There have been several stories in the Seattle Times and some local media that have hyped and exaggerated the "drought" over Washington State.
For example, a few days ago, the Seattle Times had a big spread talking about drought for the Yakima River basin:
The lack of rain and snow forced farmers to tear out their apple orchards by the acre. Wine grapes are withering on the vine. Miles-long irrigation canals leak and crumble.
This basin is the face of Washington’s drought. This might be the driest year in recent memory, fresh on the heels of severe droughts last year and the year before..
They had a picture of Lake Keechelus that showed it being completely dry.
Very deceptive. I went up there on Sunday and this is what I saw:
This is not honest journalism.
The truth is that the Yakima Reservoir system is rapidly filling, and Yakima River levels are normal.
Still believe the Seattle Times? Let's look at the actual numbers.
Below is a plot of storage for the entire Yakima system over time, showing average values (red), last year (green), and this year (blue).
This year, we are WAY higher than last year and rapidly refilling.
In fact, the current storage now is about the same as last year, ONE FEBRUARY 1.
What about the water flow in the critical Yakima River? (see below)
The flow is now above normal, and the prediction is for it to stay that way.
The Seattle Times is making all kinds of serious drought claims, with a lot of hints about global warming being the cause.
But is precipitation really declining over time on the eastern slopes of the Cascades, the watershed area for the Yakima Basin?
Let's check, using the official NOAA climate division data.
Below is a plot of October through August precipitation totals on the eastern slopes of the Cascades.
Both the last two years were below normal. No doubt about that. But other years were drier...some much drier.
Importantly, there is no long-term trend toward drier conditions, which is a sign of climate change.
Climate change is not the origin of the last two dry years....it is natural variability.
There is a critical issue that the Seattle Times and certain activists never consider:
Is a drier-than-normal year really a big deal?
For example, if the Yakima Valley region receives more precipitation than it really needs on average, is being down modestly a problem of any significance?
It turns out that the "drought" had very little impact on Yakima Valley agriculture:
- The 2025 Yakima Valley apple crop was large and high-quality, with a record-tying amounts.
- The 2025 Yakima Valley cherry crop was excellent, with a good-sized and high-quality harvest resulting from favorable weather conditions. The cherry season was particularly long this year.
- The 2025 Yakima Valley grape crop is expected to be a "standout vintage" for quality.
Bottom line: the agricultural impacts of the "drought" were very minor for the eastern slopes of the Cascades.
In a future blog, I will take on the Seattle Times' claims about drought on the western side of the Cascades.
But I can't help myself. Here are the latest reservoir levels for Seattle
Precipitation has been a bit above normal over watershed
and reservoir levels are rising rapidly and are almost at normal levels
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The big drought is Seattle Times Climate Lab fundraising; without a donors deluge and they will dry-up.
ReplyDeleteI would hate to see the people who work on the Times' Climate Lab team lose their jobs, but it is difficult to support a team that regularly has their reporting debunked. I for one have learned to take everything that team writes with a big grain of salt. That isn't to say the entire paper is bad. I like and respect much of what the Seattle Times does, and the people who do it. Our region is fortunate to still have a large metropolitan daily newspaper that is fairly and healthy and robust. They do important work, and it deserves recognition and support. The Climate Lab is the one thing that really knocks the Times down a peg.
DeleteI wouldn't ridicule the Seattle Times Climate Lab if the reporters had a scientific background, but last time I checked each reporter has an alternate background that does not instill trust in claims made.
DeleteThanks, Cliff. Under a warmer climate, do you know if we have enough reservoir capacity? If the snow at lower elevations warms earlier in the spring, will we have enough volume to store that extra capacity to last the growing season?
ReplyDeleteHi Cliff, do you expect the Yakima basin to need more reservoir storage under a warmer climate?
ReplyDeleteYes, more reservoir capacity makes sense, particularly as more water falls as rain rather than snow.
