tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post8882250789174187243..comments2024-03-28T23:07:35.632-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: U.S. Numerical Weather Prediction is Falling Further Behind: What is Wrong and How Can It Be Fixed Quickly?Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-49855678639347161492016-07-08T09:26:24.619-07:002016-07-08T09:26:24.619-07:00Cliff, could you post some of the cloud images you...Cliff, could you post some of the cloud images you mentioned in today's KPLU show?the critichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06008263973278814037noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-22656778251952995552016-06-27T14:00:44.963-07:002016-06-27T14:00:44.963-07:00@ Walter Kolczynski ... parameterization
To paraph...@ Walter Kolczynski ... parameterization<br />To paraphrase Von Neumann: With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his beak [trunk in the original, oddity intended here]. Many suspect Von Neumann was cautioning against using too many parameters. Possibly the worst aspect of using too many parameters may be the increasing difficulty of tracing them back to any of the underlying science.Nanoo Visotorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10992892573232232096noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-8854285163598664392016-06-23T18:46:24.110-07:002016-06-23T18:46:24.110-07:00The canaries in the GFS coal mine have been droppi...The canaries in the GFS coal mine have been dropping like flies to warn of this problem for quite some time. Now that it's here, what are we to do but outsource. If this does come about with Panasonic, it will be only be the beginning.drysiderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16316722884391604691noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-41273983099982019632016-06-22T19:49:52.066-07:002016-06-22T19:49:52.066-07:00Thanks Cliff.
My recollection is that several year...Thanks Cliff.<br />My recollection is that several years ago the national political party hostile to science wanted to 'contract out' at least part of the weather forecasting process. Data gathering, modeling, forecasting, computer maintenance ... Don't recall. I'm generally unhappy with this as the govt needs to retain critical functions and knowledge to make far reaching important decisions.<br /><br />My guess is that we've already gone over that waterfall. Is there a practical way to contract with say Panasonic to provide the superior service AND adjust the science and models. AND/OR It seems a performance comparison between the models without preconception is the way to go ... Like fly offs at early stages of future military aircraft development..<br />Dude you are one of our heroes. Best.<br />Bob and JeriAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08725131657663358389noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-88578159594424870302016-06-21T21:12:07.672-07:002016-06-21T21:12:07.672-07:00Cliff,
One comment I'd like to add is, in add...Cliff, <br />One comment I'd like to add is, in addition to improvements in model physics, the forward model used by GSI, The Community Radiative Transfer Model, does a poor<br />job of accurately computing radiances in cloudy and precipitating scenes. This,<br />in turn, results in serious deficiencies in satellite data assimilation. Combined with excessive data thinning, poor QC, and generally slow uptake of new sensors, the observationally driven analyses and forecasts aren't up to snuff compared to competitors. To top it off, funding for satellite data assimilation research at NOAA is drying up rapidly with the end of<br />the SCITECH-II contract, and internal organizational changes. BenBenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15589891329133151375noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-31500166560682522662016-06-21T20:20:56.784-07:002016-06-21T20:20:56.784-07:00You should submit this post as an opinion piece to...You should submit this post as an opinion piece to major news media, like the New York Times. It's likely that very few citizens realize the importance of this issue.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13048479770660311377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-82271102912090542332016-06-21T18:55:20.889-07:002016-06-21T18:55:20.889-07:00Well...Maybe we should just contract with ECWMF. ...Well...Maybe we should just contract with ECWMF. While we're at it hire the French to provide us with nuclear power. Both seem to have it figured out. God Bless America.mjgrotahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10752674147894791628noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-7323816860283737592016-06-21T17:52:14.106-07:002016-06-21T17:52:14.106-07:00Cliff,
I just look at our United States Congress ...Cliff,<br /><br />I just look at our United States Congress for leadership. <br /><br />Then I puke.Rodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07778022817763136336noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-17086532304889141372016-06-21T15:29:54.197-07:002016-06-21T15:29:54.197-07:00I know this is irrelevant to the above discussion,...I know this is irrelevant to the above discussion, but yay! Seattle managed to get over half an inch of rain last night! That's quite an accomplishment, given the recent paucity of precip. Keep it comin'!tracksdc89https://www.blogger.com/profile/13859004679371356481noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-33075556753453178572016-06-21T15:27:05.422-07:002016-06-21T15:27:05.422-07:00Cliff Mass to run the NWS! Except that will never...Cliff Mass to run the NWS! Except that will never happen. Because: politics. Robert Salnickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17236481906016930762noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-81428543941231370292016-06-21T14:55:10.993-07:002016-06-21T14:55:10.993-07:00The US EPA is working with MPAS to use it as the m...The US EPA is working with MPAS to use it as the meteorological driver for its next-generation air quality model. It certainly would be nice to have the NWS as a partner in the development of MPAS! Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05282710513374824381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-38639436396679882832016-06-21T14:35:02.633-07:002016-06-21T14:35:02.633-07:00Cliff, I wish you had been at the Ensemble Users W...Cliff, I wish you had been at the Ensemble Users Workshop last week when we discussed the future configuration of the GEFS. The next GEFS will include stochastic physics (I am testing it myself). We are also currently testing resolution and membership increases (though neither are as aggressive as you would like: TL670 and/or 10-20 additional members). Also, you mention improving DA here, but the EnKF component already uses 80 members and uses stochastic physics (which I'm sure you know, being on the UMAC), so I'm not sure how those are related.<br /><br />As for the model physics, I know there are several things being investigated right now that will hopefully go into production over the next couple years, including a SHOC parameterization scheme and improved microphysics. You are correct that there is a long way to go here.<br /><br />I know your point here is more the culture and policies (which are above my pay grade), but I wanted to chime in with some of the technical stuff.Walterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12291358564055566312noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-38038991943699752622016-06-21T14:09:29.978-07:002016-06-21T14:09:29.978-07:00Sometimes the natural world gives us a "hint&...Sometimes the natural world gives us a "hint"Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13759994750606898555noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-43010751305399224922016-06-21T11:13:13.559-07:002016-06-21T11:13:13.559-07:00.. Like the "hexagonal grid" patterning ..... Like the "hexagonal grid" patterning for basic parameterization, quite a bit.richard583https://www.blogger.com/profile/00415086002282750839noreply@blogger.com