tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post1028527677920679241..comments2024-03-28T23:07:35.632-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: The Future of U.S. Weather Prediction Will Be Decided During the Next MonthCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-10801707213704646382020-01-29T11:13:38.161-08:002020-01-29T11:13:38.161-08:00Suppose that outside-of-NOAA center does indeed pr...Suppose that outside-of-NOAA center does indeed produce the best modeling system in the world, and indeed is given all the resources needed for development and testing.<br /><br />It has still made absolutely no change to the model guidance going to forecasters. Only an operational implementation -- meaning inside NOAA -- can do that. And it has to run on a machine far smaller than was used in development, in operational, near real time, 24x7 mode, not research mode that can tolerate glitches.<br /><br />Further, by placing all the excellence outside of NOAA, there's no path to get back inside. Not even to OAR/ESRL, and certainly not to NWS/EMC.<br /><br />So there's an attractive ivory tower built in some attractive location, that proceeds in splendid academic isolation, developing a wonderful model -- that cannot be used in NOAA operations.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-8206866512831365362020-01-29T04:12:47.776-08:002020-01-29T04:12:47.776-08:00"The problems noted above are the result of p..."The problems noted above are the result of poor organization and management. NOAA and NWS employees are not the problem. If anything, they have been the victims of a deficient organization, working hard to keep a sinking ship afloat"<br /><br />WOW, just wow! As a contractor with 20+ years on a NOAA site, I can say I feel "truer words have never been spoken". If only the managers would listen to what the workers have to say...<br /><br />Thanks for a great post - I keep my fingers crossed that the ship will stay afloat!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-64930345153224763092020-01-28T18:02:26.590-08:002020-01-28T18:02:26.590-08:00Forget Big Blue, go with Cray!Forget Big Blue, go with Cray!JenJenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04807629279146386457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-75120366078229690832020-01-28T10:09:23.303-08:002020-01-28T10:09:23.303-08:00The current administration, if you want to call it...The current administration, if you want to call it that since its for the most part one person, will be gone in 2024 (or sooner but doubtful). However, science might do better with the profit motive and competition that only comes from divorcing itself from government handouts. The only thing the government really excels at is dysfunction and waste. BAMCIShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05285865892838328830noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-2529142044046860372020-01-28T08:00:49.156-08:002020-01-28T08:00:49.156-08:00" to make any sense in the current administr..."<em> to make any sense in the current administration?</em>"<br /><br />Did the current administration make the decisions that have led to the issues that are explained in this post?<br /><br />I note the following:<br />"<em>During the next month, the RFP (request for proposals) for EPIC will be released by NOAA.</em>"<br /><br />This sounds as though the "current administration" is aware of and looking to improve.<br />I've no personal knowledge, just reading what is in the post. John F. Hultquisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02405080162099143163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-28422027935344035472020-01-28T07:02:41.365-08:002020-01-28T07:02:41.365-08:00One neglected area where NOAA can blow the pants o...One neglected area where NOAA can blow the pants off other countries is in the area of statistical post-processing. We need to develop a Super MOS system.<br /><br />Unfortunately, the powers that be still don't realize a good MOS system will handily beat any kind of raw or ensemble NWP output. The powers that be also don't realize that continually tweaking an NWP model ruins the MOS. So here's the strategy:<br /><br />1) Take the latest & greatest three NWP models, freeze them, and run them retroactively on the last 15 years of data.<br />2) Have MDL create MOS equations for each NWP model.<br />3) The official Super MOS forecast is a consensus of the 3 individual MOS forecasts.<br />4) When a new NWP model comes along, freeze it, run it retroactively on the last 15 years of data, develop a MOS system for that NWP model, and add it to the consensus mix.<br />5) Only when an old NWP model fails to contribute predictive skill to the consensus mix should that old NWP model be retired.<br />6) If NCEP decides to tweak an existing NWP model then continue to run the frozen version concurrently in the background so that the stable MOS forecasts can still be produced.<br /><br />The numerical forecasts produced from this system is guaranteed to beat anything else out there. Running new NWP models retroactively on a large 15 year historical dataset allows reliable single-station equations to be developed instead of those for large regions. Research has shown that NOAA screws up by retiring old NWP models too early even though their well developed MOS systems add predictive information to a consensus mix.