tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post3521009652656643370..comments2024-03-28T23:07:35.632-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Major Convective Event, with Heavy Rain, Lightning and Thunder, Moving Through Puget SoundCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-39909775078570740012019-09-13T13:04:38.846-07:002019-09-13T13:04:38.846-07:00I agree that the NWS forecast products—what gets p...I agree that the NWS forecast products—what gets packaged and presented to the public—looked clueless about these storms. And the forecast discussion, a step or two removed, wasn't much better.<br /><br />That's especially puzzling since the modeling tools NAILED this thing. Nobody has commented yet on that map showing modeled instability, for example, which is exceptional. Typically, for reasons nobody has ever explained to my satisfaction, the central Sound excels at chewing up convection and spitting it out. (You'd think Beacon Hill in Seattle was the Himalayas, judging from the consistency with which I've seen convection break up in a matter of minutes -- sometimes after having formed on the coast and holding together for hours to get here.)The model said this one would be different, and convection would actually get a shot in the arm as it passed over Seattle—and that's exactly what happened.<br /><br />Incidentally, I don't know what the models predicted last night (Thurs. 9/12), but the NWS forecast discussions, even as late as 9 p.m., had nothing useful to say about the line of moderate thunderstorms that passed over Seattle and Bellevue, or the follow-on activity that I saw driving up to Issaquah Highlands. Blowing a forecast is one thing; issuing a forecast discussion that would have been invalidated by looking out of the window is another, and the optics are terrible.Foohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03929520923930532337noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-19028668694616931092019-09-10T11:39:53.996-07:002019-09-10T11:39:53.996-07:00Looks like you had the best forecast of this event...Looks like you had the best forecast of this event. NWS was downplaying the threat of tstorms in the lowlands during the day on Sat. Next time, don't keep forecasts of severe weather to yourself.Benjaminhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12542582210330402441noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-91883155475930434942019-09-09T12:55:47.243-07:002019-09-09T12:55:47.243-07:00Thank you for your response. Do you think "sh...Thank you for your response. Do you think "short term forecast" and the limited information contained in NWS forecast was adequate enough to cover the scope of the storm? eviehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06664593745528912939noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-66590640325363977152019-09-09T11:46:40.653-07:002019-09-09T11:46:40.653-07:00Jonathan- Thanks for the values. My partner and I ...Jonathan- Thanks for the values. My partner and I were camping in Tomyhoi basin east of you at 5,200 feet and were guessing it rained over 2 inches between 830 and midnight; maybe with the orthographic lift it did. Loco Geologohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13052879505509179639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-20533480275723234612019-09-09T04:24:33.891-07:002019-09-09T04:24:33.891-07:00Perhaps this was overcautious, but we shut down al...Perhaps this was overcautious, but we shut down all our PCs and threw the main breaker at the panel at about 8:30. We have nice electronics that we paid good money for, and I wasn't confident at all in Seattle City Light's ability to tamp down surges.<br /><br />We had dinner by candlelight then came back online two hours later.herrbrahmshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08308204686231352936noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-54334141480215679952019-09-08T22:14:23.275-07:002019-09-08T22:14:23.275-07:00Wow, so many comments!
Cliff, I am so glad you ...Wow, so many comments! <br /><br />Cliff, I am so glad you were on top of it especially shortly after your Ocean Shores talk! Impressive indeed. I grew up in this kind of weather, so it didn't bother me. People in that area know the dangers, but it's so common they typically find the sound of thunder comforting. They've grown up falling asleep to it. <br /><br />I have empathy for those who aren't accustomed to it and know it can be very disturbing to them. The dangers of lightning are very real. Thanks again for your good work, Cliff! Sharonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01122154083786146743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-9139657909491757172019-09-08T18:28:39.989-07:002019-09-08T18:28:39.989-07:00Exactly correct Jimmy! After I arrived at Cliffhan...Exactly correct Jimmy! After I arrived at Cliffhanger sports bar (in Lynnwood), I checked the NWS website @~ 8:45 pm and the 1:53 pm forecast discussion was still posted. However, the graphic on the home page warned of lightning (somewhere). I played pool with Rory, a bearded, middle-aged man. He told