tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post3553360578960349395..comments2024-03-28T10:16:44.231-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Windstorm Update: Could This Be a Big Fizzle over Puget Sound?Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-29194465107093764792016-03-13T12:57:22.516-07:002016-03-13T12:57:22.516-07:00Depending on where you're making plans to buil...Depending on where you're making plans to build a 55+ community you want to be aware of the need for area. folks that <br />determine to live in community trends don't need to feel cramped or as though they're residing on pinnacle of their acquaintances.<br />If you want to realize greater approximately over 55 community , you may visit:- <a href="www.pinehillestates.com" rel="nofollow">over 55 community Massachusetts</a><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15037789471127657639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-27835276315186175292016-03-13T11:17:02.511-07:002016-03-13T11:17:02.511-07:00Never mind... Looks like the low made it's lef...Never mind... Looks like the low made it's left-turn... Darn!Benohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13770407238173282999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-56736035659305829712016-03-13T10:51:39.457-07:002016-03-13T10:51:39.457-07:00You got that fork and plate of 'crow' at t...You got that fork and plate of 'crow' at the ready, Cliff? :) <br />From what I'm seeing on the latest sat imagery, the low looks like it may be tracking closer to the NAM/ECMWF path (unless it makes a hard-left in the next hour)... <br />Ruh-roh!Benohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13770407238173282999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-41425691906045697182016-03-13T10:23:25.333-07:002016-03-13T10:23:25.333-07:00Low is deeper than forecast and the NAM is handlin...Low is deeper than forecast and the NAM is handling the structure and depth of the low BETTER than the GFS in the short term.<br /><br />Recent HRRR has the low at 977nm on the tip of the Olympic Peninsula. That's almost 10mb lower than the GFS was saying at times yesterday and still 5-6mb lower than the GFS on the run coming out late this morning.<br /><br />Actual obs have the low already at 980, while the GFS showing 989 last night and 985 this morning. <br /><br />Still the track is perfect for a huge blow to the Puget sound, but its no fizzle either.Michael Snyderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06230219537755848399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-61711400549763115272016-03-13T10:09:26.513-07:002016-03-13T10:09:26.513-07:00The most recent satellite (http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov...The most recent satellite (http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/showsat.php?wfo=sew&area=nw&type=vis&size=4) shows a pronounced low has formed over the offshore waters off the OR/WA border moving NNE.<br /><br />Not sure how it will all play out but it's certainly a big change from the earlier satellite photos in this blog.MPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10075850478286639888noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-10717898412992765472016-03-13T09:16:45.200-07:002016-03-13T09:16:45.200-07:00"I got your comma cloud right here" It s..."I got your comma cloud right here" It seems to be here and knocking on the door based on IR.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-78524640378453231862016-03-13T08:47:08.830-07:002016-03-13T08:47:08.830-07:00Thank you for being a voice of reason in a sea of ...Thank you for being a voice of reason in a sea of sensationaism. I'm tired of power outages, exoectancy of trees coming down on our or neighbors properties. I'm just fine with your forecast discussion. This would be at least the 4th huge wind event in our area (Stanwood/Camano), in just the last few months.Evie55https://www.blogger.com/profile/16110854608761139576noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-40357619949218839432016-03-13T08:25:51.582-07:002016-03-13T08:25:51.582-07:00From the above FX, perhaps the most important elem...From the above FX, perhaps the most important element of the communication:<br /><br />"FORECAST CONFIDENCE TAKING A HIT THIS EVNG ......"<br /><br /><br />Cliff, have you ever considered trying to illustrate the importance of uncertainty (the unknown) in forecasting? There is an enormous amount of well substantiated work done on how humans tend to "diagnose" rather than manage probabilities, in terms of decision making. You are no doubt aware of this work by Danniel Kahnemann, Gerd Gergerenzer and so many others who study risk. When the above weather experts honestly and unambiguously communicate uncertainty, they are communicating the key to how to proceed, in terms of risk. The problem is in the end user. If we are not skilled in decision making under terms of uncertainty, we under value that gift that they are giving us - a clear statement of the magnitude of the unknown. The average end user is much more familiar with simple or complex problems where solution is much more linear and conclusive.