<br /><br />No other country has a Super MOS system like this. We could be the first. I wanted to do this 20 years ago in a private venture with my colleagues from Penn State but ended up pursuing a different venture.Bob Vislockynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-68539144383229684252020-01-28T06:58:04.174-08:002020-01-28T06:58:04.174-08:00I like the EPIC recommendation, but would like to ...I like the EPIC recommendation, but would like to point out that even the “vaunted” ECMWF model has some serious issues. I noticed last summer (2019) at least a couple of times the ECMWF showed development of an intense tropical storm to near hurricane strength OVER LAND in the western bulge of Africa. The GFS-FV3 correctly showed only a weak low pressure system in both cases. I also remember seeing the ECMWF develop a weak tropical storm OVER LAND in South Texas/Northern Mexico once last summer as well. Needless to say, no other models showed intensification over land.Bryan - oz4casterhttps://oz4caster.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-28309642556632942752020-01-28T04:31:48.211-08:002020-01-28T04:31:48.211-08:00Ignoring 1500 papers on solar forcing of the total...Ignoring 1500 papers on solar forcing of the total atmospheric vertical column isn't helping either.Ben Davidsonhttp://spaceweathernews.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-12411577789806113222020-01-27T17:12:37.281-08:002020-01-27T17:12:37.281-08:00Why would anyone expect scientific policy-making, ...Why would anyone expect scientific policy-making, including allocation of resources for scientific projects, to make any sense in the current administration? At least we can be thankful we have a new U.S. Space Force military organization. Perhaps we can find a way to weaponize our weather satellites.MAC in Bellinghamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00951163853106956325noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-58179850612042396732020-01-27T12:27:48.851-08:002020-01-27T12:27:48.851-08:00Cliff (and you) get it right. The intentions and h...Cliff (and you) get it right. The intentions and hard work are all there, but the results are typical of a bloated federal organization. It is always about leadership.David H Myhillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08697107913507384509noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-53644205163970339872020-01-27T12:24:38.011-08:002020-01-27T12:24:38.011-08:00Possibly because NOAA has focused on selling clima...Possibly because NOAA has focused on selling climate hysteria instead of their mission on providing accurate weather forecasts.<br /><br />https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/15/while-noaa-nasa-claims-2019-as-the-second-warmest-year-ever-other-data-shows-2019-cooler-than-2005-for-usa/<br /><br />https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/03/13/ca-sea-level-rise-alarmist-study-ignores-30-years-of-noaa-data-with-no-coastal-sea-level-rise-acceleration/<br /><br />https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/06/25/nyt-noaa-may-be-stripped-of-climate-mission/<br /><br />https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/02/20/noaa-caught-cooking-the-books-again-this-time-by-erasing-a-record-cold-snap/<br /><br />Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02059221822159483655noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-58876785992732996692020-01-27T12:23:55.705-08:002020-01-27T12:23:55.705-08:00Cliff runs into the deep state. It is not really s...Cliff runs into the deep state. It is not really shocking to anyone that a government organization decides to ignore superior work in another organization (whether private or government) in order to grow their own budget. They want it in-house. <br /><br />NOAA, like all government organizations, exists primarily as a jobs program. It exists for itself.<br /><br />IF all we cared about was good predictions, we would give accuweather or the weather channel a $200 million dollar bonus for whichever one got it right the most times each year. <br /><br />But, that isn't the reason for NOAA. David H Myhillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08697107913507384509noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-57196489537863136992020-01-27T12:16:50.238-08:002020-01-27T12:16:50.238-08:00Truer words have never been saidTruer words have never been saidCraignoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-9223690585946730062020-01-27T11:25:58.590-08:002020-01-27T11:25:58.590-08:00Sidebar to all of the complex and thoughtful point...Sidebar to all of the complex and thoughtful points raised by Cliff: When it comes to severe local convection, the NWS, both at the SPC and in most of its local WFOs remains the world leader in short and medium range forecasting. Much of this is due to the excellent training programs in NWS and, as in the military, more "combat experience" in pattern recognition. Yes, this is only tangentially related to the blog content but, then again, it's evidence that NWS meteorologists often rise above the modeling deficiencies in the mesoscale. We can be thankful for that.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05438920646734169548noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-84787372699880327192020-01-27T08:23:52.725-08:002020-01-27T08:23:52.725-08:00Hi Cliff. One reason, in my view, is that they ex...Hi Cliff. One reason, in my view, is that they excluded RAMS and associated expertise, in advancing weather prediction. Brazil has used BRAMS successfully yet leadership at NOAA has ignored this capability. This includes when WRF was developed. As you are perhaps aware, in cases where NAM and RAMS (later run in house at WSFOs) were compared, RAMS most of the time was more skillful. I have not seen such comparisons done recently as I assume NWS were discouraged or prevented from using RAMS.