tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post4403988246595166508..comments2024-03-18T17:39:59.285-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Are Northwest Springs Getting Worse?Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger29125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-4015138579964582382011-04-25T23:15:49.408-07:002011-04-25T23:15:49.408-07:00Cliff, General theory check out NOAA. Low solar ac...Cliff, General theory check out NOAA. Low solar activity over years results in cooling on our planet. <br /><br />Please note that the current prediction from NOAA for cycle 24 for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 62 in July of 2013. We are currently over two years into Cycle 24. The predicted size would make this the smallest sunspot cycle in nearly 200 years.<br /><br />How does this effect our global temperature is the real question?<br /><br />http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml<br /><br />The key here is to not evaluate data in days or months but years and decades. <br />http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/29may_noaaprediction/<br /><br />Sunspot cycles over the last century. The blue curve shows the cyclic variation in the number of sunspots. Red bars show the cumulative number of sunspot-less days. The minimum of sunspot cycle 23 was the longest in the space age with the largest number of spotless days. Credit: Dibyendu Nandi et al.<br />Thoory behind missing sunspots (NOAA)<br />http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2011/02mar_spotlesssun/the Kleibershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03148217407202620988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-74958375372400021432011-04-25T19:21:04.900-07:002011-04-25T19:21:04.900-07:00Did you happen to test your findings for robustnes...Did you happen to test your findings for robustness? I'm curious as to how the graph would change if you lowered or raised the cutoff by 10-15 degrees. I ask because making continuous variables discrete sometimes gives weird (for lack of a better term) results.Trevallionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06382789794184222439noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-3307985377126818922011-04-22T10:59:30.119-07:002011-04-22T10:59:30.119-07:00Hi Cliff,
As a 'just-for-grin' exercise, ...Hi Cliff,<br /><br />As a 'just-for-grin' exercise, I plotted the cloud coverage for part of the same period that your Spring Fever chart covers. I only had access to publicly available data, which covered the period from 1973-2000. <br /><br />The data for each year measures the daily average cloud cover only for the days between 2/1 - 4/15.<br /><br />There seems to be a correlation between a sharp increase in cloud cover and a sharp decrease in the number of 55F days around 1996-97.<br /><br />Wonder why the sudden surge in clouds? Is this a long term cyclical event that exceeds La Nina / El Nino cycles in duration?<br /><br />http://www.warmsackstudio.org/visualizations/climate/images/CloudCover_1973-2000.pngdbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18099698017813709699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-86550212977655701632011-04-20T22:07:39.662-07:002011-04-20T22:07:39.662-07:00Kleiber,
No..the whole thing is pretty far fetc...Kleiber,<br /> No..the whole thing is pretty far fetched and really doesn't make any sense. Sunspots have returned now and have been back for a while. There is no reason to expect the lack of sunspots three years ago to affect the weather in one part of the country...us. The web page you cited is from some nutty anti-global warming site....cliffCliff Mass Weather Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-83010680901214790082011-04-20T21:51:57.834-07:002011-04-20T21:51:57.834-07:00Cliff, Do you plan to do some research on the rela...Cliff, Do you plan to do some research on the relationship between spotless days and weather locally?the Kleibershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03148217407202620988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-56651780005583318932011-04-19T23:38:36.148-07:002011-04-19T23:38:36.148-07:00It would be interesting if you tracked the data to...It would be interesting if you tracked the data to the solar cycles during the same time frame. The last solar cycle and the next solar cycles are estimated to be the longest in over 150 years. How do the longer solar cycles effect our weather in Seattle area. <br /><br />Does a relationship exist between spotless days (number days without sunspots) and cool springs? Perhaps a time delay in months or years to see the relationship. It would be interesting to show a chart with spotless days on an annual basis with the data in your chart above. <br /><br />Observations:<br />From the chart “Top 25 of years with most number of spotless days since 1849” 2007, 2008 and 2009 are in the top 25 for spotless days. 2008 and 2009 are ranked 4th and 5th and 2007 is ranked 20th. A spotless day is the number of days the sun does not have sunspots. <br /><br />My observation from reviewing the potential correlation between spotless days and the low number of days above 55 F in the NW. <br /><br />Based on reviewing the spotless days chart (see link below) and the number of days greater than 55F over the 1948 to 2011 time frame, the probability of a cool spring 1 to 3 years after a a 160 or more spotless days in a given year appears to be high. Since 1993 the trend shows cooling. <br /> <br /> What is the duration of cooling that you would expect with 3 years of near record spotless days from the sun?<br /><br />1954: 9th, est from chart 246 spotless days/1955 days greater than 55 F= 4 (1 year delay)<br />1996: 19th, est from chart 170 spotless days/1997 days greater than 55 F= 15 and next 3 years a drop in trend.<br />2007: 20th, est from chart 263 spotless days/2008 days greater than 5 F=11 <br />2008: 4th, est from chart 261 spotless days/2009 days greater than 5 F=11<br />2009: 5th, est from chart 165 spotless days/2010 days greater than 55 F=26, 2011 days greater than 55 F= 2 (2 year delay?)