tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post2804801183054743222..comments2024-03-28T22:29:15.590-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Regional Climate Prediction: A Crucial Technology for the 21st CenturyCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-9114632353677438872015-09-20T14:57:17.105-07:002015-09-20T14:57:17.105-07:00Q. Is this prediction 50 years from now or 100 or....Q. Is this prediction 50 years from now or 100 or...?<br />Q. What impact will all the cold water melt have from Antartica, the Arctic, Greenland, etc..<br />Q. Considering the significant impact of the recent BLOB and El Nin'o, how will the oceans respond and impact these models.<br />Q. Are there feedback loops in the atmosphere - oceans, that we might not be considering.<br />Q. How much of this warming is a natural post glaciation cycle.<br />Q. With a concerted effort to mitigate the negatives, what positives might there be from climate warming.<br />Q. When dealing with climate change what unanticipated or anticipated consequences might there be from human intervention that may backfire on us.Gpacharliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07899629492778221889noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-61028888691401774282015-09-19T23:39:30.958-07:002015-09-19T23:39:30.958-07:00Fullcirclethinker, what you say is true, IF you ig...Fullcirclethinker, what you say is true, IF you ignore time scales. For all reasonable intents and purposes, the carbon that we burn now has been out of circulation for so long (200 million years or more), we can call it new carbon with regards to the global carbon budget. That is, after all, why we call them "fossil" fuels. Furthermore, you are absolutely incorrect in you assertion that the sun is rarely considered with regards to global climate change theory. Every GCM model include solar forcing. They must. They do. I don't know here you're getting the idea that solar inputs are ignored. Who is telling you that? Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11455128157120463239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-23059174462244154652015-09-19T12:11:56.762-07:002015-09-19T12:11:56.762-07:00Unknown: If what you say is true, then it is also ...Unknown: If what you say is true, then it is also true that coal and oil aren't creating new carbon either. According to your theory regarding humans merely exchanging carbon and not creating any new carbon, so it must be with coal and oil in that the carbon contained within the coal and oil already exists, simply waiting to be re-released into the atmosphere, much in the same way that trees store up carbon and then re-release it into the atmosphere when burned in a wood stove or forest fire. Carbon isn't created out of thin air. It must exist in order to exist. As for the sun: it is rare for those who adhere to the global warming / global climate change theory to include the number one cause of heating being the sun. Finally, it seems to me that we as a race of people think more highly of ourselves than we ought, in that we can be so powerful as to bring down a planet that existed long before we came along and likely will exist long after we are gone.fullcirclethinkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03513900562494970293noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-80955545244759303342015-09-18T14:44:10.072-07:002015-09-18T14:44:10.072-07:00Judie, what you fail to realize is that humans are...Judie, what you fail to realize is that humans are not contributing new carbon to the system when they exhale. We are merely recycling the carbon that is already a part of the global carbon budget. If you take a dollar and hand it to your friend and she hands it back to you, and you do that ten times, back and forth with the same dollar, you don't each have 10 dollars! Similarly, all we are doing is handing carbon back and forth between plants and animals when plants photosynthesize and humans exhale. Same carbon. Not new carbon. Burning fossil fuels is different in that we are introducing carbon to the system that has been sequestered for 200 million+ years (in other words we are adding to global the carbon budget when we burn coal, oil and gas). Finally, no one is ignoring the sun, I'm not sure where you get that idea. Every climate model has solar inputs as a forcing function. Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11455128157120463239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-35062852268670447692015-09-18T14:28:59.349-07:002015-09-18T14:28:59.349-07:00I am a senior research engineer with a large aeros...I am a senior research engineer with a large aerospace company. The only way I can trust computational predications is if they are bounded by test data. Two examples are the wing test failures for both the Airbus 380 and the Boeing 787.<br /><br />Our models are exceedingly complex containing millions of nodes to model something that is many orders of magnitude less complex than climate dynamics. They are also limited being unable to reliably predict basic physics like aerodynamic separation.