tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post1070730514189553778..comments2024-03-29T08:29:55.105-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Why the Wine Country Fires Was a Severe Weather Event and Not Climate ChangeCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger25125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-78458647987401624492017-12-06T17:10:14.902-08:002017-12-06T17:10:14.902-08:00So it is over-population and poor agro practices, ...So it is over-population and poor agro practices, along with human error in electrical infrastructure and poor urban and suburban planning. These do all tend to lead to an impacts on the environment that create a perfect vortex for the conditions that may cause those wind and temperature conversions. LittleGreenBaghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06081700826947010899noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-7942538159305786272017-11-05T09:43:50.145-08:002017-11-05T09:43:50.145-08:00Time was when your cult's priests would piousl...Time was when your cult's priests would piously intone that weather and climate are different. Now your cult has erased any distinction, and then calls anyone who notices a heretic ... er, "denialist."Placeholderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02967627809480888708noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-40385395585322857512017-11-03T16:55:38.797-07:002017-11-03T16:55:38.797-07:00In my opinion, your statement that "global wa...In my opinion, your statement that "global warming can't be to blame" is overly strong. Keep in mind that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, and to me it seems like, at most, you've tried to demonstrate the former. At most one could conclude is that "global warming may not be to blame". Also, I don't agree with some of the items you mentioned, such as "Climate models do not suggest massive increases of rainfall over northern California under global warming". Well, the National Climate Assessment (NCA4) would seem to disagree somewhat with that:<br />https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/7/<br />which shows their climate model resulting in greater winter rainfall and lesser summer rainfall; while that does not mean "massive increases in rainfall," it does line up with what happened in California this past winter and this summer. And I don't think it is too subtle to see the increased fire risk in wetter winters and drier summers.<br />Another point worth emphasizing, which is a statistical subtlety that I think is often lost in climate discussions, is that small changes to the mean of a statistical distribution can result in much larger changes in the frequency of extremes, a fact relevant to looking at extreme events like these fires. A seemingly small change in the expected rainfall, say 10%, could potentially result in a much higher increase in the rate of massive fires.<br />The statistics of large-scale fires are further exaggerated by the critical nature of fires: below a critical density of combustibles, fires virtually cannot spread. Beyond that critical threshold, the expected scale of a fire rises dramatically.<br />I'm not saying that "for sure global warming caused the fire," but rather the subtle details of climate change could have contributed. Now they very well may have lowered the risk of fires somewhere else; it's very possible. But to conclude that climate change had no effect seems like over-stepping to me. NIckChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04536141542944819627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-40383879633599011342017-11-02T14:37:00.850-07:002017-11-02T14:37:00.850-07:00Don't fret Place Slipper. You're still m...Don't fret Place Slipper. You're still my favourite but I must say, Jim is kinda cuteBruce Kayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11070247298371179095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-47647099091871768052017-11-02T12:36:29.966-07:002017-11-02T12:36:29.966-07:00Earthwater... very poor article and the "scie...Earthwater... very poor article and the "scientists" said very little. Can you tell me where I got the science wrong. Can you tell me one error I have made?..cliff massCliff Mass Weather Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-39604651292808733552017-11-02T11:14:36.387-07:002017-11-02T11:14:36.387-07:00Bruce Kay, now your cult demands that the media pr...Bruce Kay, now your cult demands that the media preach your doctrine. The only difference between you people and the medieval Catholic Church is that you don't yet have the power you seek.Placeholderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02967627809480888708noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-75034046165895252992017-11-02T08:12:36.179-07:002017-11-02T08:12:36.179-07:00Plenty of line scientists disagree with you Cliff...Plenty of line scientists disagree with you Cliff. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-see-climate-change-in-californias-wildfires/Earthwaterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13853537651619221635noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-84106887957788862042017-11-02T07:58:01.901-07:002017-11-02T07:58:01.901-07:00jimijr has it right:
"Climate is what you ex...jimijr has it right:<br /><br />"Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get."<br /><br />Ask any aviator.saberjimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13803621046836974188noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-56477423899439266962017-11-02T06:57:30.174-07:002017-11-02T06:57:30.174-07:00Stephen Fry,