<br /><br />On the larger scale, Roni Avissar and Bob Walko have developed OLAM yet to my knowledge their expertise and knowledge have not been utilized by the NOAA. <br /><br />Together, the failure to utilize expertise and model development of RAMS, BRAMS and OLAM is an example of the lack of openness by NOAA leadership.<br /><br />Best Regards<br /><br />RogerRogerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13577315490356687237noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-3662683921045856642020-01-27T08:18:23.244-08:002020-01-27T08:18:23.244-08:00The HRRR is a generally a success, but some Europe...The HRRR is a generally a success, but some European and Asian countries run operational models at comparable or higher resolution, often as an ensemble. Granted, they have a smaller geographic region to cover, but nevertheless, the US lags in this area as well. Jim Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-82986344004078023332020-01-26T22:15:17.967-08:002020-01-26T22:15:17.967-08:00Cliff, Good blog and please keep us posted! I rea...Cliff, Good blog and please keep us posted! I really want NOAA to make a bold move to take the U.S. to number one.Sharonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01122154083786146743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-90661053585412639782020-01-26T21:36:49.150-08:002020-01-26T21:36:49.150-08:00This is fascinating! Q about the RFP: Who's w...This is fascinating! Q about the RFP: Who's written the scope, and can the public see it?<br /><br />You have written often about the need for more (and better) observation data ...blind spots, as it were - like the coast in Oregon. Rigorous science thrives on feedback, testing ...proof. Is more observation (a robust mix) a part of this?<br /><br />Very important matter... exciting.GlacierBakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14691372693124586046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-70475253877861187512020-01-26T18:09:11.874-08:002020-01-26T18:09:11.874-08:00Cliff
Thanks for tracking this issue for us. I ...Cliff<br /> Thanks for tracking this issue for us. I don't know of anyone else doing so in a public forum. Please keep us posted with how this situation evolves.<br /> <br />For example:<br />- What approach the NOAA RPF takes once it is published, <br />- Timeline and characteristics for expected outcomes stated in the RFP<br />- Your take on how the RFP aligns with future prospects.<br /><br />I thought that NOAA computer resources had just tripled in the last few years. Are you saying that even after recent upgrades they are still woefully deficient?<br /><br />In presentations to farmer groups last few weeks I've been pointing out some of the good news with respect to numerical weather monitoring in recent years:<br /><br />1. New GOES East and West platforms becoming operational in 2018 with 5x scan speed, 4x resolution, 3x wavelength bands than previous generation.<br /><br />2. COSMIC 2 satellite fleet launches in mid-2019 which when fully operational will lead to more accurate satellite monitoring of temperature, RH, air pressure and 10x the number of daily observations in the tropical belt.<br /><br />3. Upgrade to polarized dopper rain radar system from 2010-2013 providing more detailed information on type and rate of precipitation.<br /><br />4. And as you noted, transition in 2019 to FV3-GFS, with higher horizontal and vertical resolution planned for 2020.<br /><br />5. Continued progress in gridded weather databases such as URMA and NDFD, and incremental improvement on forecast accuracy. Tools like DAYMET for gridded climatic values and GDAS to supplement URMA.<br /><br />6. On the negative side, I have to agree that organization within the NOAA websites and GFS documentation is poor. Wither stuff does not exist or it is so difficult to find that you never find it, in which case it effectively does not exist.<br /><br />Note I am not a professional meteorologist, just a farm advisor who depends on hourly weather data observations and forecasts to track crop and pest development, fieldwork and spray conditions etc.<br /><br />So I am interested to hear if you think my enthusiasm about the developments above is misplaced.<br /><br />And thanks for not beating on the hardworking, underfunded folks at NOAA. Even from my outsider perspective, it is apparent that there are problems with funding and direction, due in part to supervision by politicians who do not appreciate the importance of the weather enterprise across many areas (including national security), and that NOAA staff competence and dedication are not the problem.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11868714546837743497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-65682530101290426602020-01-26T17:42:50.602-08:002020-01-26T17:42:50.602-08:00Is this a decision that can be made without involv...Is this a decision that can be made without involving federal politicians? They are all pretty much busy right now. Trials. Plagues. Re-elections. Unfortunate passings of major sports celebrities. All of which are significantly more important than the actual day to day of governance. BAMCIShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05285865892838328830noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-55458961771159566522020-01-26T16:17:23.825-08:002020-01-26T16:17:23.825-08:00Assuming that those in positions of authority make...Assuming that those in positions of authority make the decision to move forward with EPIC, what sort of timeline would we be looking at to see results?Dion Ghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05413543353353174264noreply@blogger.com