tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post8735585192630267819..comments2024-03-29T08:29:55.105-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: The Mystery Tree Fall Near Lake Quinault: Why Did It Happen? Part IICliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger52125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-63503896457652766282018-10-05T22:45:09.939-07:002018-10-05T22:45:09.939-07:00Googled out of curiosity as we have witnessed a si...Googled out of curiosity as we have witnessed a similar tree fall in Pune, India, a week back. A whole bunch of trees have fallen all around the city.<br />Yes, we did have rainfall, but nothing abnormal to cause trees all over the city to fall down. This is highly unusual.Trees communicate through their fungal networks and there has to be a reason for such massive fall spread out in different pockets throughout the city!Abhihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15803375840830716327noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-18534339215872101532018-02-19T21:56:20.483-08:002018-02-19T21:56:20.483-08:00Hi! We live a little less than a half mile from th...Hi! We live a little less than a half mile from the start of the incredible blowdown here on the North Shore of Lake Quinault. I woke up about 1:30 am on January 27th and could hear the wind blowing VERY hard. I heard a huge thump, living here on the North Shore for 32 years we have heard lots of huge trees go down in the forest and I knew that was what I had heard. My husband woke up and heard the wind and we both went to the front door and opened it. The wind was blowing so hard then we heard a loud rumbling sound which I thought was thunder. It probably went on for about 2 or 3 minutes. My husband went out on the porch and he could hear lots of trees going down he thought it was a blowdown or a landslide. We had never heard anything like that! Two of our neighbors heard the same rumble. My husband is a weather fanatic, to say the least, and he is always watching the radar and satellite images to see what is going on. He had looked at the radar about 11:00pm and saw some very heavy rain in the area. Before we went to bed he told me that it looked like a major weather event was going to happen from what he was seeing on the radar. We have a National Weather Service meteorologist in our family who my husband consulted with about it. He asked my husband to look to see if the trees had fallen in the same direction or in a spiral pattern. Since most of the trees blew down towards the south he said that it sounded like a micro-burst. This is from someone who in his job (along with assistants) goes to disaster zones that have been caused by tornadoes and other wind events to determine what more than likely happened. He says that at times it is very difficult to make a judgement on what caused a wind event. . the same as our meteorologist relative. Because the lightning did not show up on the radar would not definitely mean that it did not occur especially since 2 other neighbors also heard what they believed was thunder. I know you are making a judgement from what you have seen in photos, read about it and from your knowledge of weather but as you know there are always different opinions based on identical facts. I think you should come see the site and talk to locals and then make your judgement. Thanks for listening! <br /><br />At the Lake residenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17850946813881807633noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-34429993531777140912018-02-14T23:12:30.144-08:002018-02-14T23:12:30.144-08:00Howdy Cliff, Several years ago I had this one dre...Howdy Cliff, Several years ago I had this one dream about a huge wind event wiped out a bunch of trees. This was around that huge storm we had around 2006. Then I hear about this and whoa I just got my mind blown. KMelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03342517252149389899noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-3758556420866256952018-02-14T07:12:45.382-08:002018-02-14T07:12:45.382-08:00January 27, 2018 5 large fir trees fell in our yar...January 27, 2018 5 large fir trees fell in our yard around 10 AM or so. On the southwest side a valley was opened up by logging which as created 300 x the sustained wind activity. On that Saturday I was upstairs, with the curtains wide open for light, since we had lost power already, the wind when all of a sudden changed direction and came from the east. The house was pelleted with branches and loose debris, I looked up and watched limbs go by at nearly eye level in a two-story home, then in a few seconds, it died down and I was still watching when 5 large fir trees, south-west of the house fell toward us. One took out the shop, the rest laid out in the yard, missing the front porch by a foot or so. We have recent logging activity, high water tables and heavy clay soil. So no brainer, but that wind shift, that I've never experienced before with such intensity. Of course the fall shook the house. We were the only house hit like that in a 2 acre lot community. That snap in direction change was the key, while obviously the trees had become more at risk by loosing their protection. <br />Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16587208175234369492noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-92144290012279587122018-02-13T22:56:52.066-08:002018-02-13T22:56:52.066-08:00Was thinking the same thingWas thinking the same thingAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02521821559136851889noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-58269685090525425342018-02-13T11:27:02.354-08:002018-02-13T11:27:02.354-08:00This is what I was thinking as well!This is what I was thinking as well!Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13104371023419575719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-29752517547479259212018-02-12T15:08:20.938-08:002018-02-12T15:08:20.938-08:00This just in from a friend: Could be the navy pla...This just in from a friend: Could be the navy playing with a new type of weapon technology. (Yipes.)Cheryl Hodgehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18102505808738063473noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-56875294188912937742018-02-12T15:01:21.208-08:002018-02-12T15:01:21.208-08:00Here's an idea: tell me if I'm crazy. We...Here's an idea: tell me if I'm crazy. We know that extremely dry soil conditions can cause a weakening of the roots. The previous summer was a terrible drought in that area. Could this be a combo of an extremely high force of a wind funnel; combined with weak soil that could have made them topple?<br />Cheryl Hodgehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18102505808738063473noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-73017717283730361012018-02-12T10:21:31.990-08:002018-02-12T10:21:31.990-08:00My grandfather believed that it was the UFOs that...My grandfather believed that it was the UFOs that drop the Sasquatch off to do research on the region then they picked them back up. That's why there's no trace of their remains or are able to track their Footprints. Something to think about...Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07968570912465001035noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-2274676621671471862018-02-11T13:26:41.314-08:002018-02-11T13:26:41.314-08:00This phenomenon captured my attention because I ex...This phenomenon captured my attention because I experienced a similar event in the Bavarian Alps during the mid 80s. During a foehn (Chinook wind?), several isolated stands within a nearly continuous forested area were snapped and thrown. Some buddies and I went to check out one of these areas as it began to calm down (don’t do this at home – wait until completely calm!). It was probably less than a quarter the size of the Quinault event, and the 25ish large conifers seemed to have fallen in a more random orientation. <br /><br />I looked for information about foehn winds in that area of Bavaria and there is fair amount available, some in the public domain. This was written clearly enough for a layman (me) to grasp some key concepts while giving meteorologists enough material to judge its merits (link is 125 page pdf): http://acinn.uibk.ac.at/sites/default/files/Vergeiner_Johannes_2004_Diss.pdf<br />“South foehn studies and a new foehn classification scheme in the Wipp and Inn valley” <br /><br />Perhaps embarking on another adventure with a skill set not up to situational demands, I accessed the NEXRAD archive and roughly overlaid some of the Doppler images – doing some scaling in GIMP since the base map I used wasn’t georeferenced. I didn’t check whether the images are unusual for the area, so it is possible what I’m seeing is just noise – my original thought – until I stretched the images to fit the coastline. Using the spectrum width and radial velocity data from the three lowest angle scans 0921-23Z, it sure looks like something was going on. <br /><br />The radial velocity and spectrum width elevation angle 0.38 at 092223Z show distinct features that are somewhat larger but less distinct in both 0.78 elev angle images. In the 0.12 angle images they are less discernible, but still apparent. Unfortunately I don't see a way to attach photos, so hopefully you'll have a chance to check the NEXRAD II data if you haven't already. Look for a "beak" with the tip generally oriented to the SSE.sandy knollerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09029954184661114245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-66360853500132123782018-02-11T09:39:26.788-08:002018-02-11T09:39:26.788-08:00I haven't heard any mention of the fact that m...I haven't heard any mention of the fact that more than 50% of the trees were second growth Hemlocks that uprooted. NPS needs a more extensive survey of the types of trees and method of failer. How many were diseased damaged too. Also, there was over 100 trees downed just across the road. That is not counting the whole area effected. Could be thousands. As someone who worked on