tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post4577098555404623120..comments2024-03-28T23:07:35.632-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: First Major Blow of the WinterCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger45125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-53719075397976649602018-12-28T07:01:00.436-08:002018-12-28T07:01:00.436-08:00Cliff,
Curious to know: what are the highest cumul...Cliff,<br />Curious to know: what are the highest cumulonimbus tops you have heard of?<br />Thank youAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08253840338703012438noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-55912443966435311672018-12-16T13:09:31.181-08:002018-12-16T13:09:31.181-08:00Eric Blair - In order for you, me or most anyone ...Eric Blair - In order for you, me or most anyone here to "denigrate" anyones work we first need to possess a functional skill that matches their own.<br /><br />You follow?<br /><br />Yes of course you do, because you and I have that much actual experience with the limits of human cognitive ability, and we can read about how that cognitive ability has been tested, which substantially supports the above first sentence.<br /><br />When it comes to climate science, no one not possessing the skill of Curry or Linzen has neither the practical experience to validate whatever they say (nor Cliff Mass, for that matter) and no amount of reading will change that.<br /><br />What we can do - that is, all and every person who is functionally lacking the skills of validation for climate science, essentially 99% of most Blog followers here - is simply ask this:<br /><br /> What do their peers think of their work? Do they respect or "denigrate" their work? Is there a measurable consensus?<br /><br /><br />No one should really be surprised at this. It is essentially how we place our trust in damn near any opinion, wherever their is an institutional knowledge culture, such as flying a jet aircraft. We don'y trust our own incompetent speculations and we prefer not to invest in only one experts opinion. We want to know what the consensus of their peers thinks about what it takes to fly inside a cloud.<br /><br />So no matter how much you "like" Curry or Lindzen's work, thats all it is - a like, not really much more reliable than any "Like" on Facebook.<br /><br />Again, if you doubt my words, I can only invite you to google "Cognitive psychology" and enjoy what remains of the Christmas Holidays blowing your mind!Bruce Kayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11070247298371179095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-66817126652972763402018-12-16T12:47:30.236-08:002018-12-16T12:47:30.236-08:00jimijr
"As a meteorologist I had to train my...jimijr <br />"As a meteorologist I had to train myself to see only what was there in front of me, no more no less, not what I wanted to see. Dr. Mass gets this right every time."<br /><br />Bias can come from picking and choosing what we look at. I agree that Cliff is better than most (which is why I like his blog so much), but nobody's perfect.<br />Snapehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10191939953231437312noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-69174436701168506052018-12-16T10:41:44.816-08:002018-12-16T10:41:44.816-08:00Its not necessary to characterize Dr. Curry as a l...Its not necessary to characterize Dr. Curry as a liar to have reservations about the blog post. I was surprised when I poked around to see her controversial positions plainly evident. She clearly sees the academic environment as politicized and essentially aligned against her stands on climate change. Its why I feel cautious interpreting a blog post from such a motivated individual possibly eager to document from elsewhere similar (perhaps more perceived) treatment to hers. And since Dr. Mass wisely has not made any public statements I have seen its best not to make any assumptions about what has transpired in private UW conversations. His treatment in the some of the press up there is enough to generate my sympathy.<br /><br />And certainly disturbing trends especially around speech are manifest in some contemporary campus environments. I sometimes wondered if we were going to have to issue trigger warnings for chemistry safety training (fortunately never happened). Again it was good to retire when I did.<br /><br />Dr. Curry reminds me even more about the George Taylor saga at OSU a decade ago. He espoused similar positions albeit on a more local, state level (she has testified before Congress). Aside from the climate debate he did a good job and I was a little sad when he left. His "Oregon Climate Service" web page went with him. And like her after retirement he formed his own consulting service.gnolanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09955373958978384312noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-11497460542720224162018-12-16T00:03:39.659-08:002018-12-16T00:03:39.659-08:00Not so for me, Mac. Lots of wind for me in 2 Whatc...Not so for me, Mac. Lots of wind for me in 2 Whatcom County locations. Ferndale and Alabama Hill, broken branches on my fence line and lots of power out near Alabama hill/Lake Whatcom area.Carolinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02739575454791927332noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-19995702503161116132018-12-15T19:40:03.818-08:002018-12-15T19:40:03.818-08:00I recommend watching the video of the Edmonds ferr...I recommend watching the video of the Edmonds ferry in the storm on KOMO, impressive. I'm thinking Wa State Ferry system might want to watch these forecasts more closely in the future.