tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post4901289470196830208..comments2024-03-28T23:07:35.632-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: How much snow?Cliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-42691512463887595292010-11-22T07:43:40.216-08:002010-11-22T07:43:40.216-08:00Accumulating snow in Shoreline. Less than an inch ...Accumulating snow in Shoreline. Less than an inch but definitely sticking.<br /><br />Prettier than rain!jno62https://www.blogger.com/profile/07471604978940553463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-73360035254435824772010-11-22T07:39:22.263-08:002010-11-22T07:39:22.263-08:00Sammamish, snowing respectably and sticking to the...Sammamish, snowing respectably and sticking to the roads in places where they haven't put de-ice....<br /><br />7:35am MondayTeresahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09704607178106828945noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-49738245427197038352010-11-22T07:36:14.576-08:002010-11-22T07:36:14.576-08:00Well, my kids are thrilled. We have half an inch ...Well, my kids are thrilled. We have half an inch on the ground in North Seattle. Its enough for a slushy snowball!Shannonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13865361028544783972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-75387410734523436822010-11-22T07:33:51.931-08:002010-11-22T07:33:51.931-08:00So I guess this is what you would call a "bus...So I guess this is what you would call a "bust" forecast Cliff? Sure looks like accumulating snow in Seattle to me!Justin Sweethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13539115050965419053noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-42930543892643753972010-11-22T07:14:36.232-08:002010-11-22T07:14:36.232-08:00WE had wicked wind and we have some snow (not much...WE had wicked wind and we have some snow (not much but it is sticking given it is 27 degrees) at Woodland Park.Donna & Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04288137170747823068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-49259181538154307532010-11-22T06:48:31.414-08:002010-11-22T06:48:31.414-08:00Looked like it was accumlating snow on I-5 on the ...Looked like it was accumlating snow on I-5 on the way in from the south (On the side of I-5..saw accumlating snow), around Southcentersuperdeluxehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16259337903543716035noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-65659842539549609642010-11-22T06:04:01.493-08:002010-11-22T06:04:01.493-08:00Fun to read the progression and hesitation to fore...Fun to read the progression and hesitation to forecast any chance of snow since last Monday from CM. That was the infamous post throwing the local media under the forecasting bus - as CM is find of doing - for daring to anticipate some intriguing weather on the horizon. A little egg on the face here is fun to see. We'll see if it leads to a shift from hating on the media to joining in the fun and appreciating that having fun with a weather message is important. Hi Cliff! Thanks!kosmohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09546113848218616191noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-65977562608076151142010-11-22T05:57:28.915-08:002010-11-22T05:57:28.915-08:00Thanks for the mention of the probability service ...Thanks for the mention of the probability service UW.<br /><br />I saw those single digits and was looking for devils on the streets!<br /><br />Heading out to Neah Bay for Thanksgiving... oping for a good strong storm event while there.Upupaepopshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05840292738185134371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-17450036965793356182010-11-22T03:10:13.230-08:002010-11-22T03:10:13.230-08:00Thx for your snow predictions. In years past you ...Thx for your snow predictions. In years past you have criticized school district closure decisions when the actual weather didn’t warrant closure. I request you refrain from doing so. Those officials are making a forecast + safety decision, and need to err on the side of caution. As you know, forecasting is just that, a statistical prediction. We don’t know for sure until the weather happens. Your criticism of public officials during those embarrassing situations only undermines our faith in government, and we have too much of that these days. Math curriculum, yes, but too much caution….let it go. I remember when students were trapped at our local school and teachers went around the neighborhood looking for sleeping bags and other supplies for the kids. Finding supplies was easy and an adventure here in N Seattle, but perhaps not so easy in other neighborhoods.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06255292202859837498noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-43554966538672328282010-11-22T00:20:41.924-08:002010-11-22T00:20:41.924-08:00For some reason the mesoscale models (MM5 and WRF)...For some reason the mesoscale models (MM5 and WRF) are showing significantly less precipitation than the operationals (NAM and GFS.) 6z NAM is the snowiest yet and shows 0.25" of liquid precip all the way to Everett. Is this a case of the mesoscale models picking up on something the operationals can't see due to their lower resolution or are they overestimating some moisture limiting factor? Hard to tell but seems to me like a compromise is in order. I think Seattle will be near the Norhtern edge of the significant precip but it won't be as far South as the MM5 and probcasts show it. I'm sticking with a 1-2" forecast for Seattle but we'll see. Really impossible to tell at this point. It all hinges on exactly how strong and thus how far North the low will be and it hasn't even formed yet.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08940028429846567780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-30569756091188851512010-11-21T23:50:43.590-08:002010-11-21T23:50:43.590-08:00orcmid--I checked over all the products sent out t...orcmid--I checked over all the products sent out today and everything I checked on the NWS WFO Seattle website is correctly stamped with PST.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-72857204152943904672010-11-21T22:57:19.798-08:002010-11-21T22:57:19.798-08:00Michael said "Models are saying no snow yet t...Michael said "Models are saying no snow yet the NWS is saying 1-3", is there any specific reason for this?"