<br /><br />I think you are right in consistently pointing out exageration in newspaper headlines and other pop media info flows. However, the real problem is that they shout out certainty simply because their audience demands it. The essence of decision making study shows quite well that humans have been trained and conditioned both culturally and genetically to misshandle risk. You must be well aware of this popular miss perception, the "60% chance of showers" problem being a classic example. <br /><br />It may be a hopeless goal, but it has been shown that decision making can improve if people can better understand the pervasiveness of uncertainty, and that accepting the reality of uncertainty is not "crippling" in terms of decision making, rather it then frames the problem as a risk management problem, not purely a diagnosis problem. <br /><br />The significant disconect between the climate scientists, ecologists, etc and us 99% is primarilly a disconnect of perception - and consequent failure of communication - of risk. That is abundantly demonstrated by the popular perception of the reliability of models. Our common sense tells us "if the models are off, they are deceptive". The expert knows otherwise. They know how to factor uncertainty. We do not. We expect a certain diagnosis and any indication that that is lacking immediately prompts a judgement that uncertainty = failure.<br /><br />Your blog could really contribute to a better understanding of risk framing I think. You have trust, a big audience and a varied audience but for the most part, the audience is very limited in expertise of either weather or climate, both domains where uncertainty is highly relevant in evolving toward "best known".<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Bruce Kayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11070247298371179095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-29157619779110905162016-03-13T07:40:13.515-07:002016-03-13T07:40:13.515-07:00Hello Cliff Mass, what will the gusts be like in t...Hello Cliff Mass, what will the gusts be like in the Admiralty Inlet region? On Thursday, a weather station I set up reported 34 mi/h gusts! Thanks!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02837853860139645250noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-27631968294635756322016-03-13T06:10:22.387-07:002016-03-13T06:10:22.387-07:00Mark's quote of the forecast discussion above ...Mark's quote of the forecast discussion above was a helpful reminder -- sometimes in the excitement I forget to check, and invariably they provide useful insight into level of forecasting uncertainty. "Bottom Line" from 3AM iteration (case changed):<br /><br />NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA<br />301 AM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016<br />"...Bottom line is that confidence in a significant windstorm is not<br />as high as it was 12 or 24 hours ago. The high wind warnings were<br />issued Saturday afternoon...and they will remain in effect. We<br />are lowering the wind speeds somewhat -- essentially forecasting<br />highest winds of 40 to 45 mph with gusts 55 to 60 mph rather than<br />the 40 to 50 mph with gusts 70 mph of the previous forecast. In<br />most areas the strongest winds should occur this afternoon and<br />evening..."<br /><br />Last HRRR I saw still showed respectable sustained winds and gusts. I walk around wetlands as often as I can and local water tables seem quite high -- shallow rooted trees aren't likely to take much urging before they fall over. Caution still seems appropriate.sandy knollerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09029954184661114245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-34993312482250027772016-03-13T01:42:03.165-08:002016-03-13T01:42:03.165-08:00Thanks.. However prefer error on the cautious sid...Thanks.. However prefer error on the cautious side. The last storm caused me serious damage and loss. Spent yesterday preparing for this one.<br /><br />I wished their was more detailed weather coverage for the Admiralty inlet, in general.<br /><br />Seattle seems to enjoy a "wind shadow" that the Admiralty inlet and North interior do not.Organic Farmerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08694548750704036717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-77680873303125956452016-03-12T23:25:41.956-08:002016-03-12T23:25:41.956-08:00It's happened before. I have huge trees and wh...It's happened before. I have huge trees and when the winds are 60+, I leave! One time I left and there wasn't even a puff, maybe 5mph. That and I can't sleep during big winds not hitting 60+.