April 01, 2026

Seattle Times Provides Deceptive and False Information on Washington State Drought

Truth should be important to the Seattle Times. 

Professional integrity and honesty should be a priority.  

Providing the public with accurate information on an important public issue should be paramount.

But when it comes to issues dealing with climate, the Seattle Times has descended into advocacy, hype, and exaggeration, unsupported by facts and actual science.   

Articles written by the Seattle Times Climate Lab, which receives financial support from climate advocacy groups, are the most concerning, as illustrated by the deceptive, unfactual article published yesterday.

The article, How bad is Washington's summer drought going to get?, starts with a large picture of a major reservoir (Lake Keechelus)--see below

The picture shows a completely empty lake, and the legend describes a "depleted Lake Keechelus" and that this total lack of water is a "familiar scene."


Totally deceptive and wrong.  The truth is that the lake is nearly full, as shown by an image total from a WSDOT cam:



Don't believe your eyes?   The official measurements of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation indicate the lake was 95% full two days ago (it is now 96%):

Still not convinced?  Below is a plot of this year's lake level (blue line) versus normal (red line).   

Lake levels are now WAY above normal....in fact, exceeding the normal maximum levels in early summer.  So high, reservoir managers reduced the level a bit to avoid flooding.

So the headline claim of the article was wrong...and they had to know this.

I am hardly warming up regarding the ST tall tales.   Much of the article is factually wrong.

For example, it tells us:

"This summer is expected to be especially hot and dry, too, Mellor pointed out. El Niño conditions are moving in from the tropics."

This is nonsensical.   We are still in a La Niña (see below), and the transition to Neutral and then El Niño conditions will only occur during the summer.

Blue colors indicate temperatures below normal

Even more important, Northwest summer precipitation has very little correlation with El Niño and La Niña--even if it were in place.   

This figure from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, which shows the precipitation anomalies from normal for an El Niño summer, shows this clearly.

Don't believe NOAA and only trust online AI?  Here is what Gemini gave me:
Key Correlations & Current Trends
  • Weak Summer Link: Meteorologists note that El Niño does not have as significant an impact on the region in the spring and summer as it does in winter.
Lack of water for hydropower?

Then the article warns about the lack of water for Seattle hydropower, and particularly the Ross Reservoir.   Turns out both rainfall and snowfall have been relatively healthy in the North Cascades this winter, and the reservoir level is now much higher than the previous year (see below).  I note that the Ross Reservoir almost filled last year (see below).

Seattle's power generation will have sufficient water!


Perhaps the writer of the Seattle Times scare piece should have checked the best long-term forecasts.   

Here is the latest prediction of summer precipitation from the best (European Center).  WETTER THAN NORMAL OVER WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN Washington.  Normal for the rest.


The Seattle Times is failing our community, providing demonstrably false information regarding climate change.   Hyping and exaggerating climate threats.  

Providing such wrong information is hurting our community, resulting in very poor decision-making, including the waste of billions of dollars (e.g., the CCA).






30 comments:

  1. And probably the only response you're going to get from the Seattle Times is complete silence.
    We cancelled our ST subscription in 2017. They just stopped home delivery 2 weeks ago!
    A real measure of incompetence, smh.

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  2. I would love to hear a rebuttal from the Times.... but i doubt they have one that "floats".....

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    1. Their rebuttal is.. "well, that IS a picture of a depleted Lake Keechelus, isn't it? The caption is in fact, completely accurate. We never said it was a recent picture.. you're just assuming that."

      The Seattle Times lost every bit of credibility they ever had years ago. The saddest part is, people still lap this stuff up. What does that say about the average citizen and the future of our society?

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    2. They should have specified when the picture was taken. Except that doing so might have unraveled their entire argument even faster.

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  3. Hmmm... snow pack in the Olympics is at about 40 to 50% of normal. This summer is going to be rough for both salmon and water supply on the Peninsula. We may not have a precipitation drpughtbut we definitely have a snow water equivalent drought.

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  4. According to WA Dept of Ecolgy web site, "Under the law, proceeds from the CCA allowance auctions must be invested in critical climate projects focused on improving clean transportation options — increasing climate resilience in ecosystems and communities — and addressing issues of environmental justice and health inequity in Washington."
    The money will be used to reward constituencies for continued fealty. Everyone pays the tax, but only special people get the benefits.

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  5. nevermind that the ST can't even get the daily forecast correct.

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  6. No big surprise really... but every out & out eyebrow raising lie they print evokes a laugh followed by disgust. Makes sense if that's purpose, unless they actually think people are really, really that amazingly (expletive deleted) gullible. Oh wait! It's Seattle....

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  7. Seattle Times feeble attempt at an April Fools joke? Naaaa, just habitual liars as expected.