<br /><br />It's explained in the 345PM SUN AFD ... the NWS forecasters think the models underestimate the precip in this sort of situation.<br /><br />Why an advisory?<br /><br />AS FAR AS WHAT OFTEN CAN BECOME A HODGE PODGE OF ADVISORIES...I FOUND THE SIMPLEST WAY TO DEAL WITH MISC SPOTTER REPORTS TODAY OF AN INCH OR TWO HERE AND THERE WAS TO GET A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UP. THE WEBCAMS WERE MORE WINTERY AT 11AM THAN THEY ARE AT 3PM...BUT WHERE THERE WAS PRECIP TODAY IT COULD GET SLICK OVERNIGHT. I MAINLY NEED TO HAVE SOMETHING UP THRU MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH OVER THE AREA.<br /><br />and <br /><br />Why the 1" to 3" comments?<br /><br />AT THE UPPER LEVELS THIS NEXT NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO MORE OF AN UPPER LOW...MORE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A BETTER VORTICITY FIELD AND SUCH. AT THE SURFACE THE MODELS STILL KEEP THE MAIN BOUNDARY AND SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT ON THE MODIFIED ARCTIC FRONT...WHICH RUNS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THRU SW WA. THE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE NAM SORT OF TRACKS SIMILARLY FROM THE CENTRAL WA COAST TO THE SOUTH CASCADES DURING THE DAY MONDAY...PRESSURES FELL ABOUT 2MB/3HRS THIS AFTERNOON ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND THEN SW WA WITH THIS IMPULSE...I WOULD WANT TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON PRES FALLS MONDAY. THAT SAID THE NAM ONLY HAS A 1006MB LOW JUST NW OF GRAYS HARBOR AT DAYBREAK MONDAY...ONLY DROPPING IT A FEW MILLIBARS BY THE TIME IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH CASCADES AFTERNOON. THAT IS NOT THE SORT OF SYSTEM ONE WOULD PUT OUT A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WARNING FOR. HERE IS THE 18Z NAM SLP FCST AND 3HR PCPN ENDING 10AM (image) AND A 500MB HEIGHT FCST WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT (image). THE FCST IS A BALANCE BETWEEN THE MODELS...WHICH ARE NOT ESPECIALLY WET...AND THE EXPERIENCE OF SEEING UPPER LOWS DROP OVER WRN WA AND TRIGGER MORE PRECIP THAN IS SOMETIMES FCST BY THE SIMULATIONS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THE UPPER LOW TRIGGERS A MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE OF PCPN MONDAY WHICH GIVES MORE UNPREDICTABLE AND BRIEF BUT MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL. <br /><br />And they get shot less for overestimation than underestimation, I think :-)Kevin Purcellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18157202870194603923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-20810514500704197772010-11-21T22:27:36.175-08:002010-11-21T22:27:36.175-08:00It seems the Probcast program does not have the ab...It seems the Probcast program does not have the ability to forecast below zero degrees. Here in the Methow Valley NOAA is forecasting a low of -8 on Monday, -21 on Tuesday and -6 on Wednesday (real temps - no wind chill or anything) but the probcast just says -0. <br /><br />I was thinking about defrosting our 30 lb turkey in a bucket of water outside like I did last year, but I guess that's not going to happen...MicroMethowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12734082634555300097noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-51536020007165281212010-11-21T22:03:30.786-08:002010-11-21T22:03:30.786-08:003.5 inches in Enumclaw.....ummmmm try 5 inches off...3.5 inches in Enumclaw.....ummmmm try 5 inches off my back porch in town....I don't know where they get their measurements, but remeasure please....still light flurries and just got the call that Enumclaw schools are closed!paintloverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02163478974713575981noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-2456378676882019102010-11-21T21:49:14.025-08:002010-11-21T21:49:14.025-08:00Models are saying no snow yet the NWS is saying 1-...Models are saying no snow yet the NWS is saying 1-3", is there any specific reason for this?<br /><br />Experience with lows and the interactions and arctic air masses maybe?<br /><br />Modified Arctic Boundary?Michael Snyderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06230219537755848399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-83470448089898372192010-11-21T21:46:35.851-08:002010-11-21T21:46:35.851-08:00Was just at the movies at Bellis Fair and the wind...Was just at the movies at Bellis Fair and the wind is outrageous in northern part of Bellingham tonight. Back at our house on Alabama Hill in eastern Bellingham we can hear the wind to the north, but it is much lower speed here.Jay_Northhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14479390162942250293noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-61533818952501711602010-11-21T21:35:36.687-08:002010-11-21T21:35:36.687-08:00Uh, would someone who creates those weather adviso...Uh, would someone who creates those weather advisories please notice that we haven't been in PDT for some time now. <br /><br />Not momentous, but, um, it helps to demonstrate attention to detail.orcmidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15720194709820430236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-21379621778297921502010-11-21T21:06:22.706-08:002010-11-21T21:06:22.706-08:00Thanks for mentioning the problem with the minimum...Thanks for mentioning the problem with the minimum temps on probcast. I was wondering about the huge difference between it and NWS.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-35017119428175562222010-11-21T21:01:35.194-08:002010-11-21T21:01:35.194-08:00My poor kids. They've been hobbling around wi...My poor kids. They've been hobbling around with their toes crossed all day to no avail.Katyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03043976774509912799noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-22310903125665012802010-11-21T20:56:52.664-08:002010-11-21T20:56:52.664-08:00I've really got to rant a little about Probcas...I've really got to rant a little about Probcast; It's performance during last December's cold spell was horrible.... and they *still* haven't fixed it?<br /> Also, I don't think I've ever seen the chance of precip under 10%, even when they were predicting clear, sunny skies.<br /> They really should take that thing off-line until they get it working.jr05452https://www.blogger.com/profile/13246294632025544156noreply@blogger.com