<br />I'm all for a 'fizzle'!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02779785287974596953noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-24240832762348143982016-03-12T22:44:14.371-08:002016-03-12T22:44:14.371-08:00How will it compare to the one we had in november?...How will it compare to the one we had in november? That one nearly put a tree through my garage.concerned homeownerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17214865223254718150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-24627670393033746262016-03-12T22:15:41.164-08:002016-03-12T22:15:41.164-08:00I am a wind-whiner and I LOVED your blog. Thank y...I am a wind-whiner and I LOVED your blog. Thank you! Maybe I won't be terrified tomorrow.Merrillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07789784409493203843noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-18353538034839910082016-03-12T21:55:41.992-08:002016-03-12T21:55:41.992-08:00AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEAT...AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED<br />NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA<br />934 PM PST SAT MAR 12 2016<br /><br />FORECAST CONFIDENCE TAKING A HIT THIS EVNG REGARDING<br />THE DETAILS AND STRENGTH OF THE ADVERTISED WINDSTORM FOR SUNDAY<br />PM. THIS AFTER A FEW DAYS OF UNCERTAINTY AND THE EVENTUAL<br />DEVELOPMENT OF MODEL CONSENSUS OF A STRONG WINDSTORM OVER THE<br />PAST 24 HOURS. ALL MODELS...AND NOW SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHOW THE<br />QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW CENTER AROUND 42N 135W. ALL MODELS THEN<br />TAKE THE LOW NE TOWARD THE WA COAST ON SUNDAY AFTN. THIS HAS NOT<br />CHANGED.<br /><br />HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A MORE ELONGATED LOW CENTER NOW THAT<br />STILL CROSSES TATOOSH ISLAND BUT THEN TAKES IT OFF MORE TO THE<br />NNE. THE MORE NORTHWARD TRACK BEYOND TOMORROW AFTN AND ELONGATED<br />STORM STRUCTURE ARE LESS IDEAL. IT NOW PEAKS THE OLM-BLI GRADIENT<br />NEAR 5.5 MB ARND 00Z...WHICH IS STILL QUITE RESPECTABLE BUT<br />NOTHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN ALREADY THIS WINDY MARCH. THE UW WRF-GFS<br />REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL.<br /><br />THE 00Z NAM IS A BIT MORE BULLISH...PEAKING INTENSITY OF THE LOW<br />AT 981 MB AS IT IS CROSSES THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. THE OLM-BLI<br />GRADIENT THEN PEAKS NEAR 9-10 MB...WITH 925-850 MB LAYER WINDS<br />REACHING 50 KT ARND 03Z. WITH A MIXING HEIGHT OF ABOUT 3000-4000<br />FEET AT THE TAIL END OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS COULD EASILY MIX<br />DOWN GUSTS NEAR 50-55 MPH...AGAIN RESPECTABLE AND IMPACTFUL BUT<br />NOT AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.<br /><br />THE 00Z HI-RES ARW STILL SHOWS A MORE COMPACT AND ROBUST LOW AND<br />MAY BE THE MOST BULLISH IN SHOWING WIND POTENTIAL.<br /><br />CONSIDERING THE ALREADY-ISSUED SUITE OF WARNINGS...AND<br />CONSIDERING THAT THIS WILL STILL LIKELY BE A STRONG ENOUGH STORM<br />TO CAUSE SOME POWER OUTAGES AND TREE IMPACTS...SEEMS WISE TO<br />SIMPLY LEAVE THE FORECAST ALONE AND WAIT LATER GUIDANCE. EVEN IF<br />THE SUNDAY WINDSTORM IS MERELY SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO OTHER<br />WINDSTORMS OF THE PAST WEEK...IT WILL STILL KEEP UTILITIES BUSY<br />RESPONDING TO OUTAGES AND BRING DOWN A FEW MORE TREES.<br /><br />FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE LOW...WRN WA WILL STILL HAVE A MOIST AND<br />UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGH TUE...WITH LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. SO<br />EXPECT TO SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING...WITH ACTIVITY MOST<br />FOCUSED OVER THE MTNS AND IN A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE.<br />HANER<br /><br />Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09751991294132134335noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-53355147544002656412016-03-12T21:32:50.717-08:002016-03-12T21:32:50.717-08:00So, the winds might be what some of us in the Snoq...So, the winds might be what some of us in the Snoqualmie Valley are having right now?<br /><br />I agree with the above commenter. A true CYA moment for them.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10214207272273323140noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-78202687107055343722016-03-12T20:59:22.042-08:002016-03-12T20:59:22.042-08:00The NWS whiffed badly on the Wed/Thur Puget Sound ...The NWS whiffed badly on the Wed/Thur Puget Sound wind event. They didn't issue a wind advisory until 4am thursday, at which time everybody's trees were swaying wildy and their garbage cans were flying down the street. I suspect they are being overly cautious this time.nmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02887585111299138661noreply@blogger.com