During the next few days, temperatures will surge upwards west of the Cascades into the low 90s, but a significant smoke intrusion is NOT expected in the west.
This is in contrast to highly deceptive (and incorrect) media reports, such as in the Seattle Times (see below).
In fact, a lot of media outlets are providing such inaccurate information (such as Public Radio Station KUOW:
Currently, surface air quality in the west is excellent (see the proof below). Green dots indicate very clean air.
The most powerful tool for looking at future smoke impacts is the NOAA HRRR smoke model.
Consider the latest forecast run. Below is the predicted low-level smoke concentration for 4 AM tomorrow morning. Minimal smoke over the lowlands.
And even less smoke west of the Cascades on Wednesday morning. If you are living west of the Cascades, you will breathe easily.
This is illustrated by the latest Weather.com forecast for Seattle (below). The Weather.com forecast is generally far more accurate than the National Weather Service.
You want proof? Here is the last large fire map by the USDA Forest Service:
The Cascades act as a barrier for the smoke from the easstern Washington fires or the smoke coming in from Canada. Not easy to move the smoke down to the surface from the east.
Finally, for those worried about wildfire, it appears that there will be significant precipitation over the next week, which is close to the climatologically driest time of the year.
To show this, below is the latest European Center total precipitation forecast over the next 8 days.
Impressive for this time of the year.
To be fair, the text of the article downplays the severity. Typical sensationalism in headline writing.
ReplyDelete“The smoke in the Puget Sound region won’t be as thick as it has been in Eastern Washington, where some communities have recorded unhealthy or hazardous air quality in recent days. Instead, expect the sky to “look a little hazy,” said Logan Howard, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service.
Most of the smoke will remain “a bit elevated keeping air quality from deteriorating too much,” NWS Seattle wrote in an update Monday morning.”
The sun's got a smoky tinge today, but it does seem like it's all upper level. The ground level air quality is pretty good.
ReplyDeleteI find it funny it is being said you are giving bad information by some. I find it to be right on. One thing I will note, the kaiser fire has pushed into timber. However, if will be good to see how the tribes forest, which they manage quite well, fairs in the end. They log, thin and burn the slash.
ReplyDeleteThe SeattleTimes is changing name to the a Juan de fuca inquirer.
ReplyDeleteAgree that we’ve seen less fires in the Cascades so far. Just curious: Do you consider the Little Giant Fire, west of Chiwawa River in Chelan County at almost 500 acres a large fire and in “the Cascades”?
ReplyDeleteI am unclear what is inaccurate with the Seattle Times article in this case. Wildfire smoke is clearly in the area and it's the most we have seen yet this year (I couldn't see Mt Rainier from Ashford today). They clearly state in the article that it is more in the upper atmosphere. AQI predictions tomorrow are from 70-90. What is the issue?
ReplyDeletetheir new article modified the description of the smoke....and removed the silly picture of dense smoke over the lowlands.
DeleteAll I know is that on the coast (Pacific/Roosevelt beach area), it was full on sun, once the sun comes out around 6AM or so, it's beautiful, mid 60's and very pleasant. A light sweater is mostly what you need when on the beach (my 2 sisters and I stayed at good friend's cabin that we've been going to since the mid 70's).
ReplyDeleteDrove home yesterday to hot and dry and perhaps some humidity, low 90's and a hot house.
It'll be hot today, but thankfully, will be at work where they over AC the office so often it's on the cold side while temps bake outside.
I'll drive home mid afternoon, thankfully the AC still works in the car so there is that.
I'll sleep another night in the hot house initially as temps drop back to normal (upper 70's tomorrow). Will enjoy the rain when it comes.