the cleanup, there was very few other species than hemlock which have a very shallow root structure and could easily tip in minor, opposing prevailing wind, especially with the amount of ground saturation present. Those Hemlocks provided a lot of collateral damage.unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07572912830457337587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-45879865130355502832018-02-11T06:53:43.668-08:002018-02-11T06:53:43.668-08:00A comment above said: "Also one of the two v...A comment above said: "Also one of the two very large trees that shattered (in the picnic area) was rotted in the center; I could not get close enough to examine the other. In addition, some of the shattered trees were clearly hit by others; others were clearly rotted and weak."<br /><br />This is what you will find when trees fall - they are all sick and weak. The underlying reason is that they have been absorbing toxic levels of background ozone pollution for decades.<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sn1Xy_j48k0Gail Zawackihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01800944469843206253noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-40370610818038433972018-02-10T18:26:57.643-08:002018-02-10T18:26:57.643-08:00Our version of a crop circle? GigglesOur version of a crop circle? GigglesAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11280991927360012717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-43215189124738903252018-02-10T12:00:00.017-08:002018-02-10T12:00:00.017-08:00Snowpack has not been the greatest here in OR, wit...Snowpack has not been the greatest here in OR, with Mount Hood Meadows and others having small bases. However, skiing conditions here have always been a crapshoot, Oregon natives who are avid skiers usually head out to Bend and/or Canada during many winters.Eric Blairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09376653214948517679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-78400027161881529542018-02-10T08:00:50.873-08:002018-02-10T08:00:50.873-08:00Is it too late to start a betting pool? There ar...Is it too late to start a betting pool? There are some pretty wild horses in the race!Bruce Kayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11070247298371179095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-55331402349260111562018-02-09T17:35:03.952-08:002018-02-09T17:35:03.952-08:00Walt D, good point. In my area of responsibility i...Walt D, good point. In my area of responsibility in Northern Minnesota, after a couple years of drought and a heavy insect infestation trees went down in 40 mph winds. We stopped using downed trees to verify. Root balls suggests very wet ground, also weakening. Maybe it wasn't the weather at all but circumstances.<br /><br />So c'mon, Doc, give.jimijrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05575435707603812489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-9926096105706732042018-02-09T15:34:31.504-08:002018-02-09T15:34:31.504-08:00Rebecca -
I agree with you on the changes in tech...Rebecca -<br /><br />I agree with you on the changes in technology since the 80's re: opening dates (I probably saw you up there!) but I was responding to a post that said the current conditions would be "devastating for ski resorts" and pointing out the lack of context. Baker did open Heather Meadows with 30"+ in mid November this year - https://www.seattletimes.com/life/outdoors/for-real-crystal-mountain-ski-area-to-open-wednesday-baker-on-thursday/ (Nov 14, 2017) <br /><br />Cliff updated the 2010 meltout article in 2016 and said this: "...here are the mean melt-out dates for recent decades (again, thanks to Mark Albright). It appears that the melt-out dates are getting progressively later..." and then provided this:<br /><br />1980s: 30 May<br />1990s: 1 June<br />2000s: 2 June<br />2010s: 4 June (thru 2016)<br /><br />I actually think the skiing has been above average this year but yes, if we are basing this off of the last 3 weeks, not great!<br />sunsnow12https://www.blogger.com/profile/16856025812008113046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-29631981701558880342018-02-09T12:21:09.119-08:002018-02-09T12:21:09.119-08:00We walked the fall area this morning. The nature o...We walked the fall area this morning. The nature of the damage needs some clarification.<br />From Part I: "First, how strong did the winds have to be to do such damage? I spoke to Logan Johnson, Meteorologist in Charge, at the NWS Seattle Office. He suggested that to snap off such big trees would take winds of at least 70-80 mph. Maybe more." <br />This comment needs some clarification. The majority of the downed trees have root balls attached, they pulled out at the roots. They were clearly very shallow rooted. Also one of the two very large trees that shattered (in the picnic area) was rotted in the center; I could not get close enough to examine the other. In addition, some of the shattered trees were clearly hit by others; others were clearly rotted and weak.