tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post3609419019437803799..comments2024-03-28T23:07:35.632-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Changes in Uncertainty for Hurricane Florence: Are We Communicating this Well Enough?Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-73589833381409062562018-09-14T15:08:05.024-07:002018-09-14T15:08:05.024-07:00A similar technique is used in determining the pro...A similar technique is used in determining the probability distribution of nuclear power plant accident consequences.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01121904916925340676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-80043841504453418642018-09-14T10:37:05.990-07:002018-09-14T10:37:05.990-07:00Good proposal. I'm also interested in size and...Good proposal. I'm also interested in size and speed of the storm, but maybe your three factors get at that indirectly. Rebecca Timsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11893945762947495364noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-35305067555447188392018-09-14T05:34:58.338-07:002018-09-14T05:34:58.338-07:00High pressure on a constant-pressure chart? High h...High pressure on a constant-pressure chart? High heights more like it. But really, if you have never experienced a hurricane it is impossible to envision what is about to happen no matter what is said.jimijrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05575435707603812489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-14137488311051485342018-09-14T00:34:18.489-07:002018-09-14T00:34:18.489-07:00I have family who live at the Space Coast - really...I have family who live at the Space Coast - really familiar with hurricanes. They recommend this site with multiple models: http://spaghettimodels.com<br /><br />Just sharing!GlacierBakehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14691372693124586046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-38325402083791916602018-09-13T21:39:41.205-07:002018-09-13T21:39:41.205-07:00It seems like these cones of uncertainty give equa...It seems like these cones of uncertainty give equal weight to all the models without taking into account their track record. Giving the better model tracks more weighting should cause less outliers that cause the cones to spread as much.<br />Another thing that would be helpful would be to plot the european model (or whichever model has been the most accurate} track seperately. on top of the cone of uncertainty. Weather Devoteehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07071334949599205140noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-79095738166061781452018-09-13T15:25:16.944-07:002018-09-13T15:25:16.944-07:00"high pressure north of the storm that was he..."high pressure north of the storm that was helping steer Florence to the northeast."<br /><br />Do you mean northwest? Looking at the path of the storm, it doesn't appear it made any northeastern movements. Or do you just mean it was being pushed to the northeast relative to where it would have been without the high pressure system?Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12889376228813945691noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-112982899545825242018-09-13T13:40:17.186-07:002018-09-13T13:40:17.186-07:00If you look at the archive of tropical products fr...If you look at the archive of tropical products from 5 days ago, it looks like the NHC will be within 50 miles of where landfall was predicted back on Saturday night, or at least brush the shoreline close enough to Wilmington to essentially count. <br /><br />We need to seriously consider revising the Saffir Simpson Scale to a composite index of wind, rain and storm surge. While it might be a cat 2 by wind, it could be argued to be a cat 3 or 4 by storm surge and cat 5 for rain. I'm hearing reports of people considering of going back to Wilmington because it is "only a cat 2" when the forecasts of 30 or so inches of rain hasn't changed. <br /><br />We revised the Fujita Scale, so why not improve this?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00747999090426638882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-42853278581968423642018-09-13T12:09:45.465-07:002018-09-13T12:09:45.465-07:00Regardless of which forecast is correct, the autho...Regardless of which forecast is correct, the authorities have done all they can do in order to make sure anyone within range of the winds, storm surge and widespread flooding zones are evacuated. Sadly, there will always be a few who insist on staying, and the tragedy is that lives will be risked needlessly in order to save them when things inevitably turn disastrous. Eric Blairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09376653214948517679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-50678733424664856642018-09-13T08:56:07.828-07:002018-09-13T08:56:07.828-07:00Scott - I think you are on the right track. The &...Scott - I think you are on the right track. The "average Joe" just wants one or two quick facts to go on, such as "where does it make landfall". But of course as you point out, "where it makes landfall" isn't even the most important thing to know.<br /><br />If one thinks about how most people go about trying to understand the natural earth verses how the earth actuality functions in terms of uncertainty, these two are in complete opposition to one another. I'm afraid Cliff and his compatriots have what amounts to an impossible job explaining things, to the public at large at least.John K.https://www.blogger.com/profile/03575682658318674003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-9983358945290473412018-09-13T08:44:48.120-07:002018-09-13T08:44:48.120-07:00It's early yet, but at this stage it appears t...It's early yet, but at this stage it appears that the new FV-3 model is closer to reality. Any thoughts?DRHEALYhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09538819438212930500noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-43095426185955316902018-09-13T06:54:27.351-07:002018-09-13T06:54:27.351-07:00I appreciate your continuing mission to figure out...I appreciate your continuing mission to figure out how to communicate weather information more clearly. I've been pondering this post and I think one of the problems is that storms are categorized. Is it only by wind speed? Or are there other factors. It seems that the categorization is to precise. And then the very nature of the variability of storms to change lends people to think that oh well, maybe the forecasts were wrong, and it won't be as bad, big, scary.<br /><br />There also seems to be too much attention to where it makes landfall: that's nice for a track but that's somewhat irrelevant in the grander scheme. I was thinking that maybe rather than a "Cone of Uncertainty" maybe there needs to be a "Ring of Probability" or "Ring of Impact", concentric rings, perhaps color coded as to potential impact. I'm trying to think of new, visual ways to communicate possible impacts, areas affected, and so forth.<br /><br />The more complex and nuanced story you tell in your blog posts — the explainers – should become part of the forecast story I believe.<br /><br />Of course this is America/human beings in general and their bias to ok, it's going to be this, then do this, this, and that, and all will be well. There is a bias towards specificity and certainty. How forecasters and meteorologists navigate that tempest is, indeed, challenging.<br /><br />Thanks for the blog and explanations.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-5225573412486373612018-09-13T06:36:35.759-07:002018-09-13T06:36:35.759-07:00The Washington post has a nice page/graphics
https...The Washington post has a nice page/graphics<br />https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/national/tracking-hurricane-florence/?utm_term=.7c867a355f79Waynehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01630809193680932726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-44047527352474280952018-09-12T21:37:16.401-07:002018-09-12T21:37:16.401-07:00This looks eerily similar to Harvey last year. Two...This looks eerily similar to Harvey last year. Two years in a row seems very unlikely given the rarity of this pattern.Weather Devoteehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07071334949599205140noreply@blogger.com