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  8. Where can we find a similar blog that puts in plain english what the water outlook is for the urban corridors in Utah/Idaho/Wyoming? I hear Utah is struggling and keep wondering how much of the Pacific Northwest moisture goes down there

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  9. A low snowpack MIGHT mean a better chance at a drought IF we get below normal summer precip and more heat. Not a guarantee but these news outlets are all to eager to clickbait. Interestingly the NOAA CPC forecast for the spring and summer is for a higher probability of below normal precip and above normal temps for the PacNw.. Of course they use a blend of the models including their CFS v2. But, as you said, the ECMWF model is the best bang for the buck. If I was betting I'd be putting my money on the Euro.

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  10. The article focuses on summer drought, but there's no indication that the picture used is clearly taken in the summer. I don't think it's fair to compare lake levels between now and summer.

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  11. Ugghhh...make them stop...PLEASE can we just make them STOP? Misleading and outright LYING to the public is disgraceful and propagandist.
    No science, no pride, no shame at the Seattle Times. Just ugly...

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  12. and the Yakima reservoirs (Keechelus is 1 of 5) have only been higher at this date only 2 times; this out of 100 years of data we have. So we are in top 3% of recorded history for stored water, and they flat out lie. And then we have perhaps the wettest soil in recent history, and the snowpack at 50% will be sufficient. (all this regarding east slope of cascades). Oh, and go look at snowpack up at Harts pass in North cascades, its even higher than normal. I wish we could upload images; the "water level" on April 1 over last 100 years has huge annual swings (so i guess Seattle times might be correct in a year or 2). So that swing is playing out perfectly; when last year the reservoirs were super low.

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  13. and the soil moisture at 4 inches is 101% of normal for most of the state. The fearmongers usually trot that one out when its convenient.

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  14. wow; i looked up Observed streamlow at NWCC.... wish i could paste it...King county etc at 232% of normal and Yakima basin at 296% of normal

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  15. To GloomyGus's point. Snowpack is robust in higher elevations while the majority of snotel stations show depleted SWE numbers in low elevations. So while it may be a warm winter there's lots of water up high. However, how does the lack of low elevation snow effect reservoir levels three months from now. Will the graphs show a rapid decrease months in advance? Will lake levels be what the ST is showing a month or two early? How does that look for late summer watering on the east side. I guess we'll find out! I would definitely say the ST is an alarmist publication.

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  16. Of all the things the Seattle Times Climate Lab has published, this might be the worst yet. Trying to claim that a lake critical for regional water supplies is nearly depleated when its actually nearly full is disingenuous and deceptive, especially when the traffic camera clearly shows otherwise. If the lake were nearly depleated as the Times attempts to claim, wouldn't a dry lakebed be visible instead of a large amount of water? I would certainly think so! Thank you, Professor Mass, for bringing us the science, data, and imagery that shows what is really going on with our region's weather and water supplies!

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  17. You mentioned summer is anticipated to be wetter than normal in western Washington? Is it expected to be both cooler and wetter than normal for July and August? I recognize this was not the point of the post, but now that you’ve mentioned some summer predictions, I can’t help but ask! I need to know: tomatoes or Brussels sprouts for my garden? Hoping you say tomatoes!🍅 🤞

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  18. I chuckle at how the Seattle Times has hated Mass ever since he put the kibosh on their splashy "ocean acidification" scam in 2013, depriving them of a Pulitzer.

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  19. Yesterday, April 2, the Yakima system storage was at 140% of normal, 977,268 versus average year of 697,132 acre feet. And compared to "if full" the reservoirs are now 92% full versus normally 65% this time of year (full is 1065670)

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  20. Yes- if you look carefully at the picture you'll see trees in fall color on the left side of the lake. I'd say the picture was taken, say, in early October.

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    1. i don't think i can paste links but the wsdot dot com /travel / real-time/map/ lets you select cameras and then about 4 or 5 on Lake Keechelus at full level.

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  21. Our abysmal snowpack is indeed a thing. We have had 3 of the past 4 winters this way. Our climate is warming. Why not touch on that aspect in your breakdown?

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    1. Steve...global warming produces a very slow decline in snowpack....large declines have little to do with global warming but is the result of transient changes in weather systems....cliff

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  22. I don't follow the Seattle Times. I like following individual journalists on Twitter and Bluesky better, and reading blogs like this one. More facts and better science, less speculation and sensationalism. This info caught my eye today: "More breaking federal science budget news today as the Trump Administration released its proposed federal budget for Fiscal Year 2027, which starts October 1 of this year. At a macro level, this proposed budget would once again be disastrous for science in general, and atmospheric science in particular, with massive cuts proposed."

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    1. Unfortunately, the global warming religion has corrupted atmospheric science.

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  23. “ Turns out both rainfall and snowfall have been relatively healthy…”

    I don’t know where you come up with the notion that snowfall has been good. It was an absolute abysmal year for skiers. The Cascade snowpack is down 60-70%. This could all lead to a really bad fire season later this year.

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    1. Please read my blog more carefully. I was talking about snowpack in the North Cascades, which is very close to normal. My statement was accurate.

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  24. Selling papers comes first. Truth won't arrive until enough readers are ready to grapple with the truth. It's not a problem unique to the ST.

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