<br /><br />It would be interesting if you tracked the data to the solar cycles during the sametime frame. The last solar cycle and the next solar cycles are estimated to be the longest in over 150 years. How do the longer solar cycles effect our weather in seattle area. <br /><br />Does a relationship exist between spotless days (number days without sunspots) and cool springs? Perhaps a time delay in months or years to see the relationship.It would be interesting to show a chart with spotless days on an annual basis with the data in your chart above. Note that in 1954 <br /><br /><br />Note chart with Top 25 of years with most number of spotless days since 1849. http://hypsithermal.wordpress.com/2008/09/07/update-to-solaemons-spotless-days-page/<br /><br />http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html#Periodthe Kleibershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03148217407202620988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-32634056161762279402011-04-18T01:36:03.303-07:002011-04-18T01:36:03.303-07:00Cliff, based on this post, I finally got off my bu...Cliff, based on this post, I finally got off my butt and went to our garden plot at Crossroads. I did most of my weeding and a quarter of the dirt turning (we're not allowed to use roto-tillers) :-(<br /><br />I've got my fingers crossed tight that the cold spring just like 2009 MIGHT mean a warm summer like that year... and TOMATOES and PEPPERS and LUFFAS!! <br /><br />Don't worry, I won't plant them until Memorial Day weekend, just like we always did at home in New Jersey when I was growing up.<br /><br />Thanks as always for the perspective. It's gratifying to have my grumpy old beast attitude about the chilly weather confirmed by statistics. I am ready to turn off the furnace, though.JewelyaZhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09434569437851248356noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-21284512576150307982011-04-18T00:00:25.065-07:002011-04-18T00:00:25.065-07:00It could be worse:
Average Max Temperature JAN-MAR...It could be worse:<br />Average Max Temperature JAN-MARCH<br />1950 41.58<br />1956 44.19<br />1957 44.60<br />1955 44.68<br />1949 44.85<br />1951 45.10<br />1952 45.66<br />1971 45.88<br />1985 46.05<br />1989 46.27<br />1954 46.44<br />1980 46.47<br />1969 46.59<br />1975 46.64<br />1960 46.67<br />2009 46.73<br />2002 46.81<br />1976 47.07<br />1959 47.13<br />1972 47.24<br />1982 47.27<br />2011 47.53<br /><br />#22 all time, not as bad as it could be!Tracehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01210074778905033579noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-49440537366847733192011-04-17T19:36:18.251-07:002011-04-17T19:36:18.251-07:00Thanks for this post, it was really interesting to...Thanks for this post, it was really interesting to see the data behind the weather we've been having!Mollyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03926117389223794697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-8686395004795305182011-04-17T14:23:42.571-07:002011-04-17T14:23:42.571-07:00'Global warming hoax?)The projected temperatur...'Global warming hoax?)The projected temperature rise is unrealistic, given that the USA and global temperatures have risen by only 1 deg F (.5 C) in 100 years (or 150 years using the full instrumented data set) during the height of industrial expansion. Even if all this rise is correct, and is attributable to human causes, it is a trivial amount in the natural variation of the Earth, and to suggest the rise would accelerate 5 fold (IPCC best estimate) in this century is incredible. Even after the release of the new data set and procedures by NOAA , which addressed some of the urban heat island issues and dropped the warming 54%. There are also issues of calibration as measurement protocols have changed, issues about the design and placement of the temperature stations, and even the strongly held view by many skeptics that this is a natural rise as the Earth recovers from the Little Ice Age.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06819620688140306837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-69546086892432450292011-04-17T14:22:36.210-07:002011-04-17T14:22:36.210-07:00Once we crack 55 degrees, the next milestone is 75...Once we crack 55 degrees, the next milestone is 75. Last year we had trouble with that too.<br />I know my spirit is broken for sure. I remember years ago, I'd be wearing shorts to school at this time and feeling good since summer was on it's way. The last few years I still have the furnace on, and wearing a sweatshirt at lest.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00177443374751333878noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-69903453156231584512011-04-17T14:08:07.211-07:002011-04-17T14:08:07.211-07:00People's memories are indeed short, and this g...People's memories are indeed short, and this graph doesn't show a downward trend, but a pretty regular fluctuation. We have some warm springs and some cold springs. Get over it people!Laurellehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04588351274356214140noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-43694401763996147522011-04-17T12:55:28.167-07:002011-04-17T12:55:28.167-07:00If you add Nina/Nino to another of the same data, ...If you add Nina/Nino to another of the same data, can you also add major volcanic eruptions. A straight edge on the graph shows me the mean is increasing until 1996, then a definite decline in the trend, but probably at this point not a huge change in the mean which still looks to be slightly positive for '48-'11.sequimteethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01240776461232551155noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-33629934361471352942011-04-17T12:23:25.142-07:002011-04-17T12:23:25.142-07:00This really has been a lousy early spring. But th...This really has been a lousy early spring. But the good news is that the 2009 summer was fantastic, and it looks like it had a lousy early spring too. Also, last summer wasn't so great, and the early spring looked fine. So past performance is no guarantee of future results!C.P.O.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16880429004171251097noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-63595845446875028112011-04-17T09:24:27.254-07:002011-04-17T09:24:27.254-07:00Well, that is validating. I thought I was just get...Well, that is validating. I thought I was just getting old and couldn't tolerate mild cold.<br /><br />What is interesting to me is that the graph spikes up really high around 1993. But I remember that was a non-summer in Seattle because that was the summer I lived in Sacramento (yay 115 degress that could kill you if you stayed in direct sun too long) and I was constantly hearing complaints back home about how "Seattle never got a summer!" I don't know if on the charts that was the case but I do wonder if the warmer Spring/cooler Summer were related?Urbancowgrrlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15860022294549771879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-59515367156823953362011-04-16T19:57:18.972-07:002011-04-16T19:57:18.972-07:00GREAT POST. Specifically for one reason.
