / TCWB / UKMO / GFS+ / CMCG+ / GASP+ / JMA+ / UKMO+ <br />ETA+ / NGPS+ / TCWB+ / <br /><br />Now I should know this, but is one of the members the same or a close match to the ECMWF?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-18528182937165338032011-01-08T17:31:58.642-08:002011-01-08T17:31:58.642-08:00Where are the subfreezing daytime highs? All I se...Where are the subfreezing daytime highs? All I see are mid and even upper 30s. I am skeptical about getting dry cold snow like we had in November. If we are going to get wet snow, I'd rather it be rain.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-23052727285606666842011-01-08T15:28:39.625-08:002011-01-08T15:28:39.625-08:00Excellent discussion by Cliff and the the usual su...Excellent discussion by Cliff and the the usual suspects. The excitement is palpable here on the Peninsula. Buckle up and stay tuned.Michael DeMarcohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04320634165404283841noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-19910517738907419032011-01-08T14:09:32.105-08:002011-01-08T14:09:32.105-08:00I know 2 kids who are hoping for a snowpocalypse n...I know 2 kids who are hoping for a snowpocalypse next week! They had 2.5 days off school extending their Thanksgiving becuz of the Nov. event. We're at about 700', east of North Bend in the foothills. We ended up with about an inch of the stuff last night in about 30 minutes and the frost line at this point looks to be about 1500'. NWS is still predicting that we are due for another 1-3" this afternoon, 1-2" tonight, and 1-2" tomorrow, never mind next week. BRING IT ON!Penhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11763040771822988345noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-32490628272468969242011-01-08T12:32:51.833-08:002011-01-08T12:32:51.833-08:00A foot of snow in Portland? OMG. My plants won'...A foot of snow in Portland? OMG. My plants won't like that, not one bit.danger gardenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09227500551609537140noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-43172897720375277882011-01-08T09:02:39.560-08:002011-01-08T09:02:39.560-08:0012GFS shifts the low further to the N into SW WA.....12GFS shifts the low further to the N into SW WA...This would mean at least 10+ inches for Seattle...Also worth noting - 12Z GFS paints a snowy pattern through 1/19...Guess LA NINA is beginning to make her mark on W WA!Hurricane Tracker Discussionshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03430831233190832140noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-74201133437079781712011-01-08T08:55:13.136-08:002011-01-08T08:55:13.136-08:00I note, on the upper left of the 156-hr chart, tha...I note, on the upper left of the 156-hr chart, that there appears to be a significant closed Low (what we used to call "close-coupled") off the Queen Charlottes and N. Vancouver Isl.<br /><br />What is the prog for the surface track of this Low? If it follows the south of Portland track, on top of two days of snow, we could have a REAL weather event, probably similar to the winter of 1950.<br /><br />As it is, the present event is shaping up on the models almost identical to the January 2004 event, which was a killer here in the PQR CWA.Rivrdoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02685083857476811667noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-54313161071982392532011-01-08T08:39:40.764-08:002011-01-08T08:39:40.764-08:00The NAM has the low coming north later next week, ...The NAM has the low coming north later next week, the big difference looks to be the strength of the high between the GFS and the NAM. I have a hard time believing the NAM right now just because the strength of the arctic high over the continent, the low should track around the periphery of the arctic air. Maybe the strength of the high is being well overdone??Michael Snyderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06230219537755848399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-41917427616737773002011-01-08T08:14:07.987-08:002011-01-08T08:14:07.987-08:00As usual, a careful and measured response, highly ...As usual, a careful and measured response, highly informative and without any hint of "mass (no pun intended) hysteria and panic."<br />Your blog is a joy, and it's one of the few I regularly check. Thanks so much for your insights and education. I always look forward to your discussions.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-6253270732772625402011-01-08T07:45:25.925-08:002011-01-08T07:45:25.925-08:00Climoman- Check out the gradients on the GFS from ...Climoman- Check out the gradients on the GFS from the huge arctic high when the first storm moves through on thu-fri. Very strong Frazier River outflow.Michael Snyderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06230219537755848399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-76451981835158051482011-01-08T05:58:57.746-08:002011-01-08T05:58:57.746-08:00Thank you Dr Mass . I always appreciate your care...Thank you Dr Mass . I always appreciate your careful explanations. I am gaining a good understanding of how the technology is used. After reading this I feel comfortable about some of my planning for the week ahead.Upupaepopshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05840292738185134371noreply@blogger.com