Professor Jaffe and I are f...Stephen Fry,<br /> Professor Jaffe and I are friend and talk about these issues all the time. I don't think we disagree on the science. Please tell me what I got wrong. What technical issue have I made a mistake on? I will be happy to respond to you in a constructive, respectful way. ..cliff massCliff Mass Weather Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-26449870477969427132017-11-01T21:46:22.454-07:002017-11-01T21:46:22.454-07:00I challenge Prof. Cliff Mass to debate UW Prof. Da...I challenge Prof. Cliff Mass to debate UW Prof. Dan Jaffe about whether a multitude of weather events (around the world) occurred, during the past 50 years, which were likely at least partially caused by human-caused global warming. I prefer a refereed debate, held perhaps at UW's Meany Hall. The winner is awarded a trophy, and the loser agrees to not present, post or publish anything about climate change or global warming for one year.Stephen Fryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950234135801092922noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-86350779783759495032017-11-01T16:32:15.093-07:002017-11-01T16:32:15.093-07:00So many people seem not to know the difference bet...So many people seem not to know the difference between weather and climate. Whatever happens, it will always be a weather event when it does.jimijrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05575435707603812489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-17036475699656010342017-10-31T23:24:19.173-07:002017-10-31T23:24:19.173-07:00No Jim Steele, I mean what I said - no need for yo...No Jim Steele, I mean what I said - no need for you to infer anything else. The 2 headline examples used to preface the entire blog argument that there exists an abundance of hyperbolized hysteria about any single fire events caused by global warming is not substantiated by the actual articles. Neither the cited claims of Hillary Clinton or the article authors spend much energy invoking any single fire events, no matter what the reader might think from the fairly routine headlines.<br /><br />I don't doubt that somewhere out there in pop media land someone could find examples of what Cliff is getting at, but these two simply are not that. From what I can tell, they are not the outliers either. These two articles are fairly representative of how the California fires are portrayed, at least by respected sources, in a context of climate change. There is no great stretching of any truth and great pains are taken to illustrate the great complexity of contributing factors and inherent uncertainty that that implies, which hardly rates as your claim of "climate extremism' now does it? <br /><br />Unless of course this one defining statement is what you find extreme:<br /><br />""Whether climate change is a contributing factor to any single fire in California is almost beside the point. By now we know it does contribute to fires and will exacerbate many more extreme events, as climate scientists have long predicted, steadily increasing costs, damage, and deaths."<br /><br />If there is one repeated error in the mainstream media narrative it is the general absence of this message that the subtle hints detected now have implications for the future. No there is hardly any evidence of global warming as a substantive cause of these fires at this time. What is important is that the tiny contribution that is detectable today is a warning of what is coming down the pipe. Whatever we see today, be it fires, sea level, rain or drought is peanuts compared to what we will hand off to our kids.Bruce Kayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11070247298371179095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-85069093058793843602017-10-31T19:00:47.480-07:002017-10-31T19:00:47.480-07:00Interesting. Reminds me of studying at the U.W. in...Interesting. Reminds me of studying at the U.W. in 2005, and learning about the air pollution created in China, that makes its way in the upper atmosphere from China to us. We were taught to do research and look for facts and the truth. Thank you for shedding light on the truth here. Icarushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08952600930551974753noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-9508897607471210242017-10-31T18:45:33.985-07:002017-10-31T18:45:33.985-07:00Bruce you are trying to cover for blatant climate ...Bruce you are trying to cover for blatant climate demagoguery. After carefully reading and noting what is omitted in WAPO and other media hype, we find numerous politicians and journalists pushing a total misconception that climate change is making fires worse, or making the fire season longer, or fires more intense, exacerbate, etc etc<br /><br />But the "tell" of their intentions is they ignore or down play what forest ecology research shows. There are no details about fire history with more fires in the past, or that fire suppression caused fuel build ups, and poor landscape management that exacerbated the problem, and how increasing populations lead to increasing human started fires that start with less dryness. <br /><br />What must be read is forest and fire ecology research such as http://www.pnas.org/content/114/11/2946.full.pdf <br /><br />"In a 2017 paper researchers reported that across the USA from 1992 to 2012, “human-caused fire season was three times longer than the lightning-caused fire season and added an average of 40,000 wildfires