This has been a relatively dry spring, although far from record-breaking.
For example, in Seattle, the precipitation total from March 22 through June 13 was below normal by roughly two inches. However, the 2025 spring rainfall was not even close to the lowest precipitation total on record, with 34 years having less spring rainfall.
Below is the plot of spring precipitation (March 22-June 13) since the 1940s. The trend is up, strongly suggesting that global warming is NOT associated with dry springs at Seattle.
You can see that this year was low, but not even close to the driest year on record.
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The reason is a deep upper-level trough will move over our region later this week, something shown by the European Center forecast for 11 AM on Friday (blue and purple indicate much lower heights than normal at 500 hPa, about 18,000 ft).
Such a trough brings cool, wet weather to our region.
Rain will move in on Thursday and Friday. The 48-hour total ending Thursday at 5 PM is relatively light over Washington.
More rain will follow (the 48 h ending 5 PM Tuesday is shown).
Let me note that no heat waves are expected for the next two weeks, with the temperature being chilly next Friday and Saturday.
Finally, let me note that this spring has not brought serious cold waves like the previous years. Cold waves can damage important crops such as cherries.
The plot of temperatures at Wenatchee (below) illustrates this fact. No major cold excursions!
Without major spring cold waves, the WA State cherry farmers expect an excellent and sustained harvest.
Good news for all cherry lovers (like myself).
Great news! Thanks for the update Cliff
ReplyDeleteJunuary has made its annual appearance. Summer will return on July 5.
ReplyDeleteCliff, the data you shared support your statements, at least within the city of Seattle. This spring has been dry but not record-setting dry, and climate change has not reduced precipitation in Seattle in Spring (or any other time of year, from what I understand).
ReplyDeleteThe bigger picture seems more problematic. Statewide, precipitation has been low and snowpacks are very low due to warm temperatures. And this is the third dry year in a row. A few days of "impressive for this time of year" precipitation are unlikely to turn things around. The WA DoE has declared a drought emergency (defined as <75% normal water supply) in 19 watersheds, and this seems well-founded.
The south sound seems to be somewhat rainshadowed for this event. Is this a random effect or is there a reason for this? Thanks…Chris
ReplyDeleteThe picture is rather worse if you consider even the relatively more recent past:
ReplyDeleteAt SEA, the 74 day period from 04/01/25 - 06/13/25 was the 11th driest on record;
The 64 day period from 04/11/25 - 06/13/25 was the 2nd driest on record;
The 54 day period from 04/21/25 - 06/13/25 was the 4th driest on record;
The 44 day period from 05/01/25 - 06/13/25 was the 6th driest on record;
The 34 day period from 05/11/25 - 06/13/25 was the 12th driest on record;
The 24 day period from 05/21/25 - 06/13/25 was the 6th driest on record;
The 14 day period from 05/31/25 - 06/13/25 was the 2nd driest on record;
The first 2 weeks of June was the driest on record and the first time in the POR that no precipitation was measured. This has been arguably the driest first half of June on record for the entire state and, with soil moisture already especially low, there is very little chance of making up the difference. The dice are now indisputably loaded in favor of a worse than normal wildfire season.
Good to hear that some rain is coming. Everyone who has a lawn or a garden is going to appreciate having their outdoor watering taken care for them by the weather for a bit.
ReplyDeleteAlso, excellent news for our state's cherry crop. Sounds like its going to be a great year for one of our state's finest delicacies.
A dry spring but not the worst. Rain is coming and temperatures will be mild. A promising cherry season for everyone!
ReplyDelete