<br /><br />How do you intend to validate you climate models? <br />toolbreakerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02680360928833317215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-52211520783295293052015-09-18T09:27:27.933-07:002015-09-18T09:27:27.933-07:00You do realize that the number one contributor of ...You do realize that the number one contributor of carbon dioxide consists of nearly 7 billion human beings exhaling? That and countless more animals doing the same? And let us not forget the need for CO2 that all plant life depends on to live. Also, why do we insist on ignoring the number one reason for "global warming" or "global climate change": the S-U-N.Judiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13818698163936526480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-32727678180979991382015-09-18T08:35:16.421-07:002015-09-18T08:35:16.421-07:00See the new documentary "Cowspiracy" and...See the new documentary "Cowspiracy" and learn the one biggest thing you can do to reverse global warming.Suzanne Steinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02836625657210486365noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-8102973855270595742015-09-17T22:13:34.395-07:002015-09-17T22:13:34.395-07:00Here's another question: For a given region, ...Here's another question: For a given region, how will climate change affect different seasons/months differently?<br /><br />My intuition is that since CO2 works by slowing down radiational cooling, its effect will be most pronounced in the fall months when this mechanism is most "obvious" in our weather patterns. The end result would be that summertime seems to linger further into September, perhaps even October, as residual summer heat has progressively more trouble escaping under the long early autumn nights.Karl Bonnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17426152656109392214noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-4538926401939296152015-09-17T09:23:22.941-07:002015-09-17T09:23:22.941-07:00For more computing resources have you considered a...For more computing resources have you considered a crowd source app like SETI pioneered years ago and has been used for protein folding and genetic research. Lot of idle power on smartphones and desktop PCs.NWBloggerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16933318594324584809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-28575986591750871912015-09-16T20:27:48.698-07:002015-09-16T20:27:48.698-07:00I'm reticent to feed the trolls, but what aspe...I'm reticent to feed the trolls, but what aspects of the radiation models of the GCMs mentioned are you unsatisfied with?velotronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16946306665538411612noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-23454476076309818412015-09-16T14:48:09.845-07:002015-09-16T14:48:09.845-07:00Dr. Mass, the UW's Climate Impact Group has al...Dr. Mass, the UW's Climate Impact Group has already done much excellent and well cited work with regards to regional climate modeling. In fact they've been at the forefront of that effort at UW. I'm curious as to why you didn't mention them and how does CIG align with this new initiative? Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11455128157120463239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-39183178492862692282015-09-16T13:37:23.063-07:002015-09-16T13:37:23.063-07:00Great post. Possibly one of the clearest and simpl...Great post. Possibly one of the clearest and simplest explanations I have read about regional climate modelling and "nesting". I wish you success with this.caveat emptorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15318994505715193523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-15371458852981991752015-09-16T12:59:11.147-07:002015-09-16T12:59:11.147-07:00You will never have the full picture of global ...You will never have the full picture of global 'temperature change' if you completely ignore the impact of solar influence on global average temperature. Stop drinking corporate kool-aid and peddling their myopic theories.Qwertyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00429690391444840673noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-24629676920493056082015-09-16T09:30:54.369-07:002015-09-16T09:30:54.369-07:00Cliff, If you have time to answer a question: what...Cliff, If you have time to answer a question: what are the main factors the create the most uncertainty in the climate forecasts?Deekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10227802798728715787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-52840851311750079862015-09-16T08:44:12.362-07:002015-09-16T08:44:12.362-07:00Voodoo atmospheric scienceVoodoo atmospheric scienceAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07511651751743756489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-49908799924215499172015-09-16T08:22:53.567-07:002015-09-16T08:22:53.567-07:00The "Ease of Reading" calculator shows t...The "Ease of Reading" calculator shows this post is about 10th grade level. Much of what is written by scientists "for the public" is typically about 4 years of college level.<br /><br />Good job ....RGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02017190779860810318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-3442859978926189452015-09-16T07:35:37.304-07:002015-09-16T07:35:37.304-07:00Cliff, your "here" link regarding region...Cliff, your "here" link regarding regional climate efforts is broken.James Westburyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12727724750278414063noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-84928251474857025882015-09-16T07:29:28.238-07:002015-09-16T07:29:28.238-07:00Very interesting. I will be following this effort....Very interesting. I will be following this effort.<br /><br />FYI the last link ("here") is broken.<br /><br />-DouglasDouglashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13400304542602805292noreply@blogger.com