per year across the United States. Human-started wildfires disproportionally occurred where fuel moisture was higher.” Furthermore “Human-started wildfires were dominant (>80% of ignitions) in over 5.1 million km2, the vast majority of the United States, whereas lightning-started fires were dominant in only 0.7 million km2.” <br /><br /><br />If the climate demagogues were sincerely trying address the causes and increased intensity of fires they would address the real problems, those real problems would be in the headlines, but they seldom offer more than lip service to critical factors to couch their climate extremism<br />Jim Steelehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-3541187922106537122017-10-31T15:29:51.970-07:002017-10-31T15:29:51.970-07:00Anne - "and who knows how many stronger storm...Anne - "and who knows how many stronger storms before records were kept and before humans were around."<br /><br />Of course there were thousands, perhaps millions of stronger storms! We've been around a few decades and we think we're so smart. We know NOTHING. John K.https://www.blogger.com/profile/03575682658318674003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-49859410396810860282017-10-31T15:16:19.638-07:002017-10-31T15:16:19.638-07:00Cliff - Glad I found a typo, and your analysis doe...Cliff - Glad I found a typo, and your analysis does make more sense now, though I would argue that your assumption that these fires relied only on dry grass/brush is false. I saw lots of video footage and photos of burning trees. The dryness of the trees is much more closely aligned with the WFAS index I linked to than the 10-hr fuels you reference. The WFAS index shows drier fuels compares to prior years, which is possibly linked to climate change and the very warm summer in CAAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-76793109416921748012017-10-31T13:27:44.318-07:002017-10-31T13:27:44.318-07:00Yes, writers of headlines are notorious for, well,...Yes, writers of headlines are notorious for, well, writing attention grabbing headlines of course. There is an old saying that goes something like this:<br /><br />READ BEYOND THE HEADLINES<br /><br /><br />The listed headline regarding Clinton is from a WP article that essentially agrees with much that Cliff Mass has detailed about the recent northern California event. Wet spring, dry summer, lotsa bush etc. It then expands into a more generalized theme of state wide trends:<br /><br />"How might climate change overlap with this? It’s tempting to cherry-pick data that suggests a role for climate change that’s hard to prove. We do know, however, that some of what the state experienced this year lines up with what climate models would predict."<br /><br /><br />The article in question and the statements by Clinton are more focused on fire trends, western states wide and over considerable time. The association of this trend of fires to climate change is succinctly summarized in the the following sentence:<br /><br /><br />"The key word there is exacerbating. Clinton wasn’t saying the fires were caused by climate change, just that climate change may have made them worse."<br /><br />An examination of the other headline mentioned (from MIT) shows another equally nuanced framing, again aligned with Cliffs own observations, that has to do with statewide or global fire and climate trends, not this single event, wisely predicated by language such as:<br /><br />"Whether climate change is a contributing factor to any single fire in California is almost beside the point. By now we know it does contribute to fires and will exacerbate many more extreme events, as climate scientists have long predicted, steadily increasing costs, damage, and deaths."<br /><br />Again, very much aligned with what Cliff himself often says - steadily increasing climate change effects and associated costs, likely becoming catastrophically beyond anything of the current norm, not now but off in the future.<br /><br /><br />I won't burden this blog with any more cut and paste evidence, suffice to say that if you fully read the articles yourself - which isn't easy, no links being provided - you will see what I mean. Language must be fully utilized, if one is interested in something more than the inherent deception of Trump tweets. In this case, as with most, you really need to<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /> READ BEYOND THE HEADLINES. <br /><br /><br />Bruce Kayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11070247298371179095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-11314918209498526992017-10-31T12:24:31.565-07:002017-10-31T12:24:31.565-07:00The media hysteria for blaming climate change for ...The media hysteria for blaming climate change for every fire, hurricane and flood needs to stop. I understand they want ratings and to sell newspapers but they either lack the knowledge to make such claims or they're not being objective when talking to sources, ie, they tend to get their information from biased climate change activists. Speculation isn't scientific fact and it's so easy to blame every major weather event on climate change but we have to remember that the strongest storm ever recorded was almost 40 years ago (Typhoon Tip) and who knows how many stronger storms before records were kept and before humans were around. AnneScotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17468671295352184752noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-6040883112021932062017-10-31T11:50:15.357-07:002017-10-31T11:50:15.357-07:00Great article.