One of m...GREAT POST. Specifically for one reason.<br /><br />One of my biggest pet peeves, and I'll put myself on the top of the list, is being unaware and have short-term memories about local weather. So we say, this winter has to be the coldest ever, this summer has been the hottest ever, etc. We are all weather narcissists!<br /><br />All I'm saying is its refreshing to see data backup what we are truly experiencing. We will continue to complain like always, but be correct for once.Buddyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13773392812050013355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-2064546348389692122011-04-16T14:25:29.495-07:002011-04-16T14:25:29.495-07:00I love it! The Spring Fever Index, that is, not t...I love it! The Spring Fever Index, that is, not this lack of spring weather.<br /><br />This, folks, is science at its best: taking our subjective perception of the world and confirming it with an objective measure.<br /><br />Or, as Zombie Feynman would put it, "Everything else is just bookkeeping." (http://xkcd.com/397/)David Cuthberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11500879139513611307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-41168285301528233522011-04-16T14:08:27.246-07:002011-04-16T14:08:27.246-07:00It would be great to see La Nina and El Nino years...It would be great to see La Nina and El Nino years added to the plot of days above 45 degrees.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15826143283931081117noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-89767550744430303072011-04-16T13:14:07.784-07:002011-04-16T13:14:07.784-07:00Swallows came through here on Monday. So warmer we...Swallows came through here on Monday. So warmer weather can't be too far behind.Kenna Wickmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02802821050975830973noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-42530314193962116492011-04-16T12:23:36.038-07:002011-04-16T12:23:36.038-07:00As always, love your blog. Thanks for confirming ...As always, love your blog. Thanks for confirming our shared suspicions. Here's hoping we see 55 degrees very soon!Jim Terryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05068564615612575150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-1186428302260737822011-04-16T10:42:50.387-07:002011-04-16T10:42:50.387-07:00That graph is disturbing for a couple reasons. Fir...That graph is disturbing for a couple reasons. First, the constant incline from the 50's to mid 90's. And second, the sudden out of whack since the mid 90's.<br /><br />Its like climate change broke its threshold on rare seasonal weather, hot and cold, in the 90's.smokejumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05358322512081660205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-15088345350468636512011-04-16T10:33:42.926-07:002011-04-16T10:33:42.926-07:00Perception of temperature certainly is relative. I...Perception of temperature certainly is relative. I moved here from Missoula, MT in October, so this is my first full winter/spring in Western Washington. To me most of this winter and spring has been the warmest of my life. If the temperature gets over 50 and its sunny I'm out in a tee shirt. <br /><br />Now I'm starting to realize why I get dirty looks when I tell a barista on a day like today, "nice weather we're having!"Benjaminhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12542582210330402441noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-2837458071199267192011-04-16T10:17:46.122-07:002011-04-16T10:17:46.122-07:00As a farmer, I track dates for several events (pla...As a farmer, I track dates for several events (plant bud break, bird migration, etc)and this is the latest Spring in a trend that has been going on the last 10 years. This would be due to the cool phase of the NPO then? When will it reverse, any clues? I had hoped we had bottomed out last year...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-10862397999260063172011-04-16T10:12:59.760-07:002011-04-16T10:12:59.760-07:00As a farmer, I also watch for bud break on plants,...As a farmer, I also watch for bud break on plants, returning birds from the south, and other indicators. There has been 10 years of cold springs, compared to the 10 before. This is the NPO cold phase is it not? When will it swing back? I had hoped we had bottomed out last year...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-25505667322552421972011-04-16T09:24:30.396-07:002011-04-16T09:24:30.396-07:00If this is the worst spring can throw at us I'...If this is the worst spring can throw at us I'll take it and be grateful I don't live elsewhere.Mike DeMarcohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09400442143371833282noreply@blogger.com