tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post470267983054257502..comments2024-03-28T03:08:44.068-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: The Genius of Crowd Weather ForecastingCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-91510859200915220522019-04-05T01:06:11.596-07:002019-04-05T01:06:11.596-07:00
Or maybe they just watched the Weather Channel?? ...<br />Or maybe they just watched the Weather Channel?? According to ForcastAdviser, the Weather Channel was the tops for Seattle last month. Near the top for 2018 <br /><br />https://www.forecastadvisor.com/Snapehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10191939953231437312noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-19053734836720987722019-04-04T12:26:58.420-07:002019-04-04T12:26:58.420-07:00Interesting, Cliff!
Fold-It, if I remember the na...Interesting, Cliff!<br /><br />Fold-It, if I remember the name correctly, was developed at UW Computer Science and Engineering. It was a video game designed to solve difficult scientific questions. They had some success using a group of gamers who solved their first question. I don't remember all of the details, but your example and theirs reminds us people can sometimes achieve more working together. <br /><br />Sharonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01122154083786146743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-38087346490248356992019-04-04T06:50:42.637-07:002019-04-04T06:50:42.637-07:00This is very similar to a Cold War problem/solutio...This is very similar to a Cold War problem/solution. A Russian sub sunk and we wanted to find it to steal it before the Russians could. So pinning down a location and focusing a search area was the most important thing. So the Navy took a room full of experts in soviet tactics, movements, wrecks and hydrology. The admiral in charge asked them to work independently and pinpoint exactly where they thought the sub was sunk based on its last known location. The admiral then averaged all the "guesses". The sub was nearly Exactly where the average of the guesses pinned it. We then took on the task of attempting to raise a missile from the bottom of the ocean. Read "Blind Man's Bluff"...a fascinating book.Somebodyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14024443041518305326noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-67445798781392294042019-04-03T22:30:17.186-07:002019-04-03T22:30:17.186-07:00Fascinating. I'm going to get the book from my...Fascinating. I'm going to get the book from my library. Thanks for tip.Ludwigs60https://www.blogger.com/profile/13474476767824619067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-35250408355101661492019-04-03T09:40:03.439-07:002019-04-03T09:40:03.439-07:00Thank you, Cliff, for your interesting blog on Cro...Thank you, Cliff, for your interesting blog on Crowd Weather Forecasting. As far as elections....that's something even I, a non- scientist, can easily "forecast". Given the fact that our political "climate" hasn't changed in a very, very long time and doesn't look like it's going to change soon, I can guarantee it's going to be more of the same.Twinklehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02994422771379900601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-23814200086701059282019-04-03T09:04:11.148-07:002019-04-03T09:04:11.148-07:00The real test, of course, requires enough rounds t...The real test, of course, requires enough rounds to iron out random fluctuations. For example, if the students guess worse, but the variance of the student average is still big enough that 20% of the time their average beats the pros, who also have week-to-week variance, there haven't been enough rounds compiled for a definitive contest.<br /><br />If a group of students without self-calibration and limited information outperforms the pros, the pros are screwing up badly.John Vidalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09871768524749705799noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-9506314841214502142019-04-02T22:52:35.560-07:002019-04-02T22:52:35.560-07:00The National Weather Service issues Zone Forecasts...The National Weather Service issues Zone Forecasts out to seven days; Fire Weather Planning Forecast; Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts; Marine Forecasts; Hydrology Forecasts; Recreation Forecasts; issue watches, warnings, and advisories; coordinate those forecasts; respond to media and public inquiries, etc., but your students are forecasting for a single point for a couple of parameters. Who would do better? A student who has to learn and is tested on one chapter from a textbook or a student who has to learn and test on the entire textbook?KIm Van Vleethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02904354401874279018noreply@blogger.com