me he walked a mile to this bar, during the storm. His hooded jacket was sopped. Rory said he likes the feel of thunder against his chest and the sensation of electricity in the air! He's bolder than me. Lightning strikes in Lynnwood knocked out the power for ~ 5 seconds, on the N side of 176th St SW, and then knocked-out residential lights on the S side of the road about 20 seconds later - while I was driving along (each strike very close)!Stephen Fryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950234135801092922noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-49223673193897277802019-09-08T17:11:43.332-07:002019-09-08T17:11:43.332-07:00Ok good grief so critical of everything and everyo...Ok good grief so critical of everything and everyone...give it a rest perfect person.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05995162332893634289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-46034696327158045572019-09-08T16:31:14.814-07:002019-09-08T16:31:14.814-07:00I have never seen horizontal lighting until last n...I have never seen horizontal lighting until last night. What is the story about that?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14716416381018089733noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-68031912404368770702019-09-08T15:52:17.562-07:002019-09-08T15:52:17.562-07:00Severe thunderstorm warnings are issued only if ha...Severe thunderstorm warnings are issued only if hail is >= 1" in diameter, or if winds exceed 58 mph. Neither criteria was met with last nights storms, therefore no warning. All thunderstorms have lightning, it's the other aspects that classify them as severe/non-severeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-83320456599864037202019-09-08T14:14:07.808-07:002019-09-08T14:14:07.808-07:00I second that question! I've lived in Seattle ...I second that question! I've lived in Seattle for 30 years and I can't remember a lightning storm that was remotely comparable. I stood in the rain for a half hour enjoying the show.Bucky Harrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09846756737418704132noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-75096990911077215032019-09-08T14:03:52.564-07:002019-09-08T14:03:52.564-07:00SOMEONE TELL ME WHY the NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE d...SOMEONE TELL ME WHY the NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE did NOT issue a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING? I'm an armchair meteorologist. I was looking at Weather Channel radar and NWS on different devices to see if an alert would be issued. Short term forecast. Period. I lived in Colorado for years. This was a midwest storm. We live up by Lake Goodwin. Virtually constant lightening and crushing thunder for over an hour. The storm was VERY slow moving. Seemed to gather strength the further north it went. Maybe a severe weather warning would have prompted cancellation of the Husky game. eviehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06664593745528912939noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-36291824872765322912019-09-08T12:52:46.798-07:002019-09-08T12:52:46.798-07:00Never seen so many flashes. I was looking southwes...Never seen so many flashes. I was looking southwest-west-northwest from very high vantage point on Capitol Hill. Looked like hundreds of flashes, wondering if not all hit ground, many only in sky?p206.1981https://www.blogger.com/profile/03740548356193928302noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-64905754880197729112019-09-08T12:39:55.094-07:002019-09-08T12:39:55.094-07:00Not likely. These kinds of storms are not uncommo...Not likely. These kinds of storms are not uncommon in Washington, especially up in the Cascades or in Eastern Wa. Just less common in Western Wa.firemanjoehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13349937839335960209noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-13229890214372163522019-09-08T12:32:24.655-07:002019-09-08T12:32:24.655-07:00The forecast models may have been good, but it see...The forecast models may have been good, but it seems the NWS failed to relay the information to the public. The afternoon forecast package called for a "slim chance" of thunderstorms. (The Discussion focused mainly on the Cascades.) There was no night update. And as far as I can tell, there were no Watches, Warnings, or even Special Weather Statements issued. The only ones I saw were Small Craft Advisories. Seems odd for such an extreme weather event. Perhaps I missed something?Shuksanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09160481068227153675noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-38733981983193525682019-09-08T12:21:33.647-07:002019-09-08T12:21:33.647-07:00Could you imagine living somewhere, where every af...Could you imagine living somewhere, where every afternoon/evening during the spring/summer/fall, there was a significant chance of something like this occurring? While it was an amazing show, I could see it getting old very fast (and I love weather). Makes you appreciate our summers even