<br />Weather Devoteehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07071334949599205140noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-43547695874287649412018-12-15T17:53:41.624-08:002018-12-15T17:53:41.624-08:00For those denigrating Dr. Curry's work, you ha...For those denigrating Dr. Curry's work, you have to also feel similarly regarding Dr. Richard Lidzen (of MIT redoubt). His findings and subsequent questioning of the current AGW dogma pushed him smack dab into the witch hunt for anyone daring to hold a contrary viewpoint. Additionally, please keep in mind that Lidzen is considered to be one of the fathers of the climatology field in general, so his analysis cannot be so easily dismissed, although many lesser lights have strenuously attempted to do so.Eric Blairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09376653214948517679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-55552009070996950142018-12-15T16:55:12.586-08:002018-12-15T16:55:12.586-08:00I'm in Bellingham and this was a hearty windst...I'm in Bellingham and this was a hearty windstorm for me, both near Ferndale and on Alabama hill. Power outages all around on the PSE outage map. Some outages over several hours long. So, very much felt in my neck of the woods.Carolinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02739575454791927332noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-12016498279977265412018-12-15T15:24:20.248-08:002018-12-15T15:24:20.248-08:00A couple of 42 mph gusts between about 4:45PM and ...A couple of 42 mph gusts between about 4:45PM and 6PM 1.5 mi SW of KBLIFriendhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16113544345441368032noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-39393832021687221082018-12-15T14:42:32.010-08:002018-12-15T14:42:32.010-08:00Yes, Sojourner Truth, it is sad that everything ha...Yes, Sojourner Truth, it is sad that everything has become politicized including science. While I place myself on the left, I say that "while it is good to have an open mind, it should not be so open that your brains fall out"! <br /><br />While my impression is that some of the changes that we are seeing are probably related to climate change, such as more fires and slightly longer summers and milder winters, it does not mean that just any initiative dealing with climate is automatically good. I think Cliff's main objection to 1631 was that it impacts the poor and lower middle class hardest. I voted for it but I had to hold my nose, as I did not like the way it was written. The left needs to remember that we need a fair tax system, as I have said before. This state has an already regressive tax structure and 1631 would have made it worse.<br /><br />Cliff, a suggestion for you: Write another initiative with your knowledge of weather AND social justice, and try to get it on the ballot next time around.Anselhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13835758313287462921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-18673611042415581562018-12-15T13:53:03.217-08:002018-12-15T13:53:03.217-08:00MAC in Bellingham -
You wrote: “Once people go do...MAC in Bellingham -<br /><br />You wrote: “Once people go down the road of Judith Curry, there is rarely any turning back. When a once respected scientist starts talking about conspiracies, corruption, hiding data, and craziness in reference to her one-time colleagues, there is little possibility of altering the trajectory away from science. <br /><br />The preface to her post said this: “In preparing this article, I have received material from a member of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington. I also ran into another member of the Department while at the AGU meeting this week, who corroborated these events. I conducted a 30 minute phone interview with Cliff Mass.”<br /><br />She then goes on to talk about the bullying of a scientist, by fellow scientists and others within academia, at a public university based on that material. Are you calling her a liar? What in her post about Cliff Mass was false, and please let us know how you know it (like she did). I would really like to know.sunsnow12https://www.blogger.com/profile/16856025812008113046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-17979090791161276742018-12-15T13:12:04.977-08:002018-12-15T13:12:04.977-08:00I'm a north of Bellingham and as MAC said, the...I'm a north of Bellingham and as MAC said, there was by no means a storm here. If anything, it was worse a night or two prior. Did get quite blustery for a bit in the early evening, with flickering lights. I know it was windier elsewhere. But as we all know, it takes very little in the way of a "weather event" to result in power outages in Western WA. Never changes. Colleenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16635233372638773800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-75518944705164077422018-12-15T12:57:42.131-08:002018-12-15T12:57:42.131-08:00Organic Farmer says:
