There is a lot of folk wisdom about the current El Nino situation.
The flame that burns twice as bright burns half as long.
Fast ripe, fast rotten.
Up like a rocket, down like a stick.
The higher you climb, the harder you fall.
The media, such as the Seattle Times, have been breathlessly describing the currently developing El Nino, with many applying the unscientific "super" prefix. Some have suggested devastating impacts (see below).
The latest forecasts paint a different picture.
El Nino will develop rapidly this summer/fall but will weaken quickly during the winter.
This rapid decline is important, since the winter is the period with the greatest impact of El Nino on the meteorology of the Northwest.
Let me demonstrate this to you.
The latest forecast of the NOAA CFS model (below) predicts a peak warming of the tropical Pacific in October-November to around 2 °C (major El Nino), followed by a rapid cooling to 1°F (moderate El Nino) by January-February.
My understanding is that the media generally fails to convey the uncertainty in long-range forecasts based on El Nino / La Nina. People hunger for certainty and don't understand probability.
ReplyDeleteThat said, your statement that El Nino will "weaken quickly" brushes over the fact that even a moderate El Nino will still, probabilistically, have a significant effect for most of the winter. Less in February than in November, but still signifcant.
Looking forward for the coming rain the past 2 storms brought a total of 2" or Rain each to Northern Snohomish County and Looking at the current prediction models they show another good soaking. This will help fire danger around the 4th, hopefully most areas get wet also
ReplyDeleteThe department of ecology is relying on this year's drought to be driven by low snow pack regardless of average total rainfall for the year. We could probably have cooler and rainier conditions all summer and they will stay fixated on the fact that our snow melted out about 3 weeks earlier than an average year as the basis for keeping the state under a "drought" declaration. I guess I don't see a few well placed cool/wet systems as moving the needle enough for them to move off their fixation.
ReplyDeleteMy inbox is flooded with ads for survival supplies and food etc since the end is near- per our horrible mass media
ReplyDeleteThank you Cliff. That was what I was hoping, it's more hype than actuality, it looks like. I mean, I'm all for a storm, much like 1985, or 1990 but one can hope/dream right?
ReplyDeleteAnyway, we had enough drama last fall with the atmospheric river in Dec causing flooding and all kinds of inconveniences, such as offices near the green river closing for a couple of days (mine in Kent). Good thing was, 2 extra days off so can't complain on that one detail, but still...
Speaking of storms, miss a good old fashioned Pineapple express storm, with lightning and winds and lots o' rain. One of the most iconic in my mind occurred in the fall of '83. I was at a church weekend conference in Burien when one of those beauties blew through and caused widespread power outages, lots of wind, rain and loss of limbs/trees/branches all over. The church never lost power, but much of the surrounding community did though over much of Saturday night.
The media sure likes to overhype and embellish weather headlines. Remember a few years ago when the media got a hold of the meteorological term weather "bomb" and went crazy with the whole bomb Cyclone thing? You'd think we were getting a Category 5 typhoon for crying out loud! Seems as if any headlines nowadays to do with science or to do with nature has been so "dumbed down" that it is almost comical. It's like mainstream media is going the way of social media silliness where clickbait is King and whatever draws in the views and the clicks (fear mongering and overhyped, excessive use of "super" this and that) is more important than responsible journalism and normal headlines.
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