tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post5421440258554197992..comments2024-03-28T23:07:35.632-07:00Comments on Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Addressing the Stagnation of U.S. Operational Numerical Weather PredictionCliff Mass Weather Bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13948649423540350788noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-928753917200618172018-08-10T18:37:21.922-07:002018-08-10T18:37:21.922-07:00You cannot possibly manage all that diverse talent...You cannot possibly manage all that diverse talent that easily.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14616246256405797652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-65421742373225706482018-08-02T21:42:13.099-07:002018-08-02T21:42:13.099-07:00@John K I think many people - myself among them - ...@John K I think many people - myself among them - recognize the difference between constructive vs. destructive competition. For an example of the former, consider the world of sports: Would athletes continue to improve and to break records without competition to motivate them and spur them on? <br /><br />How about business, industry and technology: Would businesses innovate and deliver better products at lower costs if competitors didn't make these achievements necessary? Is it telling that the opposite of healthy economic competition isn't harmony and progress, but rather monopoly?<br /><br />Would the United States have accomplished its moon landings - perhaps our species defining scientific feat, even to this day - without the heat of a geopolitical rivalry to keep us focused and determined to succeed?<br /><br />Have you ever met anyone who achieved a successful life without occasionally setting out to do something faster, better and smarter than his or her rivals?<br /><br />It's only human to benchmark oneself against others and to draw motivation from the desire to be recognized as the very best - at least if one considers an activity to be truly important. When you harness that desire (and good luck trying to suppress it - you may not like the unintended consequences) then great things are possible.<br /><br />Of course, how to define "constructive" competition is the big question. Some key elements come to mind - for example, recognizing that your competitors deserve the same respect and recognition for their achievements as you expect for yours. Another might be to reject the idea that competition in one arena requires the competitors to play a zero-sum game anywhere else they meet, as well. Yet another might be to agree that in many cases, the point of "winning' is to have the privilege of sharing an achievement with everyone else - i.e. medical advances, basic scientific knowledge.<br /><br />Or maybe it's as simple as doing everything you can to beat the hell out of your rivals when you hear the starting gun - but also looking forward to meeting them all for a drink when the race is over. <br /><br />It just seems to me that it's more useful to turn competition to everyone's advantage than it is to insist that competition is always a zero-sum game and that it needs to go away. It's not going anywhere, and history is full of examples why that CAN be a very, very good thing if it's handled correctly. And I think that's just as true when it comes to the big things - the things we're talking about here - as it is of the small things.<br /><br />I can't think of a better way to get more powerful and accurate models than encouraging competing ideas and approaches. But then again, I also can't think of a reason why something this important and useful to saving lives and property wouldn't be shared - think in terms of Open Source software - once we've sorted out the winning approach.<br /><br />Or to boil things down one more time: It's not about whether we compete. It's about how we compete.Foohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03929520923930532337noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-44196074230961466612018-08-01T22:10:02.924-07:002018-08-01T22:10:02.924-07:00@TW B Performance based incentives sound like a go...@TW B Performance based incentives sound like a good idea, and there are likely to be ways to do that using quantitative and completely objective criteria. <br /><br />Of course there need to be common sense limits to that approach - for example, it's not a good way to assess some types of basic research or experimental work far removed from operational uses but still very important. Foohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03929520923930532337noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-54881202199132068902018-08-01T18:46:31.704-07:002018-08-01T18:46:31.704-07:00Dr. Mass has written about this phenomenon before,...Dr. Mass has written about this phenomenon before, and I’m sure he could elaborate again. Quit yer whinin'!https://www.blogger.com/profile/11171062635053936642noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-14299387583836805872018-08-01T17:03:41.485-07:002018-08-01T17:03:41.485-07:00"Where there's a will, darlin', sure ..."Where there's a will, darlin', sure 'nuf there's a way." I agree with Mr. Neilley, don't give it all to NOAA, they're all oceans, you know that. Thanks for bringing this issue forward.jimijrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05575435707603812489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-20627265495582966072018-08-01T15:17:20.000-07:002018-08-01T15:17:20.000-07:00Any thoughts on the nomination of a meteorologist,...Any thoughts on the nomination of a meteorologist, Dr Kevin Droegemeier, to White House Office of Science and Technology Policy? Seems related to this topic.stevemcnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12304154547084827410noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-954234071146314462018-08-01T14:26:45.925-07:002018-08-01T14:26:45.925-07:00Unknown - I've wondered the same thing. Why d...Unknown - I've wondered the same thing. Why do we Americans think absolutely everything must be handled as a competition, with us as the "winner"? In many cases, like this one for example, that mentality does us more harm than good. I think the more mature cultures of the world have moved past that.John K.https://www.blogger.com/profile/03575682658318674003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-69165804825668342262018-08-01T08:50:36.107-07:002018-08-01T08:50:36.107-07:00Europe seems to handle government sponsored techno...Europe seems to handle government sponsored technology better than we do be it weather, nuclear power, trains, rapid transit, wind energy, and hydroponic farming to name a few.<br />One suggestion would be to award bonuses to the senior managers based on how well the models have worked by polling working level meteorologists (including Dr. Mass). This would be in lieu of them awarding themselves bonuses based on their own assessment which seems to be the norm in the federal government. Might work wonders.Weather Devoteehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07071334949599205140noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-6698514374660401882018-08-01T08:35:41.755-07:002018-08-01T08:35:41.755-07:00Why is wx research a matter of us having "com...Why is wx research a matter of us having "competitors" rather than there being worldwide cooperation?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10618044020965766974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-84161529543043671882018-08-01T07:49:14.314-07:002018-08-01T07:49:14.314-07:00Fascinating article in the NYT.
