If the sun feels stronger to you right now, it is not your imagination.
And this stronger sun and longer days can result in spikes of warmth during the month of March in our region.
First, let's consider the average solar radiation in Seattle over the year (below). Late February, March, and April are times of rapidly increasing solar radiation at our latitude.
Of course, there are clouds, which reduce surface warming, but even so, March is a time of rapidly increasing solar radiation reaching the surface, as shown by the observed solar energy in 2019 (below).
Some March days have gotten as high as 80F, with many in the 70s. You will also note that the chances of getting really cold (below 20F) end by March 10th.
So, will you get a taste of this welcome warmth this week? Monday will be the warmest day, with rain and cooler conditions by midweek.
The European Center model is going for 58F on Monday, similar to the UW system.
But the warmth will vary over the region, as shown by the temperature forecast for 4 PM on Monday over Washington State (see below). Temperatures will exceed 55F over central and southern Puget Sound country and in the lower elevations of the Columbia Basin.
Some isolated lucky folks (e.g., near Olympia) will get to 60F.
I am planning a nice long run late Monday afternoon...which should be wonderful
I will be happy to consistently ride without gloves and a thick outer layer that act like parachutes. When it's sunny, early spring temperatures play up by about 5 degrees or so, so as long as I'm wearing a dark layer that soaks up the sun, I can comfortably ride without a jacket and gloves when it's in the mid-upper 50's.
ReplyDeleteThis the first winter I can remember where there was ZERO snowfall. Is that concerning to you Cliff?
ReplyDeleteLittle or no lowland. This has happened several times before.
DeleteThere goes the ski season.
ReplyDeleteWe all had a general idea about the solar radiation but it’s cool to see the actual data. Thank you for sharing this.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, using the same methodology to extend the ENSO-opposition analysis beyond La Niña winters to include all ENSO phases shows that winter 2025–2026 stands out as the most anomalous ENSO-departing winter in the modern lowland Puget Sound record. Ranking winters by the absolute magnitude of the ENSO-opposition index reveals that 2025–2026 is the strongest ENSO-opposed winter at KBLI, KSEA, and KOLM. This exceeds previous notable outliers such as the warm La Niña winters of 1998–1999, 2005–2006, and 2020–2021, as well as cold ENSO-opposed El Niño winters like 1984–1985. The fact that 2025–2026 ranks first across all three major lowland stations indicates that this was not a localized anomaly, but rather a regionally coherent atmospheric pattern that overwhelmed the typical La Niña cooling signal. Overall, when evaluated relative to ENSO state and strength rather than raw temperature alone, winter 2025–2026 emerges as the most strongly ENSO-opposed winter in the post-1977 Puget Sound record.
ReplyDeleteYou do know if March comes in like a lame it goes out like a lion
ReplyDeleteThat is the saying alright. And March has certainly come in like a lamb this year. Now we'll just have to wait and see what the lion will bring at month's end.
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