"Again, how do we have ...Organic Farmer says:<br /><br />"Again, how do we have confidence I future climate prediction, when we can't even get today's weather forecast right?"<br /><br /><br /><br />If Cliff was inclined, he could answer this very easily, and it wouldn't corroborate your gut hunches in the slightest.Bruce Kayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11070247298371179095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-3867700482610779152018-12-15T11:30:52.578-08:002018-12-15T11:30:52.578-08:00The Judith Curry thing somehow reminds me of how w...The Judith Curry thing somehow reminds me of how we treated folks who were in favor of the Vietnam War back when I was in college and how we treated administrators who stood in our way. Once again the truth is under attack by entrenched interests. But here it is meteorological truth, a science based on observation and data analysis. As a meteorologist I had to train myself to see only what was there in front of me, no more no less, not what I wanted to see. Dr. Mass gets this right every time. (I came to appreciate his skills as an analyst with his Bent-back T-bone Fronts paper.)jimijrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05575435707603812489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-53242803533565802232018-12-15T11:13:26.053-08:002018-12-15T11:13:26.053-08:00Most of the Oregon CoCoRaHS strong wind reports to...Most of the Oregon CoCoRaHS strong wind reports today are from the southern portions of the state especially the coastal regions. There could of course be a sampling bias in these descriptions. One report from Eugene echoed my sense that peak winds were around 1200-1300. Judging from the Washington CoCoRaHS notes winds arrived up there later, say after 1600 and lasted into the night. Several reports of power outages were evident. I would say the storm predictions were about right.<br /><br />And by the way I share MAC in Bellingham's caution in interpreting the Judith Curry narrative. We do not know what if anything has been expressed to Dr. Mass from administration powers that be at UW. gnolanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09955373958978384312noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-2300681141572717272018-12-15T10:54:31.915-08:002018-12-15T10:54:31.915-08:00Winds came early in Sequim on Friday, but based on...Winds came early in Sequim on Friday, but based on the forecast, we were already thinking wind, just not that soon. NOAA quickly reacted with “look out the window forecasting” and updated the high wind warning back to 8:42a, but by then lights wete flickering. <br /><br />We had local outages in morning, up and down, and then Bonneville Power Authority 230kv lines feeding the OlyPen (both lines!) went down hard due to a tower failure by early afternoon, and didn’t come back until 11:30p in Sequim. One of the longest outages in recent memory.<br /><br />Thankfully we were already thinking high winds based on the forecast and were prepared, but the 60+ degree temps and ultra dry air of the morning high winds were unusual. The mountain wave off the Olympics wasn’t forecasted. Felt like a Colorado Chinook wind.<br /><br />Johnamarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17737399978789523366noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-16402474366505971772018-12-15T06:24:28.223-08:002018-12-15T06:24:28.223-08:00As I reported last night around 8 pm, this did not...As I reported last night around 8 pm, this did not turn out to be much in Bellingham. I would say it would score as at as a moderate miss on the forecast, considering that the worst of it was supposed to be on the coast and to the north.<br /><br />But it looks like the impact to the south was greater, judging by the power outages, and the extension of the wind warning to 10 pm.<br /><br />There was a lot of early power loss in the Port Angeles area, but it does not seem to be a result of the main brunt of the storm. Was this a different kind of local effect?<br /><br />I would be interested in hearing Cliff's assessment of the quality of the forecast, ensemble or otherwise.MAC in Bellinghamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00951163853106956325noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-5562541617484120052018-12-14T22:52:28.318-08:002018-12-14T22:52:28.318-08:00For what it is worth, Olympia lost power just afte...For what it is worth, Olympia lost power just after 5:00 PM. Probably will not be back until after midnight. We had some wind but I did not think it was enough to cause the outages in the south sound. Still lots of trees with leaves so that may have been the real issue.John Haworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16013468430204946174noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-21887528576536686082018-12-14T21:55:31.197-08:002018-12-14T21:55:31.197-08:00@ Sojourner Truth.