https://www.nytime...Fascinating article in the NYT.<br />https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/01/magazine/climate-change-losing-earth.htmlDiscreet Charmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17993685338153818967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-42865903390704322502018-08-01T07:13:15.009-07:002018-08-01T07:13:15.009-07:00JeffB. Details please on "many of these gover...JeffB. Details please on "many of these governmental organizations have also become highly politicized and often focus too much of their resources on climate change advocacy.."Discreet Charmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17993685338153818967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-32011467391392699062018-07-31T18:38:30.012-07:002018-07-31T18:38:30.012-07:00Make the Climate Great Again.Make the Climate Great Again.Alexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11205752419540502278noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-72444368672740616942018-07-31T17:48:17.397-07:002018-07-31T17:48:17.397-07:00Me Blair, what was the date of the ‘failed’ Chicag...Me Blair, what was the date of the ‘failed’ Chicago snow forecast? Not the Groundhog’s Day Blizzard in 2011. That had a 48-hour lead time Blizzard Watch from the NWS. The city was extremely prepared, with one section of LSD blocked by a stalled bus but the rest of the roads around town virtually empty.Eric Lenninghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17300522107509298630noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-20098586073040003362018-07-31T13:10:45.868-07:002018-07-31T13:10:45.868-07:00Don’t forget that many of these governmental organ...Don’t forget that many of these governmental organizations have also become highly politicized and often focus too much of their resources on climate change advocacy. You should contact the President. He seems eager to slash and burn the inefficiency and bloat of our federal government.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02059221822159483655noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-25855709503592428832018-07-31T12:46:45.126-07:002018-07-31T12:46:45.126-07:00I would love to see this blog post get national at...I would love to see this blog post get national attention and see things change.<br /><br />This is a list I quickly put together on how to submit tips to news organizations.<br /><br />ABC: While many ABC affiliates allow tips via phone, Tweet, Test and email, the main ABC organization only accepts a web form submission. Google “abc news tip” and choose the “ABC News Tip Line – ABC News” link. <br /><br />Associated Press: Only allows anonymous news tips. Android/Apple apps - Signal (+1-202-556-1927) and WhatsApp (+1-202-556-1927). There are also instructions on how to submit via Secure Drop. Google “AP News Tips” and choose the AP News Tips – Associated Press link. <br /><br />BBC: Android/Apple app - WhatsApp (+44 7555 173285). Text a tip to 61124. Note: I have no idea if these would cost more to send from US devices. Email – haveyoursay@bbc.co.uk.<br />CNN: Tweet a tip to @TeamCNN. Text a tip to 772937. Phone – 404-827-1500 option 1.<br /><br />FoxNews: Tweet a tip to @foxnews. Email – foxnewstips@foxnews.com. Phone – 1-888-369-4762.<br /><br />NBC News Group: Android/Apple apps - Signal (+1-646-858-9310), Telegram (+1-646-858-9310) and WhatsApp (+1-646-858-9310). Email – tips@nbcuni.com.<br />Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11465811501000927918noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-82846169764305219742018-07-31T11:30:13.534-07:002018-07-31T11:30:13.534-07:00Cliff, You have articulated the problem well. Im...Cliff, You have articulated the problem well. Implicit in your blog, but I'll state it here explicitly, is that the success of the ECMWF is arguably the best example of what can happen when the research community is deeply embedded in and working with the operational community towards forecasting superiority. Your proposed solution is a start towards that for the US, including adopting a Boulder-based center. However, solutions confined to NOAA are insufficient and other agencies must be included, even though it is a much heavier lift as you point out. At a minimum, the National Science Foundation has to adopt the goal of achieving national forecasting superiority, including deep alignment and coordination with NOAA. Otherwise, NCAR and a lot of the NSF-funded academic community will not be sufficiently motivated to work on a holistic national goal, hence perpetuating the limited coordination that exists today between the research and operational communities.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01791162979043561922noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-88494020149432528192018-07-31T10:51:08.270-07:002018-07-31T10:51:08.270-07:00As I am sure you are well aware, this is not a new...As I am sure you are well aware, this is not a new problem. The National Research Council published a nice review of a major component of this problem in 2000 titled "From Research to Operations in Weather Satellites and Numerical Weather Prediction: Crossing the Valley of Death." I spent over 40 years working in the space weather world and saw this problem close up and personal the entire time. I am afraid this is a problem that is beyond the capability, or perhaps the will, of the two main players, funding agencies on the government side and researchers on the academic side, to resolve.Seattle Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00686243946507691525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-23983007899529273582018-07-31T10:42:28.624-07:002018-07-31T10:42:28.624-07:00Around ten years ago I was watching the various fo...Around ten years ago I was watching the various forecasts concerning a possible snowstorm that could be coming down the pike to the Chicago area. Even back then, I had grown to distrust all of the cited sources except for the European model. With less than 48 hours to go, the laggards had predicted a few inches to drop, while the Euro model had increased it's forecast to a major snowstorm. The result? An enormous storm that dumped over twenty inches in less than 12 hours in the city proper, leaving hundreds of motorists stranded on Lake Shore Drive. The city was caught unprepared, it took almost a week to dig out the city, something that rarely happens in the winter. Never again. Eric Blairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09376653214948517679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7478606652950905956.post-62497066685572108942018-07-31T10:10:14.314-07:002018-07-31T10:10:14.314-07:00Nonsense, Europe has 500 million people hence much...Nonsense, Europe has 500 million people hence much larger talent pool. Furthermore, France, UK (second best model), Germany all have their own global model so you cannot say that resources are spent much more efficiently. Wargens Heisergnarrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10763062308358577526noreply@blogger.com