I have lived in SoCal nearly all m...Great article.<br /><br />I have lived in SoCal nearly all my life and these wind events (Santa Anas) are quite common in fall and winter here, with the fall events being associated with many of our most destructive fires. <br /><br />I note Cliff mentions that the inland air needs to be relatively cool to initiate the wind event. I have also read that if that inland air is insufficiently cool, the offshore flow may still heat up the coastal areas but there will not be as much wind. <br /><br />My gut feeling in SoCal vs. 50 years ago is that the latter type heat events are more common now but the Santa Ana type events are less common. Last week's World Series heat was a Santa Ana event. It was 85F with strong winds at 6AM on Oct. 24 where I live near the Verdugo Mountains. While a few areas like mine had low temps over 80F, many other areas in SoCal had low temps near 70F even though the whole region was 100-106F during the day. TonyChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15636567211884966025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-74224943017740896092017-10-31T09:06:12.590-07:002017-10-31T09:06:12.590-07:00MUCH RESPECT for posting the truth! I'm sure t...MUCH RESPECT for posting the truth! I'm sure that it isn't always helpful to the career.Paulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14973405821959168731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-26101788668085834042017-10-31T09:04:53.627-07:002017-10-31T09:04:53.627-07:00Jeff.... it WAS fuel moisture, so I think the anal...Jeff.... it WAS fuel moisture, so I think the analysis is fine. Typo in the text but the figure was correct..Fixed...cliffCliff Mass Weather Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-80399906574170331442017-10-31T09:01:46.735-07:002017-10-31T09:01:46.735-07:00Very good analogy! Well thought out and presented ...Very good analogy! Well thought out and presented with, as Jack Webb always liked to say: "Just the facts"! Sadly, those who are given to blame global warming (or the now more prevalent global climate change meme) are willfully not seeing the forest for the trees. Thanks Cliff for once again presenting a level headed answer to what was a truly devastating disaster. Hopefully it will not go unheeded.fullcirclethinkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03513900562494970293noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-82170255720842291422017-10-31T08:41:13.825-07:002017-10-31T08:41:13.825-07:00Cliff - using soil moisture to assess whether fuel...Cliff - using soil moisture to assess whether fuels were dry is unfair. You can have dry soils with wet vegetative and vice versa. A quick search online turned up the National Fuel Moisture Database, which measures the moisture in the local vegetation. 2017 moisture was indeed much lower than previous summers likely due to the very warm conditions. Here is a table for a location near the fire region http://www.wfas.net/nfmd/public/site.php?site_fuel=Trough%20-%20Old%20Growth&gacc=NOCC&state=CA&grup=Mendocino%20NF&sitefuel=site&display_type=Table%20Only%20Bi<br /><br />I agree that the wind event can not be attributed to climate change, but think the antecedent conditions that resulted in the explosive fire growth and behavior can to some extent. Yes, infrastructure and fire mismanagement were a bigger factor thoughAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-26686477328977991152017-10-31T01:30:43.285-07:002017-10-31T01:30:43.285-07:00You rock! Thanks for breaking it down and explaini...You rock! Thanks for breaking it down and explaining exactly why you think it's such a bad idea that we attribute this tragedy to climate change. Aren't we lucky too that KNKX had the wisdom and vision to bring you on. Kuow is becoming such a downer. They can't even honor free speech. They have to apologize anytime they give someone's POV airing that dares to stray beyond a very narrow perspective and offend a few people. tisk tisk. More pablum please. but I digress :-) bottom line - it really does have much to do with free and critical thinking and the forum to communicate those thoughts for the greater good. Thanks! Northgate Nanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10109190697465581487noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-56083267868819476752017-10-30T22:26:32.212-07:002017-10-30T22:26:32.212-07:00When will we know that weather is from climate cha...When will we know that weather is from climate change? LJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06100924681436483604noreply@blogger.com