tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post4794887453593783443..comments2024-03-28T10:16:44.231-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: The Big Shift in Our WeatherCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-30548022925371487282011-12-26T10:57:04.936-08:002011-12-26T10:57:04.936-08:00Elf said "hey hey hey. Tonights free sample M...Elf said "hey hey hey. Tonights free sample MSL and 850hPa EURO shows a decent landfall storm at 168hrs. First run I'd always discredit it. But this year, I'm running with it, lol. Nerdy sense of humor." December 24, 2011 12:23~~~~~~~~~~~ I saw that too! The nws is concerned about the friday night storm, but the sunday storm looks way more intense to me. This could get interesting, maybe? Welcome back La Nina!ILoveWinter!https://www.blogger.com/profile/15703499652749442706noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-35866735447593946912011-12-26T10:04:36.271-08:002011-12-26T10:04:36.271-08:00Cliff~ the nws seems to be watching the friday sto...Cliff~ the nws seems to be watching the friday storm quite closely... Is it just a stronger than usual system or something to be really ac concerned about (like the 2006 storm?). Also, sundays storm looks like it may have even stronger winds...what's your take on these storms?Windlover2https://www.blogger.com/profile/16744849541022810499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-27553089790491598992011-12-26T08:22:47.074-08:002011-12-26T08:22:47.074-08:00Cliff - I live in Poulsbo, and yesterday we had a ...Cliff - I live in Poulsbo, and yesterday we had a really unusual event - at least according to NOAA. The temperature rose 16 degrees in an hour, and then fell again over the next 3 hours - the wind shifted and gusted - you can see it in the 3 day history starting about 6AM in Quilcene. thought you might have some interest in this very local event, as well as an explanation..?oscarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00781859138048595180noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-1667457642998069852011-12-25T21:31:44.674-08:002011-12-25T21:31:44.674-08:00I'm still pretty amazed that--with all the vas...I'm still pretty amazed that--with all the vast amounts of meteorological modeling and super-computers, the mountains of data and experience of people like Cliff Mass--how weather forecasting can be so imperfect (or completely wrong!).<br /><br />"It all ends this weekend." ...??<br /><br />On Saturday in Ballard there was unbridled sunshine with beautiful clear views of the Olympics.<br /><br />On Sunday we had less than 0.01" of rain during a very brief event. Even now, as I type this at 9:30pm...I see the glow of Jupiter high in the starry night sky.<br /><br />To think that one can forecast what El Nino/La Nina will do a year from now seems a bit nutty when this weekend's forecast was so completely off.<br /><br />Why not just flip coin?huckle-chuckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15603360895090950328noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-47753963122778580712011-12-24T09:37:03.300-08:002011-12-24T09:37:03.300-08:00El Niño / ENSO-neutral conditions next year?El Niño / ENSO-neutral conditions next year?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06819620688140306837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-43383359826655963892011-12-24T02:46:02.082-08:002011-12-24T02:46:02.082-08:00http://focustaiwan.tw/ShowNews/WebNews_Detail.aspx...http://focustaiwan.tw/ShowNews/WebNews_Detail.aspx?ID=201112240009&Type=aTOD Taiwan has had no sunshine... a bit weird for them in December.<br /><br />I'm not sad about the lack of snow and actually hope it continues into January. My husband is having major heart surgery next month and I'm going to have to manage the kids and driving to Seattle every day on my own... I HATE driving in snow!JewelyaZhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09434569437851248356noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-6803703006540565012011-12-24T00:23:09.158-08:002011-12-24T00:23:09.158-08:00hey hey hey. Tonights free sample MSL and 850hPa E...hey hey hey. Tonights free sample MSL and 850hPa EURO shows a decent landfall storm at 168hrs. First run I'd always discredit it. But this year, I'm running with it, lol. Nerdy sense of humor.Buddyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13773392812050013355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-51545311109954297242011-12-24T00:08:49.782-08:002011-12-24T00:08:49.782-08:00OH please no. I hope you're not hinting at an ...OH please no. I hope you're not hinting at an El Nino next winter. I can't handle another warm, dry, and boring winter. Why can't we just have a normal neutral winter. I use to cheer for La nina, but last winter was a dud and this winter has been more boring, so far..... I'm still holding out hope for La Nina in mid January through March, but it has a lot of work to do.montyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17821383476661299811noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-8375322542881911732011-12-23T23:08:40.041-08:002011-12-23T23:08:40.041-08:00Justin W.