Thanks for bringing this issu...@ Sojourner Truth.<br /><br /> Thanks for bringing this issue to our attention.<br /><br />That is simply mind boggling.<br /><br />Sounds like sour grapes pushback of the worst kind by those who sought a significant monetary benefit if I-1632 had passed.<br /><br />You publically entitled folks really need to take your hand out of my pocket and do your part in reducing your own personal carbon footprints.<br /><br />Keep up the good work Cliff of educating the public.<br /><br />I thought we where supposed to be free.<br /><br />Chris H<br />Heli-free North CascadesChris H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/10922945102509424248noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-65341540430656443612018-12-14T21:33:35.683-08:002018-12-14T21:33:35.683-08:00Hmmm...I'd be careful of Dr. Curry trying to u...Hmmm...I'd be careful of Dr. Curry trying to use this kerfuffle to push her own agenda. <br />I see some her material and claims as questionable and not friendly toward AGW science.Heavyhemihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17178264842878827063noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-64702360042431852162018-12-14T21:14:38.586-08:002018-12-14T21:14:38.586-08:00Wind arrived late in the North Sound. All quite at...Wind arrived late in the North Sound. All quite at 4:00 PM I went trail running at the Skagit Valley College. By 4:30 PM winds had started to blow, enough that I wanted to be away from waving trees. By 6:00 PM the lights were flickering. At 8:00 PM we had maximum sustained winds blowing a gale, by 8:30 PM the winds dissipated. I didn't hear any trees snap, I assume we got off light because the leaves had already fallen. clive boultonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13368132383395164003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-90590186826468605952018-12-14T21:13:34.980-08:002018-12-14T21:13:34.980-08:00Wind arrived late in the North Sound. All quite at...Wind arrived late in the North Sound. All quite at 4:00 PM I went trail running at the Skagit Valley College. By 4:30 PM winds had started to blow, enough that I wanted to be away from waving trees. By 6:00 PM the lights were flickering. At 8:00 PM we had maximum sustained winds blowing a gale, by 8:30 PM the winds dissipated. I didn't hear any trees snap, I assume we got off light because the leaves had already fallen.clive boultonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13368132383395164003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-31872300731385005812018-12-14T20:44:18.178-08:002018-12-14T20:44:18.178-08:00I stand with Cliff!
Besides where would I go to c...I stand with Cliff!<br /><br />Besides where would I go to complain about locally inaccurate forcasts.<br /><br />Admiralty inlet has had several makor wind events recently. We were without power for 12 hours.<br /><br />THIS FeidFr event was a dud, nothing, light rain and a moderate breeze <br /><br />Frustrated in the poor forcasts.<br /><br />Again, how do we have confidence I future climate prediction, when we can't even get today's weather forecast right? Organic Farmerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08694548750704036717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-938109451866343482018-12-14T19:52:50.573-08:002018-12-14T19:52:50.573-08:00Back to the weather.
Assuming the winds do not pi...Back to the weather.<br /><br />Assuming the winds do not pick back up again, this did not turn out to be much of an event near the Bellingham Airport. In fact, the winds were only a bit more than this morning and not as sustained and intense as what we had Wednesday night into Thursday morning:<br /><br />https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?wfo=sew&sid=KBLI&num=72<br /><br />We did have the lights flicker 2 or 3 times around 6 pm, so I assume some power lines were affected in the Bellingham area. PSE must have a fair number of outgages in the Puget Sound area as its outage website page is not accessible.<br /><br />I see the NWS has extended the High Wind Warning to 10 pm, but I'm not sure why. The NWS Weather and Hazards viewer seems to show more happening to the south, but the forecast seemed to indicate that the most intense activity would be to the south:<br /><br />https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true&wfo=sew<br /><br />Is this likely to reintensify in this area or is the storm moving in toward the south? It's confusing to me.MAC in Bellinghamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00951163853106956325noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-57285006392801678802018-12-14T18:33:16.051-08:002018-12-14T18:33:16.051-08:00Uncanny how accurate this blog was...as I watch my...Uncanny how accurate this blog was...as I watch my backyard tent lift off for parts unknown. slagelwahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00958424315191759509noreply@blogger.com