tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post8399454279552420678..comments2024-03-28T23:07:35.632-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: When a forecast goes wrongCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-65956588309419305612015-03-18T00:06:40.449-07:002015-03-18T00:06:40.449-07:00.. One for the record books certainly. A few more ..... One for the record books certainly. A few more stories like this one would probably make a pretty good read. richard583https://www.blogger.com/profile/00415086002282750839noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-70200012697744772042015-03-16T01:41:53.111-07:002015-03-16T01:41:53.111-07:00Here in Olympia I had some yard work to do this (p...Here in Olympia I had some yard work to do this (past) weekend. The mid-week forecast had pegged Sat as the wetter day, but, by 1pm the showers had ended and didn't resume until 10pm. I was able to get a lot done.<br /><br />About 9pm Sat I checked the forecast, which showed 90% rain through 6am Monday, with total precip about 2". This was more or less consistent with the Sat 8AM ensemble forecast Cliff showed (for Seattle). <br /><br />It did pour Sunday but ceased abruptly at 5pm (and has been dry since), just when the ensemble had predicted a peak in precip (around 00Z Mon 16th).<br /><br />So, even with 18H lead time or less, the timing of this storm couldn't be accurately forecast. Nevertheless, with a measured precip since Sat 10pm of slightly > 2", the prediction was remarkably close. Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11548693323486769251noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-35979410206596693672015-03-15T21:11:44.837-07:002015-03-15T21:11:44.837-07:00Dr Mass. For your records: I live on the West side...Dr Mass. For your records: I live on the West side of Whidbey Island, GPS 48.1439, -122.6042. As of this time the 24 hr rainfall total on my rain gauge is 1.41 inches. Dick on Whidbey.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-55564947202101271462015-03-15T20:52:39.016-07:002015-03-15T20:52:39.016-07:00I just noticed on my home LaCrosse weather station...I just noticed on my home LaCrosse weather station that the pressure just shot up a lot in the last 3 hr. I thought it might be an error, so looked at wunderground, and sure enough, their plot shows the predicted pressure zooming up an inch of Hg in the next 15 hr. That seems like to huge fast jump. What's the cause of that? Is that unusual?Eric Deutschhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01739737531854525786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-89548623218943338192015-03-15T20:15:40.800-07:002015-03-15T20:15:40.800-07:00We have farmed on Whidbey Island for a hundred yea...We have farmed on Whidbey Island for a hundred years now. We have had .82 today and it appears to be about done. The challenge with PNW weather prediction is and always has been unpredictability. Models or no models it is still the institutional knowledge that makes the difference. In weather forecasting and farming.Ron at 3 Sistershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08448936302592697858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-80810139860670369272015-03-15T19:03:20.822-07:002015-03-15T19:03:20.822-07:00It has not stopped raining since daybreak here on ...It has not stopped raining since daybreak here on Bainbridge Island (and it rained a good part of the night, too). Now standing at 1.92" since it began and 2.66" for the weekend.<br /><br />Front yard is more like a marsh than a lawn at the moment.David B.https://www.blogger.com/profile/12945730624561307494noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-50307483709667658702015-03-15T18:11:43.185-07:002015-03-15T18:11:43.185-07:00I signed up for the McClinchy Mile bicycle ride ba...I signed up for the McClinchy Mile bicycle ride based on the original forecast, then came the flip-flop on Saturday. I still did the ride in steady rain. Weather Underground had the rain in the forecast about a day before the NWS finally came around.BrownsBayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03969021391279264412noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-36357310370775215972015-03-15T17:24:15.239-07:002015-03-15T17:24:15.239-07:00Indeed, Cliff. This is one of the bigger misses th...Indeed, Cliff. This is one of the bigger misses that I have seen in a very long time. The rain has parked over West Seattle all day... <br /><br />Not complaining, though. I am happy that the weather forecasts are not perfect...they have improved...big time...but not perfect.<br /><br />Matches life...<br /><br />-RodRodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07778022817763136336noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-35411705947046173242015-03-15T14:18:32.369-07:002015-03-15T14:18:32.369-07:00Cliff, is it accurate to suggest that the activity...Cliff, is it accurate to suggest that the activity in the Seattle vicinity on Saturday was indicative of the probability that the forecast was inaccurate? I offer that simply because I live in NE Seattle, about 2 miles west of the Sandpoint NOAA offices, and observed that the conditions Saturday weren't what I'd expected based on the forecasts I'd read. At most we had a few tenths of inches of rain from Friday night through Saturday morning. Saturday was dry, really very pleasant, but leading me to conclude that the system that was plain on the maps was either not behaving as anticipated, or had changed.<br /><br />After the Sounders game Saturday night it began to rain the rain that I had anticipated, but was still raining in the morning when we did the St Patrick's Day Dash, and is still raining copiously here, in NE Seattle, as I type at 2:15.<br /><br />Interesting information you've posted. Thanks very much.<br /><br />John F McBride<br />or, for, St Patrick's Day<br />Sean Proinsias Mac Giolla Brighde<br />.John McBridehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09503331313775640577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-38524016593608712992015-03-15T12:35:52.512-07:002015-03-15T12:35:52.512-07:00But that is what I am curious about. Is there actu...But that is what I am curious about. Is there actually anything to learn in this case? Is this a case of not understanding what COULD happen vs what WOULD happen. <br /><br />They knew what the general conditions were going to be, but variations in the air current/water vapor content ended up with a different result. In these cases, they can only take so much input without specific, precise, immediate measurements, and there will always be natural variabilities (randomness) due to the general "waves" of the weather.ryamkajrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08268910924570439599noreply@blogger.com