Sounds like you know what you are talkin...Justin W.<br />Sounds like you know what you are talking about- thanks for the info! I won't be holding my breath for snow any time soon. (But I might go get my car washed- that seems to always bring snow...)snapdragonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10052978249380402838noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-72228092256626944112011-12-23T22:16:32.176-08:002011-12-23T22:16:32.176-08:00Thanks for being the bearer of better news. We'...Thanks for being the bearer of better news. We'll take it. But its still not anywhere near to a snowy pattern. <br /><br />I would estimate my particular location in E. Wash. has a brown Christmas 1 in every 7 to 10 years. Even worse, our surrounding ridges up to 5000+ ft don't even have a flake on them. Thats probably 1 in every 40 to 50 years. Maybe unprecendented.smokejumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05358322512081660205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-17589436195194266972011-12-23T22:09:59.501-08:002011-12-23T22:09:59.501-08:00"Deathly afraid..."
Thanks for the chuc..."Deathly afraid..."<br /><br />Thanks for the chuckle, Cliff!Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08275580535017975456noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-88504024274975112982011-12-23T18:33:03.091-08:002011-12-23T18:33:03.091-08:00Mother Nature's "gift" can suck it. ...Mother Nature's "gift" can suck it. It is winter - where is the cold and rain and snow!? Now THAT would be a gift! :)Sillzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07736380846602624595noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-77990564154875473662011-12-23T16:12:59.926-08:002011-12-23T16:12:59.926-08:00@Snapdragon,
I'm an amateur meteorologist in ...@Snapdragon,<br /><br />I'm an amateur meteorologist in the Portland area (amateur meaning I have a degree but I haven't gotten a job yet). I run a forecast for the Portland area, so you can imagine I keep an eye out for the possibility of snow. Sadly, I'm not seeing any real snow event conditions developing in the longer models (384h out), but I don't have access to as many models as Cliff probably does so maybe he has seen something more promising.<br /><br />What I've seen has been along the lines of the jet stream continuing to aim right for us, or close to us, at least through the first week of January. But that could always change.<br /><br />I know I'm no Cliff, but I just thought I'd give my 2 cents.<br /><br />Cliff,<br /><br />Given that both of these La Nina's have had a shift in the position of the ridge (this year's obviously being much more pronounced), I was wondering if there is some thoughts that maybe an ENSO neutral or El Nino 2012 would end up being more interesting than you might think at first. I guess I'm just sort of mulling ideas around in my head. I don't have any meteorologists around me to discuss this sort of stuff with.<br /><br />Anyways, sorry for the long post.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14468734038469683964noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-6130784952193054982011-12-23T11:44:50.260-08:002011-12-23T11:44:50.260-08:00Cliff,
It might be a bit premature to make a fore...Cliff,<br /><br />It might be a bit premature to make a forecast for next winter. According to Klaus Wolter at NOAA:<br /><br />"I believe the odds for this La Niña event to continue right through early spring (March-April 2012) are higher than 50%. Beyond that, it is worth noting that of the ten two-year La Niña events between 1900 and 2009, four ended up as a three-year event, so I would put the odds for this to occur in 2012-13 at 40% right now. Interestingly, the other six all switched to El Niño, leaving no ENSO-neutral case. Will be interesting to see how 2012 evolves."osu_wxmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08154940081680368866noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-75704672145537920732011-12-23T11:10:32.110-08:002011-12-23T11:10:32.110-08:00Well, I hope we don't mess up the record dry D...Well, I hope we don't mess up the record dry December, but I would like some snow. <br /><br />Whaddya think? Snow in the Portland/Vancouver area any time soon?<br /><br />Merry Christmas and thanks for all the data you provide!snapdragonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10052978249380402838noreply@blogger.com