Delete“Combined Reservoir Storage” shows about 30% for 8/1/2025 and average about 40%. That would be 75% of average. What gives?
DeleteStopped reading the Times for the same reason I stopped listening to NPR: rampant, never-ending bias leading to misleading if not flat-out "misinformation."
ReplyDeleteYep. NPR is a poor shadow of itself these days. I'm old, so I go back to Bob Simon, and John Ciardi (how I miss his voice and erudition!). Now, when I do rarely tune in, it's another "soft" news story about how hard life is - grievance journalism, I call it. I read the Seattle Times these days for sports coverage, which is really the best part of it, at least to me.
DeleteIf they are completely wrong about the drought, I wonder if they are completely wrong about other things they report on. Do you suppose it's even remotely possible?
ReplyDeleteLolol The professor reminds me of this journalist on a East Coast TV station that nabs scam artist with investigative reporting
ReplyDeleteWho is the journalist you are referring to? Anyone who is helping to bring scam artists to justice deserves to be recognized.
DeleteI live in Yakima and am involved with the wine industry. My brother in Alabama phoned and asked if I had seen the article so I looked it up; what a lot of mis-information. I also had gone across the pass a few days ago and noted the lake level had risen significantly. The stories about suffering grapes et al were, as far as I know, exaggerated; St Michel dropped all its grape contracts a few years ago leaving some growers with excess crop. Wine sales are down and there is a serious glut of high quality California bulk wine available. This last year did feel very dry with little rain, but we've been soaked a bit over the last month. I can only hope for a good snow pack this winter and full reservoirs in the spring. Having said that, winters here have been warmer than we are used to for the last 4 or 5 years, with no chance to make actual ice wine.
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry to hear that your industry is struggling right now. I hope things improve for you soon. If you don't mind my asking, what happened to the excess crop you referred to? I would hate to think it went to waste.
DeleteAI reports 5 reservoirs were 39% full on 8/1/2025; that is 55% of average. That seems pretty low to me and is not reflected in your graphs.
ReplyDeleteno....that is exactly what the numbers show. reservoirs are a little over half as full as they are normally and filling fast
DeleteLooking again, the average for that date on “combined Reservoir Storage” is 35, so the % of normal ==~ 85 instead of 55.
DeleteIts "total capacity" vs average. Total capacity is 1,065,000 acre feet, and max average actual in June is about 972,000 acre feet. On Nov 17 total capacity still 1,065,000 acre feet but the more relevant number is average on that date, about 370,000 acre feet. The actual that date was 197,000 acre feet or about 53% full (using the average, not theoretical max).
DeleteThe photo used is the upper end of the reservoir (looking north) with Matthew Island being green, surround by brown. Gold Creek Pond and the trail to Alaska Lake are just beyond I-90 (see tractor-trailers). {I did a lot of trail work in this area with WTA, so have some familiarity.}
ReplyDeleteParts of central WA were quite dry this summer – not news. The issue is some land owners have planted orchards and vineyards that need water, while the early settlers relied on early season crops. Finally, some grapes were not harvested because they were not needed. The wine industry has a non-drinking problem. There is also an aging-out of some older/smaller producers. That's another story, not climate or weather.
Thanks for setting the record straight Cliff. Their climate change agenda is tiring and dishonest.
ReplyDeleteWhere’s the snow cliff?
ReplyDeleteWow they way they just lie is incredible. And i know they know that most of their readers won't question them. I did notice how the cherries were really good this year. Also saw a lot of Yakima corn in my local store which was tastier than usual.
ReplyDeleteWould you happen to know much about why the glaciers on Mt. Rainier are melting? It’s reportedly lost some height (20 feet?) due to the melting of its ice cap. Do you believe this report Vliff?
ReplyDeleteI heard that too, just recently. Probably a thinner ice cap. I've been up there, I suppose it'll trend thinner until rocks show through. I don't know how long that'll be.
DeleteGlaciers have been retreating long before broad use of fossil fuels
Delete