more.Stonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08039697780598137808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-66029507626961799672019-09-08T12:17:30.961-07:002019-09-08T12:17:30.961-07:00I’ve lived in Woodinville for almost 30 years and ...I’ve lived in Woodinville for almost 30 years and can’t remember another local event with lightning activity on this scale. I’ve spent a lot of time in central Colorado and southern Florida, and while the rain may not of been comparable to some Florida downpours I’ve been in, the lightning activity was definitely comparable.Stonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08039697780598137808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-8978926137729784122019-09-08T12:14:10.704-07:002019-09-08T12:14:10.704-07:00We landed in a storm at Paine Field around 9:30 la...We landed in a storm at Paine Field around 9:30 last night. A spectacular show from the air, but all in all, I would have preferred to see the lightning from my living room windows.<br /><br />Cliff I'm wondering about your statement that the forecasts were very good. The weather service's forecast at 2:01 pm said "Showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening" (70% chance of precipitation) and their discussion at 1:53 pm said "... we cannot completely rule out a stray thunderstorm developing in the lowlands." Obviously understated relative to what happened. I'm curious: Did other models or forecasts predict the storms, not only in the Cascades, but also in the Puget Sound area?Kevin L.https://www.blogger.com/profile/14629570112266113483noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-88030624530152191392019-09-08T11:51:50.832-07:002019-09-08T11:51:50.832-07:00I measured 0.51" of precip in NW Bellingham b...I measured 0.51" of precip in NW Bellingham between 9PM and 3AM with 0.46" falling between 9PM and midnight. The maximum instantaneous rain rate was 4.92"/hr - one of the highest values I've measured. This type of event, a legitimate thunderstorm, has occurred in this area on only a handful of occasions over the past 15 years. It reminded me of one of the frequent thunderstorms which formed during summer afternoons growing up in the Deep South.Friendhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16113544345441368032noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-80203074772840380772019-09-08T10:03:15.797-07:002019-09-08T10:03:15.797-07:00The storm wasn't accurately predicted by the N...The storm wasn't accurately predicted by the NWS until 8:55 pm, after it had already begun earlier. It was amazing! I drove thru it, from Edmonds to Lynnwood, during ~ 8:30-8:40 pm. It was scary!Stephen Fryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12950234135801092922noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-26011805877722438452019-09-08T09:45:55.885-07:002019-09-08T09:45:55.885-07:00Set up with my camera in Seattle near South Lake U...Set up with my camera in Seattle near South Lake Union and got more good lighting shots in an hour that I have during the last 10 years combined. <br /><br />15 minutes before the rain started, i had people asking me why I was head to toe in my heaviest raingear. I'm amazed how many people don't know how to access/use a weather radar app or plan ahead for the weather! (Minutes later, when a full on hailstorm was dumping sloppy, quarter sized hailstones, i had several miserable looking people offering cash for my raincoat. Had to pass on the offers - and they were too wet for it to matter anyway :-))Foohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03929520923930532337noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-67432837994485193092019-09-08T09:38:57.396-07:002019-09-08T09:38:57.396-07:00Here in the eastern part of the state night turned...Here in the eastern part of the state night turned to day at about 3am with near continuous lightening. Most of us were awake listening to scanners or reading FB reports regarding fire and emergency response. Several fire starts, numerous smoke checks and a couple of debris flows.Pinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10771782666543852676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-13508067272530399392019-09-08T09:36:16.038-07:002019-09-08T09:36:16.038-07:00The Bow WA "Rock on a String" has quite ...The Bow WA "Rock on a String" has quite the light, boomer, and wetting show too!!!!RGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02017190779860810318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-59406227697739448132019-09-08T08:26:11.716-07:002019-09-08T08:26:11.716-07:00We watched through the whole storm here in Bellevu...We watched through the whole storm here in Bellevue... Recorded it, too. The strikes were so bright!sebodoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18066358448072548127noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-78112140542774118862019-09-08T08:15:59.401-07:002019-09-08T08:15:59.401-07:00Only if NOAA backed this one up as it did the othe...Only if NOAA backed this one up as it did the other one ;)Markovka Yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01995398881003702944noreply@blogger.com