<br />So perhaps we are not talking about quite such high winds.<br />That still leaves the mystery of how local the damage was. <br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13753740995211690997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-58340222705316758412018-02-09T08:11:37.116-08:002018-02-09T08:11:37.116-08:00Late at night, on New Year's Eve, 1995, a narr...Late at night, on New Year's Eve, 1995, a narrow blast of wind came straight out of the west and roared through the forests at the northern edge of La Pine, Oregon. It was about a mile wide and knocked down mature lodgepole pines, snapping them off at their bases. Knocked power out for a week. It came through at the lowest point in the area, which was at an elevation of about 4200 feet.<br /><br />Best guess put forward as to what happened was that the wind was the edge of a jet stream touching down. But do they do that?<br /><br />Also, what was similar to what happened at Lake Quinault, is that it was unusually warm that day in La Pine. It was 60° that afternoon. This country is High Desert and is typically cold. Within a day or two of this, we were into heavy snows.<br /><br />So we are very interested to hear what Sherlock Mass is going to say about it all!Jones From Ellensburghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09112418552806459175noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-14413980985884979672018-02-09T00:01:09.323-08:002018-02-09T00:01:09.323-08:00Wow, so 100’s of trees have mysteriously fallen in...Wow, so 100’s of trees have mysteriously fallen in the middle of the night, and in the background of all this is the military doing daily warfare tests in the area which, it seems, many local people are against for fear of it damaging the environment and wildlife. <br /><br />Thanks for sharing, this is fascinating. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11258467649727538558noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-42696468424358649452018-02-08T21:17:11.513-08:002018-02-08T21:17:11.513-08:00I think S S may have an important clue regarding t...I think S S may have an important clue regarding the Navy exercises.<br /><br />A number of years ago, I was hiking with a group in the Cascades just west of the Leavenworth area. We were walking along a long, narrow lake at about 6,000 ft altitude. Suddenly an A-6 jet swooped down into the canyon, flying on its side, and flew along the lake, scaring the bejesus out of us, then righted itself and accelerated up out of the canyon.<br /><br />If something similar to this occurred, especially at supersonic speed (if possible), the shock wave could have done this.<br /><br />Is there any observation of such activity in the area at the time?Nobodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00839964801773610962noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-11154404717392192072018-02-08T20:51:01.195-08:002018-02-08T20:51:01.195-08:00I just read a Cliff Mass paper (2010) looking at s...I just read a Cliff Mass paper (2010) looking at spring meltout dates in the Cascades back to 1930. He found that meltout was trending five days earlier over that time period, not later,though the difference was statistically insignificant.<br /><br />I can't think of skiing at Crystal as "fabulous" this year, a matter of opinion of course, but they did install a whole lot more snow-making equipment for this season. Quite a few days of operations have been with limited lifts running. Any comparison of opening dates has to be further qualified: Though skiing started in mid-November this year, local areas now open with as little as 16 inches (or less!) on the ground. Back when my spouse and I were involved in area operations (70s-80s), we wanted about 36 inches before opening; we didn't have today's slope grooming capabilities. Rebecca Timsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11893945762947495364noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-81308331751651515782018-02-08T20:49:18.225-08:002018-02-08T20:49:18.225-08:00Bigfoot on a rampage.
That's the only plausibl...Bigfoot on a rampage.<br />That's the only plausible explanation.<br /><br />As Sherlock Holmes would say<br />"When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth"<br />RonnieAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07425307622120685428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-30128354463576444432018-02-08T13:45:39.422-08:002018-02-08T13:45:39.422-08:00Strong gust induced by avalanche from the ridge ab...Strong gust induced by avalanche from the ridge above, itself caused by the warm front which also melted the evidence DMcLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09221601261071061468noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-9983159756740784522018-02-08T11:29:02.273-08:002018-02-08T11:29:02.273-08:00Water supplies are fine if you check the data and ...Water supplies are fine if you check the data and the snowpack info.Qwertyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00429690391444840673noreply@blogger.com